Why are we again at 10.5p bid?

It doesn't add up...

Good Results + Strong buying pre results + Christmas online buying soon = Price drop

Then again some companies that have debt for equity hanging in the balance, poor results and bankruptcy around the corner and they go up!

Why sell now at a loss?

Wont that be a kick in the teeth when we see 13.5p 14p again!

Best of luck all.

I really can kick myself for not taking 13.65p to begin with :/

I know it's anyone's guess but are we going to see a rise anytime soon do you think?

If not soon then what's everyones prediction regarding price and news?

I might have to top up if this price drops any lower!

Best of luck all.

I wish I had taken the 13.65 as well. However, going by what I have read I would have asumed the price would have gone higher. Inverstors Chronicle and Shares Mag both recommend this as a buy.
Anyone have any thoughts on why the share price is going down?

Javid

not to put too fine a point on it "beats the hell out of me"
still holding here.
RTD will recover i have no doubt, time scale tho is another matter.....the service is needed, the market is growing, how much and how quickly is the question....no answers here im afraid

Been following all comments made on rtd for some time now and am having the same thoughts as many other investers.

just read a post on another BB which gives me some encouragement and comfort in my investment.

" The question that this BB asks continually is – what is the value of RTD shares? Is it 8p or less or 20p or more?

How can the correct value be calculated? The best and most accepted method is to predict the future cash flow of the Company and discount this value back to the current day. If the discounted cash flow is better than the current value, you invest, if they are worse then you sell or do not invest. Trying to spot these cash inconsistencies, especially in high growth stocks such as RTD, is the fun, the buzz, the gamble we all take.

So what is the outlook for RTD?

One of the simplest methods is to look at EPS to represent cash flow, so long as the EPS figure has not been “smoothed or tampered with”. As many have pointed out on this BB, the basic EPS of RTD is only 0.16p, so the company looks over valued trading at 68 times earnings. However, to get to the true figure investors will have to look behind the numbers to understand the true cash flow potential in the future. The two areas which causes a great deal of argument is whether exceptional costs and amortisation should be excluded or included.

Exceptional costs – by their very accounting definition are unusual, one off items that distort the accounts from their true underlying position. For RTD some 700K of exceptional charges was posted to the accounts. We have been told that these costs relate to three items:

1 – the cost of terminating two executive directors
2 – the cost of a reorganisation in the US
3 – cost of migration in Australia

What is the effect of terminating two directors – does it help future cash flow? Yes it does help future cash flow. In the 2002 set of accounts the two directors cost some 300k in pay and benefits – without a bonus – therefore, ongoing costs have been saved. The accounts do not disclose the amount paid out, but given that they were on a years notice, I would expect the cost to be at least the 300K cost last year. Therefore, say 350K should be added back to the Basic EPS, to allow for the future saving, so long as they are not replaced.

Does the reorganisation help future cash flows. Again yes, actions like this are only taken to save future costs and must be material to the company to be allowed to be an exceptional cost. On a worse case basis the costs would have a “payback” of one year – normally, it is around 9 months – therefore say 250k minimum should be added back

Finally, the final costs relate to Australia and a migrations/integration cost. Again these costs are targeted at making the business more efficient – which again should save costs, and cash, into the future.

Therefore it is suggested that all the exceptional costs should be added back to the EPS figure to get a truer underlying prediction of cashflow.

Amortisation – there is a great deal of confusion as to the treatment of goodwill and the impact it has on the future of the business.

Amortisation is just an accounting entry – it is meaningless to the future cash flow of the business as it just reflects a past cost that is being depreciated and will not be spent again in the future – hence all city analysts remove the figure from their calculation. It is all good and well looking at the money spend in the past – but that is an emotional attachment, what is important is what is going to be achieved in the future. If you think about it, the whole point of valuing a company is to work out what it worth now, and this cannot be related to what has been spent in the past – the errors of the past cannot be undone.

For everyone’s information, from 2005, when the new international accounting standards are introduced (huge impact for companies), amortisation of goodwill will not be allowed – it will be replaced by a straight impairment test, thus companies that are performing well will not have their goodwill amortised. So there will not be any amortisation figures to adjust for in the future.

Therefore, to get a truer or “normalised” earnings figure – as quoted by city analysts – the basic EPS should be adjusted for both exceptional items and amortisation. Hence, why the Company has published the figure – being 0.69p for the first six months of the year.

Okay – so how reliable is the EPS figure in the accounts of RTD – what scope is there for “adjustments”. Looking at the balance sheet, the company has few assets to manipulate – most being intangible assets and debtors and creditors. Auditors are very sharp on "manipulation" of these items. The Company does not have large fixed assets, which are normally the areas where manipulation can occur, and it does not seem to capitalise development work – again an area of potential for adjusting the p&l. Therefore, the EPS figure would give a fairly true reflection as to current cash flow.

This assessment is further backed up by looking at the consolidated cash flow statement – with the trading operations generating 3.3m – excluding exceptionals - in cash before working capital adjustments – which would be of a one off nature (2m positive) and tax and interest and tangible investments.

So what is the EPS going to be in the full year? The Board has given some very careful wording that the second half will be less than the first half, due to the one offs – but even if the second half is down by 10% (300K) the EPS will be approximately 1.2p for the full year (also cash per share of 1.2p). At this level the company on a forward multiple of only 8/9 – not the 60 times that have been bounced around this BB.

What about future growth? All on this BB agree that the company appears to be in a strong, growing market – revenues are up 11% already so lets say they fall to 7.5% growth, given the wording on operational capacity in the CEO statement, most of this would fall to the bottom line giving a faster growth in EPS. For every 1.5m in additional revenue some 0.1p would add to EPS, if 50% falls to the bottom line before tax. If this 5% growth is projected out for say 15 years, and discounted at say 10% (we would all like to get a 10% return on our money) then the value of the shares would be around 20p each

Can this value be justified by looking at other companies? RTD is pretty unique, however, the most comparable companies around are Datacash in the UK (AIM: DATA) and Cybersource (Nasdaq: CYBS).

Take Datacash – its current market value is some 24m on turnover of 4m for 2003, and a small operating profit. Therefore it is trading at 6 times revenue or 50 times operating profit! RTD on the same multiples would be worth 180M (60 p per share) plus, and RTD is a more robust and balanced company.

Take Cybersource – it has small turnover ($5- $6m per quarter) and is loss making – its market value is US$180m and has a real problem history. If you strip out its cash pile (which is dwindling) then it has an enterprise value of $130m or 80m. Again on the same multiples, RTD would be worth 40p + per share.

Either RTD is massively under valued or the other two are over valued – you choose?

How does RTDs value compare against other PE ratios for technology companies? Looking in the FT, the average is around 30 – but due to some high one offs – if you look at individual companies – stripping out the large ones (FTSE100), then the average is around 16 – 18 times. This would give RTD a price of 23 – 26 p now.

There are other examples to justify a higher price, all leading to the same conclusion – recent tech company sales at a multiple of revenue, etc

Therefore, on the basis of the above RTD looks a screaming buy – so why is it not still powering ahead? RTD has a chequered history, it came to market in the boom – rose massively and has been falling since. PJ Birks well written note demonstrated the history well, the $64,000 question to be answered is “Is the past behind them?” Some are betting it is – some are betting it is not.

The share price has excellent fundamentals – indicating a price of 20p plus in the short term, hence the rampers are right, but the reality is the share price is held back by reputation, the doom-mongers are right and the share price is down at a low 8 times multiple – 10p. On balance some where inthe middle is going to be right, so long as the company does not make any more gaffs.

For all those who are wondering, yes I am now a holder of RTD shares – I have bought in during the last year and I am sitting on a nice profit. The amount I hold will not make me rich, but if I am lucky will allow me to take some profit and buy a decent holiday for my family.

Enjoy RTD, it is fun to try to predict what will happen next – it is a gamble, an interesting challenge and an opportunity. I have not bet my shirt, no one should ever do that, and I think I will at least get my money back if it goes really wrong, but momentum should take the company higher.

Please feel free to post this note onto other BB, which I do not subscribe to. Please do not slander me for giving my views, and most of all…. DYOR"

Food for thought!!!

Very interesting....makes sense, Thanks!

Thanks for that Spacecruiser!
Also having spoken to 3 different brokers this morning on a different topic, I thought I would gain their opinions about RTD and surprisingly all 3 said to buy. They all seem to think the near future will bring good gains and the long term will be even better.
Personally, short term increase will make me a happy bunny!

Good luck everyone!

Javid

RTD is like a slow developer on the rising front it seems, but when it eventually decides to move past 13p+ it will rocket I'm sure, and knowing my luck I'll be on holiday that week...but hopefully not...

announcement of new contract win will get things moving I'm sure.

Jules99

It's crazy because this is a case of the company could help itself if only they would give some news.

The price seems very manipulated once again as it goes down on very little selling!

Surely even the MM's will now want the price to move higher so that they can sell that big pile of shares they have been collecting.

one other thing I just noticed.

The MM's are lowering the bid and the offer very quickly thus tempting people to sell. They then raise the offer to its original level so that they are now buying the shares for 9.5p instead of 10p and now selling them back to you at 10.5p... it stinks it does!

This is the very thing that happened a couple of weeks ago. The bid went down to 12p and then offer was at 12.25p then the ask went quickly back up to 12.75-13p but the bid remained at 12p and as we all know, it went lower still.

Stupid me! I just thought, why didn't I just edit my original message?

There you go Level 2 is showing all MM's bidding 9.5p asking 10.5p!!!

08:12 100,000 BARD 9.5 | 08:12 100,000 BARD 10.5
08:20 100,000 CSFB 9.5 | 08:20 100,000 CSFB 10.5
08:57 100,000 MLSB 9.5 | 08:57 100,000 MLSB 10.5
09:00 100,000 EVO 9.5 | 09:00 100,000 EVO 10.5
09:00 100,000 KLWT 9.5 | 09:00 100,000 KLWT 10.5
09:00 50,000 AITK 9.5 | 09:00 50,000 AITK 10.5
10:04 100,000 WINS 9.5 | 10:04 100,000 WINS 10.5

Nitefly you must have awoken the MM's this morning suddenly..it's alive...

ON THE RISE!!!!!!!

ROLL UP 1.15P...i mean 15p...

Jules99.

haha, maybe we do influence the punters and mm's?

I'm amazed how sentiment and news can change so quickly. Not that it should even have been down in the first place!!!

Best of luck to all.

Directorate Change19/09/2003 09:00:04

Retail Decisions PLC
19 September 2003



RETAIL DECISIONS PLC

JANE TOZER APPOINTED NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

Retail Decisions (ReD), the international supplier of payment card fraud
prevention and payment card services, has appointed Jane Tozer to the Board as a
non-executive director with immediate effect. Ted Tilly, the senior
non-executive director, has indicated his intention to retire from the Board in
due course.

Jane has over 30 years of experience within the Information Technology sector.
She began her career at IBM, holding both technical and marketing positions
before joining Softwright as Chief Executive Officer. Softwright was a software
systems supplier for the retail, IT and banking sectors, which she took from a
start-up to a successful trade sale.

Since 1997, Jane has been a non-executive director of a number of public and
private companies and currently holds non-executive positions on the Boards of
3i European Technology Investment Trust and JPMorgan Fleming Income and Growth
Investment Trust.

Nigel Whittaker, Retail Decisions Chairman, commented:

'Jane provides ReD with highly relevant skills and her experience in the IT,
retail and finance sectors will provide valuable expertise as the Group
continues to develop its portfolio of card payment and fraud prevention services
around the world.

Jane Tozer has the following disclosure requirements under rule 6.F.2(a) of the
UKLA Listing Rules:

Other Current Directorships (all non-executive) Appointed


3i European Technology Trust plc 16 March 2000

JP Morgan Fleming Income & Growth plc 18 November 2002


Previous Directorships within the last five years (all Appointed Resigned
non-executive)


Kaisha Technology Limited March 1998 March 1999

Hutchinson Smith Limited July 1998 October 1999

Riva Group plc March 1999 October 1999

tangozebra Limited September 1999 November 2001

QSP Group plc Feb 2000 October 2001

Mettoni Group plc + subsidiaries: June 2000 December 2002

Protagona plc September 1999 November 2002


Jane Tozer has no disclosures to make in respect of rules 6.F.2(b) to (g) of the
Listing Rules of the London Stock Exchange.

19 September 2003


Enquiries

Retail Decisions plc Tel: 01483 728700

Nigel Whittaker, Chairman

College Hill Tel: 020 7457 2020

Adrian Duffield/Clare Warren

Heard from another BB from someone who knows her. Apparently a very sharp cookie and the fact that shes on board is a very good sign. Judging by the move upwards today the city agrees.

I knew her really well, Went to school together..was the only Girl to acheive 3 STRAIGHT A's and a 'Blue Peter' Badge on the same as her Pet Hamster's Birthday ...

Ask yourselves - How many people who could ever hope to acheive that...???

I know what your thinking...Mr David Blane...sorry I mean 'David Blane'...

Sadly your wrong....ONLY Jane Tozer could...!

So start buying folks...lol...

It's Friday...POETS day...

ta.

Jules99.

As I said a while ago after i bought at 13p and saw a small decline prior to results, i thought results would not change price much. However, they have slipped quite a bit even since then down to around 10p!

The price cant get much lower as i believe this is a company that will give good returns if you hold onto them for a period of time - for next 3 to 6 months anyway.

Through short/medium term, I believe price will get to 15 to 20p and will increase to at least 30p eventually.

What does everyone else think as even Shares magazine etc are tipping them and that was when they were 12.625p!

=============

Connection between Petrol and RTD...?

Help me if I missed this one...wind up?

Forget it!