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mornin all

morning all - wet and wild here in Scotland

aint much better here in hertfordshire :-(

Morning all.

Still playing the range. Took an overnight scalp on VOD
and took the profit this morning. Haven't done one of
those for a while now, but with this low volatility
you've got to try all the weapons in your arsenal to
make anything.

Don't usually like holding longs overnight during these times of
political/terrorist unrest, you never know what you're going
to wake up to.

Watching and waiting for the next opportunity now, not going to try and
force anything that isn't there.

Melnibone.

Had enough of this, looks like it's going to fiddle about
until the US open.

Will have another look this afternoon.

Melnibone.

did you not get the nice up move this morning mel?

Tom Hougards analysis for today
rgds
zarif

Good morning,



The Dow rallied after a weak open yesterday and it looks like typical portfolio mark up without any real conviction on the tape. Once the indices make it into positive territory the buying stops and the volume dries up. This is a typical pattern going into quarter end. Institutions are clearly nervous about being in the market but have to be fully invested at all times. Stocks like EBay are seeing huge intra-day reversals in pure manipulation of the tape. It is most likely that these NASDAQ ( EBay, Cisco, Klac etc) will lead to higher prices between now and the 30th June.



All in all we got a range bound market which is trying to think of an excuse to move higher, but there are too many uncertainties for Wall Street to deal with. The Fed meeting is on the back of peoples minds as is the Iraq handover.



I will have to be biased long above 1132 in the SP500 and short below 1128. This is the same strategy as yesterday. We are so close to the big turn that you have to be double alert for fake moves. It would be ideal to have a big spike into the 1144 area again before moving lower, if at all. As you know I got major cycles hitting between now and the 4th of July. If I see a strong rally develop today I will not short it as it could lead to a 2-3 day rally. Only a move back below 1128 will get me short again. I am still short NASDAQ and remain so. The weak Globex market is probably institutions hedging against any potential downside for the next week.



So the conclusion for me is that I will stay short NASDAQ unless the Comp gets back above 2000 (although I am trading the NASDAQ 100 contract). I will favour the long side in the SP500 above 1132 and favour shorts below 1128. From this point forward a move below 1128 should be terminal. The current pattern for the quarter-end is typical so dont stand in the way if they begin to mark up the go-go names mentioned above.



Today I got two potential highs, one coming in at 17:10 and another high near 18:50.



Vodafone is breaking down and possible target prices are as low as 107.50 pence. The geometry was hit perfectly yesterday and the low of 121.75 is a perfect equal wave relationship. If the 121.75 is taken out Vodafone should be on its way to 107.50 as the first target. The low of yesterday coincided with the geometry and also with a 38% retracement. This could have been it for Vodafone and higher prices are to follow. However a move below 121 should set about more weakness.



Good luck



Tom

Was anybody using Croc's Analyser software to identify trending stocks. If yes what are you using now.
What else are people using for this task?


Thanks.

Afternoon all.

Hi TP.
As posted, I got the move higher by going long VOD late yesterday
afternoon when it had its last little wobble.

Was looking for an index short after taking the profit but everything
just seemed to be meandering, so I left it until the US open to get
direction. Very difficult to call these short moves in a tight range
like this.
You think it's going one way, but all it does is take out a few tight
stops and then reverses before a decent move can take place.

Hope you are doing better than me. I'm finding this very slim pickings.

Melnibone.

Just read the post by Zarif.

I can't follow Tom's logic. No quarrel with being short the NDX,
but if he reckons higher prices between now and the end of June,
why short yet?

Add into that the market will probably move then on the Fed meeting,
but we don't know which way, then it's not the way that I would time
my entry position.

But maybe that's why Tom's an internationaly recognised successful
trader and I'm still sat at home with a laptop. :-(

Melnibone.

I don't really rate any 'guru.' Half of them can't see the wood for the trees, the other half have their 15 mins of fame then blow their followers up when their method stops working! Each to their own I guess.

mel -follow yourself imho

agree with all the above -but only put it on as it gives adifferent perspective.

Keep posting them, Zarif.
It's always good to get another perspective, and sometimes
it can stimulate discussion and we get the opportunity to
evaluate an opposing view.

Melnibone.

sorry zarif I wasn't dissing your 'Tom' postings - I know he has reasonable strike rate vs some of the clowns out there that put themselves forward as 'experts' and I'm sure lots of investors on this bb follow your 'Tom' contributions.