Gold
	S&P &Futures (Click for latest)	Pre Market Futures (7:30)
		FTSE	-25
		TechMark	-4
		DAX	-30
Hang Seng -11	Nikkei -4	DOW	+8
		S&P	-0.5
		Nasdaq	-3.3

 

News Headlines:    US:  late-afternoon selling knocked the major averages well off session highs The FTSE 100 index is set to open up to 25 points lower but a big day of results from the United States and a speech from Chairman Alan Greenspan could ignite the market later. A survey shows that growth in retail sales rebounded in June helped by the warm weather. The commercial property market has slumped further in the second quarter of this year but demand is declining at its slowest pace for over a year Publicis has sought to quell persistent speculation it is plotting to derail a takeover of UK advertising firm Cordiant McCarthy Stone: speculation that housebuilder Persimmon has approached the board about a possible share exchange offer. Reuters Group expect the firm to defy the market's worst fears when it reports half-year results next week Calendar All GMT United Kingdom (F)inals (I)nterim United States (Click Flag) Europe & World Tue 14th       Reckitt Benckiser Trading StatementBritish Airways (AGM), Premier Oil (AGM), SSL International (AGM) 08.55  BOEs King & Lomax Testify to Parliamentary Treasury Committee ope: Philips (Q2) 09.30  June RPIX y/y 3.0% exp. Intel (Q2), Motorola (Q2) 13.00 US July Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.65 exp. 13.30 US June Advance Retail Sales 0.4% exp. 15.00 US Greenspan Testimony to Congress 10.00  July German ZEW Index 25.0 exp. Good Trading!   David@FTSEDOW.com    www.FTSEDOW.com            Pivot Calculator

A Toad's Eye View of the Pond
S. Bartley



14/07 What a difference a day makes! Everything tickyty-boo and then a rogue trade spooks the market and shows its true colours. VIX rose, PC ratio way too bullish - everything now suggesting we are in a decline phase.


Analysis for 15/07 - We got the bullish move higher but rather than the shallow wave 4 I was expecting, the down move became more severe. This has either left a 3 wave up move or a 5 wave move with a truncated 5th wave. Either way, neither case is bullish. For tomorrow, we are pretty oversold and there are 5 waves down that can be counted from the top, so I expect we could rally back to the 4th wave area 9220, to allow the next leg down. But I think we may have seen a secondary top on the DOW today, plus new highs on the S&P and NAS to give us the bearish market divergences common at tops.

Th Daily: Cannot paste his chart but its CHOPPY, sure he will post it later on the MAM front page!

Good morning,

I am not sure what to make of the spike lower yesterday. It seems to me that
we are getting these spikes more and more frequently. It could have been a
genuine mistake or it could have been traders' front running a major sell
program.

Either way the SPX and the SPU3 both printed a nice double top. The market
closed in the low quarter of the day after a breakout attempt. The pattern
was classic with a first hour high and a failure to regain morning highs led
to sell-off. For those who use candlestick analysis the market printed a
shooting star on the daily chart. I would like to see the market print a
5-wave decline at this point but if we simply hold right here above 1000 in
the SPX, we should get another attempt at the highs. If the double top is
taken out I doubt very much the market would stop at 1021. As matter of fact
I think it would signal a move towards 1070. This would coincide with the
Dow approaching 10,000.

If the market gets back above 1008 in the SP futures and then drops below
1002, I think we will see a decline back to 983. Either way I will want to
be short the market below 1000 anyway. Friday is option expiration but I got
no feeling for the direction yet. I will want to be out of shorts if the
SP500 gets above 1008 today.

There are a number of earnings out today and tomorrow, which will no doubt
move the market. Furthermore we have to listen to Allan G and his testimony
to congress. One thing which is puzzling is the fact that the big stocks
like IBM and MSFT have only rallied 6-10% when the tech stocks have rallied
50-100%. I take this as a signal that the fund managers are betting big on
high beta stocks to squeeze the rally for all it is worth. When we turn, and
we will turn at some point, the NASDAQ market will come down much faster
than the other indices.

The daily path was very precise yesterday but I don't really know at this
stage what to make of it today. The charts indicate that it will be a choppy
affair.

The longer term cycles suggest that yesterday was a top with a decline into
the 18th July, then up until the 25th of July before the big drop in the 9th
of September.

I have included a chart ( thx BigBusiness ) of the Expected Path vs what
happened in the Dow yesterday.

Good luck today

1.42 billion shares traded on the NYSE on Monday. Average volume. The upward volume amounted to 915 million, the downward volume 497 million shares. So the upward volume reached 64% of the total volume.

NDX is Neutral between 1285 and 1306. Its Bullish if it can get away from 1307 could lead back to yesterdays high of 1316, over that 1325/30 then 1350. Bearish under 1285. Going to watch 1307 at the open as the futures seem undecided.

Not overly bullish in the Put/Call #s

OEX $-weighted put/call @ Mon Jul 14 16:20:00 2003: 0.74 (calls: $19389600; puts: $14270100).

QQQ $-weighted put/call @ Mon Jul 14 16:10:00 2003: 0.90 (calls: $4408900; puts: $3961340).

Companies cut capital spending by 14 percent

The average U.S. company was able to pay off its debt in 4.2 years at the end of the first quarter, down from a recent high of 5.1 a year earlier, Fitch Ratings said in a report Tuesday. But lackluster revenue gains contributed little to the belt-tightening. Rather, companies sacrificed capital investment to pay off debt. Companies cut capital spending by 14 percent in the period. "We are not likely to see a general improvement in credit quality, including upgrades, until leverage is reduced through revenue and profit growth, not shrinking business investments," said Robert Grossman, Chief Credit Officer, Fitch Ratings.

DJ White House Sees Record Deficit Of $455B In FY03

DJ White House Sees Record Deficit Of $475B In FY04

barely a bear left in the Qs

OEX $-weighted put/call @ Tue Jul 15 11:40:00 2003: 0.44 (calls: $7178910; puts: $3191620).

QQQ $-weighted put/call @ Tue Jul 15 11:40:00 2003: 0.13 (calls: $11794000; puts: $1504770).