Gold
	S&P &Futures (Click for latest)	Pre Market Futures (7:30)
		FTSE	+25
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		DAX	+35
Hang Seng +-	Nikkei +-	DOW	+60
		S&P	-+6
		Nasdaq	+12

 

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Ill say hello and post some thoughts.

Basically these next three weeks are make or break time for the market in the US and ultimately that means European markets also, which have rallied from there March lows. Since the beginning of 2001 each time earnings season came around the recovery hopes kept getting put on the long finger, that is until March this year, when they decided that the recovery time was now. Well now we shall see what the mass of companies reporting over the 3 weeks ahead say of there second half prospects.

Stocks are way overpriced at current levels, how can a possible Bull market be launched from where we are now, on a price-earnings ratio of 33 for the S&P 500 Index. That's nearly twice as much as fair value. It would have to create history to kick start from where we are now.

Those sitting on the Boards of these companies who have the inside view of what is really happening cant sell quick enough. If these people have no confidence, then why should anyone else?

Commercial traders are Bearish with a vengeance; they have been busy selling while Joe Public is still buying. Take a look at the S+P 500 Commitments of Traders Report chart below and you will see that they bought before the Rally started, before small traders jumped on the band wagon, now they are calling a top and shorting yet again long before the CNBC disciple buying public have smelt the coffee. Take a look at the NASDAQ 100 chart and see how they are now even more bearish than they were in 2001.

http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm

Any Investors out there have to get away from the buy-and-hold mindset. This is going to be a trading market. I would really like to see a retest of the recent highs and the .618% #s of 1019/20 on SPX and 9350 area on the DOW or 9474 if the CNBC machine with there never ending parade of Bullish guests can suck in some more little guys. But when all is said and done Im of the belief that 3 weeks is the Maximum till this Bear market rally is buried, these 3 weeks should be quite choppy as is typical topping out activity, the usual buy the dip Bull mode is deeply engrained.

its wild out here today huh, all the buildings still standing after the long US w/e, so thats bullish.

Remember the day after the 4th of july holiday last year, Dow + 400, got to love it

Curbs triggered at +180 on the Dow, lets see if the programs now turned off change anything, they account for about 1/3 of the action.

We are desperately close to a top here, just need one more climatic buying day and i'll be happy to short into it.

U.S. stock markets still bleeding cash-UBS report

NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - Investors withdrew a net $595 million from U.S. stock markets in the week ended July 4, UBS reported on Monday, pushing the four-week moving average of UBS-tracked equity flows to the lowest level since March 1999.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030707/markets_forex_ubs_1.html

Looks like i've Commandeered this thread.... lol, is always so quiet around here?

Da Bear
Just upgrade
we're lots of fun on the traders room,same thread:-))

Thanks Jules, will check that out

CS. is a short long!!

Enjoy the ride!!

:-)

Jeff