cpeck12
- 06 Jan 2004 00:32
As most of us already know that the preliminary results of a pivotal European Phase III trial of the BTG's greatest star VARISOLVE were positive.
- Overall response rate in patients (435 patients) treated with VARISOLVE was 83.4%, in line with expectations.
- Established that VARISOLVE is similar in efficacy to conventional treatments (sclerotherapy or surgery) in the treatment of moderate to severe varicose veins.
- The winning factor is that both physicians and patients would welcome this rapid, virtually painless, treatment for varicose veins.
But, the Varisolve US Phase II safety study has been put on clinical hold by FDA, continue to worry investors for about a month now since its announcement. Consequently shares oversold till today. This could be long enough and is an investment opportunity worth monitoring. Any spark of hope could easily double the share price. Base on the assumption that Varisolve may not survive the trails despite additional costs and efforts to do additional tests to accumulate enough proves and statistics or to improve their procedures, which is unlikely although sources suggest that the clinical Hold is more likely to cause a delay of 1-2 years to its commercialisation date, the net current asset value of the company alone is estimated to be around 190 – 250 (consensus from various analyst), excluding any contribution from Varisolve US and Europe. Note that BTG total revenues increased by 35% to 19.1 million (2002: 14.2 million). Investors will bet on the company’s ability to generate enough cash to carry Varisolve through till its commercialisation, which is estimated to be 2005/6/7 in EU and 2007/8/9 US. With institutional investments from Deutsche Bank AG (More than 11%), Amvescap PLC (More than 26%), Bank of New York Europe Limited and many more…, the risk may still remain significant, but definitely one to keep close to your screen. Remember that they have many more high potential projects on parallel development. Opportunity like this don't come often.
Investors are expecting BTG to clarified their strategy and plan to overcome their challenges associated with Varisolve by early 2004. The next important date will be in early February 2004 which may be an opportunity for them to inspire some confidence (2nd Annual BioPartnering North America).
My opinion : Now is the time to get in!!!
cpeck12
- 14 Jan 2004 13:57
- 5 of 57
BTG's chart seems to generate a recovery profile. You might want to have a look.
cpeck12
- 14 Jan 2004 15:52
- 6 of 57
price now 167.25 up 6% since recommendation. Get in while its cheap!!!
cpeck12
- 15 Jan 2004 11:49
- 7 of 57
170.25 now. On track for a good recovery.
cpeck12
- 16 Jan 2004 09:25
- 8 of 57
171.25 now and its mid Jan. 2nd Annual BioPartnering North America is in early Feb.
cpeck12
- 16 Jan 2004 11:36
- 9 of 57
168.25 now. Anything below 200 is still a bargain.
highinterest
- 16 Jan 2004 15:32
- 10 of 57
cpeck, I hold 10k of these at ave 360p. i can't afford to buy more and i can't afford not to!
Doshmaker
- 16 Jan 2004 15:39
- 11 of 57
highinterest - Feel extremely sorry for those like you who owned at 3.50p plus when they lost 60% in a day, what can you do when they drop so fast. Hope you get your mony back - good luck.
highinterest
- 16 Jan 2004 15:50
- 12 of 57
thanks dosh. I still feel optimistic [that's a name for what you feel before you really understand the situation] about the outcome and I do still add when I get liquidity, but I am pouring more into pxc and fto at the moment.
The worst of my bgc crisis came when my broker phoned me on black friday and informed me that he had 'managed' to place my limit order for 7500 at 370p whilst they were falling! By this time they had fallen to 160 and he was advising me to sell as it was a 'very risky play'. When I did sell it cost me a lot of money. He says he acted in good faith and there was no way he could have known he was catching a falling sword. I was in meetings all day so he could not contact me.
We are currently in the ombudsman's hands.
Doshmaker
- 16 Jan 2004 15:55
- 13 of 57
highinterest - Hope it works out for you, I bought into pipex yesterday, looks like a good share for 2004. Hopefully you can recoup some money on this.
apple
- 16 Jan 2004 16:05
- 14 of 57
It has been a steady riser since I bought last week looks like the recovery is underway.
highinterest
- 16 Jan 2004 17:02
- 15 of 57
thx dosh. been stocking them both for some time and already well up on both - touch wood. agree with you apple; seems as though the recovery might be getting under way here. just a few small shoots of spring perhaps?
good weekend all
cpeck12
- 19 Jan 2004 09:11
- 16 of 57
Highinterest. It really depends on your risk appetite. Its share price seems to have stablised and hence drop in volatility. The market is well informed and the current price correction is there for a good reason. Good luck!!
cpeck12
- 30 Jan 2004 12:38
- 17 of 57
Alert for bargain hunters, again!!! This price will not stay long 156.00.
cpeck12
- 30 Jan 2004 12:40
- 18 of 57
157.75 now
azhar
- 30 Jan 2004 14:14
- 19 of 57
I was in at 1.56
cpeck12
- 02 Feb 2004 10:45
- 20 of 57
Price now 159.25.
cpeck12
- 02 Feb 2004 12:14
- 21 of 57
160 now
cpeck12
- 02 Feb 2004 12:34
- 22 of 57
160.75 now
cpeck12
- 02 Feb 2004 12:42
- 23 of 57
162 now
azhar
- 10 Feb 2004 08:48
- 24 of 57
Dropping like mad, surely it worth more than 1.35 p/s. Have missed anything news etc..