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Traders Thread - Friday 12th March (UKX)
Crocodile - 11 Mar 2004 21:12
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US Stock tumbled for the fourth straight session as the Spanish terrorists attacks brought home what dangerous times we live in. Shell / Sakhalin Energy said it had signed a 23-year deal with Japanese refiner Toho Gas to supply liquefied natural gas from its Sakhalin II project Enterprise Inns to Enterprise Inns said it is buying the 83.2 percent of rival Unique Pub it does not already own in a 609 million pounds which will make it Britain's biggest pub group. Telewest sales edge ahead and it says it has continued customer growth. Aventis, Sanofi makes 47bln Euro bid for the company, Novartis also considers a 'get to together' with the company. |
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Fairplace Consulting (I), Heywood Williams (F), Keller Group (F), Shore Capital (F), T Clarke (F), |
Apollo Group (Q2), 19:00 Treasury Budget Feb 12:00 AM PPI Jan 0.4% & Feb, 13:30 Business Inventories Jan - 0.4% 13:30 Current Account Q4 -$136.2B, 13:45 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar 95.4 |
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Crocodile - 12 Mar 2004 07:36 - 5 of 46
morning .. Snowy start to the day!
Crocodile - 12 Mar 2004 08:38 - 6 of 46
Still short SMWH, now Logica (after Oracle results) and Bookham. IMO smaller cap stocks & techs have a long way to fall yet.
little woman
- 12 Mar 2004 08:43
- 7 of 46
Morning all
It seems that this time everyone seem to be ready for this "bit" of snow, and things are still moving out there!
FT passed S1, and then returned - now it seems to be pull back slowly. I wonder for how long.
I've been please that the majority of my holdings have not dropped much and one or two have actually gone up!
It seems that this time everyone seem to be ready for this "bit" of snow, and things are still moving out there!
FT passed S1, and then returned - now it seems to be pull back slowly. I wonder for how long.
I've been please that the majority of my holdings have not dropped much and one or two have actually gone up!
Melnibone - 12 Mar 2004 09:04 - 8 of 46
Morning all,
FTSE did a 3 box reversal on the P@F chart when it hit 4400.
If it prints 4350 we make a double bottom.
It doesn't get Bearish until we print 4300 and even then
it could be a Bear Trap. Market knows that folk look at these
charts, and sometimes sets traps to find buyers or sellers depending
on which way it wants to go at these levels.
It's getting tricky, but the trend is still basically up.
I know it doesn't feel like it at the moment. :-)
Melnibone.
FTSE did a 3 box reversal on the P@F chart when it hit 4400.
If it prints 4350 we make a double bottom.
It doesn't get Bearish until we print 4300 and even then
it could be a Bear Trap. Market knows that folk look at these
charts, and sometimes sets traps to find buyers or sellers depending
on which way it wants to go at these levels.
It's getting tricky, but the trend is still basically up.
I know it doesn't feel like it at the moment. :-)
Melnibone.
little woman
- 12 Mar 2004 09:11
- 9 of 46
I have to admit I agree with you melnibone about the trend being up. I thought I would have been hit harder by the drop than I have - and have been surprised by the couple of shares have actually gone up over the last 2 days!
Melnibone - 12 Mar 2004 09:19 - 10 of 46
Swing chart is tying in with the P@F chart.
Last swing low was circa 4360.
I would advise caution in margining up to the short side
whilst we remain above these levels.
This could easily be just a healthy retracement with the market
having fun setting Bull and Bear traps whilst it shakes folk
out and wipes out newbie traders that are using too much
margin with poor money management and nil discipline.
Remember, if in doubt, stay out. Don't try to be hero and be
afraid of missing something. There's fresh opportunities every
day, but that's no use to you if you've blown your pot.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 12 Mar 2004 09:37 - 11 of 46
FTSE now back above 4400.
Think where the profit is. It's with the Bears.
If the US starts to recover then Bears will start to book
profits before they melt away. This would result in a Bear squeeze
that would be chased up by the Bulls who are watching for it
and could result into just as violent a move to the upside.
If the US starts to break down again then more Bulls will be
frightened into liquidating holdings.
Catalyst for either scenario may be the Michigan consumer
confidence numbers this afternoon. Until then, we are still
above the swing lows.
Melnibone
Think where the profit is. It's with the Bears.
If the US starts to recover then Bears will start to book
profits before they melt away. This would result in a Bear squeeze
that would be chased up by the Bulls who are watching for it
and could result into just as violent a move to the upside.
If the US starts to break down again then more Bulls will be
frightened into liquidating holdings.
Catalyst for either scenario may be the Michigan consumer
confidence numbers this afternoon. Until then, we are still
above the swing lows.
Melnibone
Melnibone - 12 Mar 2004 09:45 - 12 of 46
Sorry if I sound like I'm preaching to the traders who
are more experienced than me here. But I think that there
are a lot of inexperienced traders who read this thread
and it doesn't do any harm to repeat a few basics and
point out some of the pitfalls before they fall into
them.
If you want me to shut up, then just say so.
Melnibone.
are more experienced than me here. But I think that there
are a lot of inexperienced traders who read this thread
and it doesn't do any harm to repeat a few basics and
point out some of the pitfalls before they fall into
them.
If you want me to shut up, then just say so.
Melnibone.
jimleaper - 12 Mar 2004 09:55 - 13 of 46
Preach away Melnibone. I am newbie and I am hurting. But I dont think of myself as ill disciplined, just carried away. Still things are improving, do you suggest I just sit it out????
Jim
Jim
Melnibone - 12 Mar 2004 10:02 - 14 of 46
Only you can answer that, Jim.
If you haven't got a reason or a plan for taking a position,
then perhaps it would be better if you didn't take one?
If you already have positions, has the the situation or the
reasons changed that caused you to take those positions?
If not, then your reasons and positions are still valid.
Melnibone.
If you haven't got a reason or a plan for taking a position,
then perhaps it would be better if you didn't take one?
If you already have positions, has the the situation or the
reasons changed that caused you to take those positions?
If not, then your reasons and positions are still valid.
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 12 Mar 2004 10:09
- 15 of 46
mel some good points i,m sure many appreciate ur comments, i am too busy on ft100 thread in traders rooms and esp today trading hard, keep it up and hope ur ok!
Melnibone - 12 Mar 2004 10:30 - 16 of 46
Thanks for the replies guys.
Doing OK thanks TP.
Playing it the contrarian way and staying with the main trend.
Scalping blue chips when they get hammered down and then chasing
the Bears back up.
Melnibone.
Doing OK thanks TP.
Playing it the contrarian way and staying with the main trend.
Scalping blue chips when they get hammered down and then chasing
the Bears back up.
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 12 Mar 2004 10:41
- 17 of 46
been doing same as you but caught a few times, looking long later but is it dow 10k or 10300 first is all i need to know! Mised bulk of move down even though was calling it this week, :OI Trader buddies done well on ft100 thread!
seawatcher - 12 Mar 2004 10:44 - 18 of 46
seawatcher - 12 Mar 2004 10:46 - 19 of 46
Keep giving us novices your advice Melnibone.Really good stuff - just what we want to hear.
sw
sw
little woman
- 12 Mar 2004 10:47
- 20 of 46
I seem to have a lot more blues
This is my biggest surprise - I purchased BT recently to hold for no more than a few weeks, and the profit is increasing despite then last 2 days!
This is my biggest surprise - I purchased BT recently to hold for no more than a few weeks, and the profit is increasing despite then last 2 days!
Melnibone - 12 Mar 2004 11:06 - 21 of 46
little woman, BT held a conference with some analysts and
has received broker upgrades ref it's broadband strategy.
If we hadn't had the last few days I feel it would be well up.
On the flip side, a lot of TA guys are calling this down
longer term as funds sell out every time it gets towards
190/200p.
Just goes to show that nobody really knows and you should
trust your own decisions.
Melnibone.
has received broker upgrades ref it's broadband strategy.
If we hadn't had the last few days I feel it would be well up.
On the flip side, a lot of TA guys are calling this down
longer term as funds sell out every time it gets towards
190/200p.
Just goes to show that nobody really knows and you should
trust your own decisions.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 12 Mar 2004 11:10
- 22 of 46
Melnibone, I have a friend who works for BT managing the engineers that install broadband for BT. He tells me they can't cope with the workload, as they are getting so many orders. They are all working 6 day weeks and sometime 13 hour days and still can't keep up with the new orders!
Fundamentalist
- 12 Mar 2004 11:18
- 23 of 46
Mel,
Keep posting, it is useful advice whether experienced or not.
Are you still watching GSK, it all but touched 1050p earlier and your 1000p post a month or so back continues to look increasingly accurate - I'm still short term trading it (with some success) but still plan to enter for LTBH in the near future.
Keep posting, it is useful advice whether experienced or not.
Are you still watching GSK, it all but touched 1050p earlier and your 1000p post a month or so back continues to look increasingly accurate - I'm still short term trading it (with some success) but still plan to enter for LTBH in the near future.
Melnibone - 12 Mar 2004 11:19 - 24 of 46
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Eustox50 PnF now showing a sell. But if you check back along this Bull Run
then each time it did it, it was a Bear Trap.
Lot of my PnF charts are showing the same thing.
To repeat myself, be wary of going heavily short here. Do the same as TP and
wait for confirmation and take a chunk out of the middle.
Better to take a smaller profit than get caught against the trend.
Don't let Mr. Market make a monkey out of you.
Melnibone.
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