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Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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Updated 2/6 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 2/9
UP Above 10,600
DN Below 10,540

Upside Break
Dow breaks range to upside, holds at highs.

From prior commentary, "...The Dow is clearly winding up for the "pitch". The fact that the index has traded sideways for over a week hints at the strong possibility of a solid break from the range..."
The Dow got an upside break through the top of the range today, which sparked a solid push higher for the session, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts, making for some very nice intraday gains. The day's rally capped a 97 point gain for the Dow.

Looking at the 60 Minute Chart, shows that the Dow is moving higher toward recent highs at around 10,700. An upside break through 10,600 will likely cause such a move Monday. However, if the index does not break and hold above 10,700, look for the Dow to remain within the boundaries of the wide trading range that has formed at the highs of the 60 Minute Chart from 10,450 to 10,700.

A break below 10,540 will likely push the Dow back toward the bottom of the range at around 10,450 Monday. A break through 10,450 will indicate an even further decline.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow is holding above short term support at 10,547, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Watch for strength above this level Monday morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Long today at 10,550, but stopped out of the trade at the entry due to the Breakeven Rule. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will watch 10,600 up, and 10,540 down Monday with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each got rolling early in the session, which each ending the day at the session highs. Look for a continuation pattern to form to indicate further upside movement. *

Summary

The Dow opened the session quietly this morning, but eventually got the upside break from the consolidation, sparking a solid push higher for the day. Look for the index to hold at the highs before another move is seen. An upside push through 10,600 will indicate continued strength, while a break below 10,540 could make for another move lower.

Broadly agree with TP and Croc. Looking at it slightly differently.

I think that if the market has turned from this short Bear downtrend
back to the Bull uptrend, then Wednesday marked the turn. This is when
it stabilized and made a higher high and a higher low.

Rather than looking for 4405 for a break higher I'm looking more
to 4410 which was the approx Wednesday high. I agree 4390 is the level
to watch for downside. These levels, surprise surprise, happen to tie
in nicely with S1/R1 at 4389/4412.

What I'm also watching is my favourite old 60 Day EMA which I believe
has been marking the bottom of the uptrend channel since last summer.
We are currently below it, as we were in September. It also happens
to mark the 4410 level, which is another reason why I believe that this
is the level to break above, but more importantly, stay above.

To sum up, we seem to be watching the same approx levels, for slightly
different reasons. Also, none of us seem to have a firm conviction
on direction.
Time to remain light on your tootsies.;-)

Melnibone.

Broadly agree with TP and Croc. Looking at it slightly differently.

I think that if the market has turned from this short Bear downtrend
back to the Bull uptrend, then Wednesday marked the turn. This is when
it stabilized and made a higher high and a higher low.

Rather than looking for 4405 for a break higher I'm looking more
to 4410 which was the approx Wednesday high. I agree 4390 is the level
to watch for downside. These levels, surprise surprise, happen to tie
in nicely with S1/R1 at 4389/4412.

What I'm also watching is my favourite old 60 Day EMA which I believe
has been marking the bottom of the uptrend channel since last summer.
We are currently below it, as we were in September. It also happens
to mark the 4410 level, which is another reason why I believe that this
is the level to break above, but more importantly, stay above.

To sum up, we seem to be watching the same approx levels, for slightly
different reasons. Also, none of us seem to have a firm conviction
on direction.
Time to remain light on your tootsies.;-)

Melnibone.

Looks like my doppleganger is back, double posting. ;-)

Melnibone.

Evening all,

I wouldn't worry melnibone, I read the first posting, wasn't sure I understood what it all mean't and what you were saying, but by the time I went through the second posting it had sunk in!

Morning all

mornin all

Morning all,

That DAX moves fast doesn't it!

Did a bit of research over the weekend and sorted out some levels.

Range trade: 4010 to 4050.
Long Bias: above 4053
Short Bias: Below 4000.

What happens? it opens up at 4070 and shoots to 4090!

I think that I'll have to be a shade quicker than this if I want
to trade the DAX. I'm too used to that slothful Old Lady, the FTSE. :-)

Melnibone.

Morning all

Melnibone - You have D4F?

They let you deal DAX when the market is not open, which is why it looks like it shoots up (or down) on open. The reality is it already trading at that level much earlier but as most charts only record it from market open, starting where it left off at market close.

I understand it follows the futures while the market is closed.

Thanks for that little woman, yes, I do use D4F.

I'm looking to spread my wings a little and branch out away
from the UK stocks/Index.

As usual, I'm doing a lot of groundwork before dipping my toe
in the water, so any comments such as your's are most welcome.

Melnibone.

GSK is looking a little sickly on an up day.

Glad I followed the price action and scalped it now,
instead of sticking with my own thoughts and holding.

If the FTSE does a retrace, as well as dropping to 1150
support, there is a danger that GSK can do an MKS and
drop to the 1000p March lows.

Definately a stock to let the market talk to you about
rather than follow your own preconceived ideas of
valuation. (For trading of course, not LTBH investing).

Melnibone.

Playing around with PON and trading what I see. Given up working out the maths!

any thoughts on BAY today? good figures but not much impact, hovering below 300p.

Everywhere I read at the moment, comment seems to be
about the US opening higher and pushing on.

DOW is already up to around 10,600, so why not some profit
taking and a drop to test 10,500 instead?

If it does this and takes it's time, say 1640 hrs, Europe will
drop towards the close.

Melnibone.

Much thanks Croc for providing the answer to a question I had, without
me even asking!! - namely why ULVR was heading south on a generally positive day!
On a more positive note- It should be a good fortnight for the banks!

melnibone,

agree with your comments re gsk retracing to 1150p though i find it hard to believe we will see 1000p again. Results are due out thursday which may help to dictate the next moves in the shorter term. I am looking to buy medium term again on any further dip, but am likely to wait until the results are out of the way before re-entering. i still like the look of this as a long term stock but the volatility at the moment makes it a stock I find hard to hold when it makes it into profit after only a few days

If you find it hard to hold when in profit, then I
suggest that you are more inclined to be a Trader than
an LTBH sort of person. :-)
So why not carry on taking the profits like you seem to
doing? It's far more satisfying!

GSK is expected to announce that the positive effects of
it's merger are now coming to an end. So you are probably
wise, if you are looking for an LTBH position, to wait until
after the results as you say.

If the market wants to sell GSK off, and remember some people still
have profits to take from those 1000p levels, then it may use
this as an excuse.

Same as you, I like this stock, but that doesn't mean that it may
not go cheaper.

Melnibone.

SHEL is getting cheaper by the day. With the increase in dividend
it must approach 5% yield soon.

Looks like Testex wasn't far off the mark with the 330p target.

Melnibone.

Melnibone,

tx for your comments - I normally have no problems holding when in profit, I have shares I have held 4yrs+ that are in profit - it just seems to be GSK that has this effect on me. I am going to keep trading it short term whilst looking for a price I am comfortable buying at for the long term.

FTSE didn't really show that much strength today.
It's interesting to see where the highs topped out.
Right at what was the previous swing low at circa 4430.

Unless the US cracks on and finishes DOW/S@P 10700/1150,
I don't really see the FTSE pushing much past here.
It needs some positive momentum to break through here and
mount another attack on 4480/4500.

Some traders have some nice fat profits to take in the
finance stocks now. If the US pulls back below 10600,
they'll have the excuse to take them.
I'll need a lot of convincing before going long here.

Melnibone.