Sharesmagazine
 Home   Log In   Register   Our Services   My Account   Contact   Help 
 Stockwatch   Level 2   Portfolio   Charts   Share Price   Awards   Market Scan   Videos   Broker Notes   Director Deals   Traders' Room 
 Funds   Trades   Terminal   Alerts   Heatmaps   News   Indices   Forward Diary   Forex Prices   Shares Magazine   Investors' Room 
 CFDs   Shares   SIPPs   ISAs   Forex   ETFs   Comparison Tables   Spread Betting 
You are NOT currently logged in
 
Register now or login to post to this thread.

Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 18:05 - 5 of 1009

Fundy - Already there - it's underneath the logo and pics at the top rhs. It says "Click to here read the old thread".

Fundamentalist - 13 May 2005 18:45 - 6 of 1009

thanks OG - must remember to dig my specs out lol

overgrowth - 14 May 2005 14:46 - 7 of 1009

An interesting post from wyla on advfn:

"RTD is the main tip in Fleet Street Letter, arrived this morning. 12 month price target of 45. Suggests that the co has real global pre-eminence."

45p in year....1+ in 2-3 years (my estimate), Douggie you should be topping up at these levels rather than bemoaning the price slipping lol!

Of course the institutions knew this all along, and that's why they've been happy to top up themselves at every available opportunity at the expense of the nervy retail investors pocketing their (now) small profits.

parveen1 - 14 May 2005 17:21 - 8 of 1009

well presented overgrowth

I have posted earlier that RTD will be trading in the mid 40's later this year.

The Fuel side of the business is doing really well, with record high OIL prices and record levels of new cards

The Fraud side of the business should be reaping the benefits of the Macy deal now as well as their new ventures.

overgrowth - 14 May 2005 21:03 - 9 of 1009

parveen1 - I agree.

It appears that many of the remaining retail investors with a stake in RTD decided to take profits after the AGM statement. I believe that this was deliberately "played down" to avoid the mania which was associated with the previous "materially above expectations" trading update.

This is why Nigel Whittaker gave the statement - Carl Clump wouldn't have been able to resist being bullish.

Given all the new business and favourable conditions in Oz, we can definitely expect to see another expectation busting trading statement from RTD in the autumn.

With solid support being provided by the institutions, a surge of retail investment again will send the price skywards - I believe that we're going to see that start of this again on Monday.

daves dazzlers - 15 May 2005 19:55 - 10 of 1009

Nice one OG still looking at 26 myself as an entry point dont want to get lumbered with a could be/should of been/once was/mite be/darling or dog of the future,,

How cares were its going,as long as there`s a profit in it 26 and counting

parveen1 - 15 May 2005 22:27 - 11 of 1009

if it get to 26p...i'll eat my hat daves dazzler

if the tip in the fleet street letter is correct....then forget 26p

they have put a target price of 45p by the end of this year....now thats a 50% profit even from today's price.

miss the boat at your peril MR Daves Dazzlers

Fundamentalist - 15 May 2005 23:02 - 12 of 1009

Parveen

DD is always trying to fish at the very bottom, he doesnt always get what he wants!! though you never know, he may do here if the general market conditions get any worse.

Personally still a large fan of the business model but on current fundamentals 30p is a fair price imo and until proven sustainable revenue (and hence profit) growth can be displayed, then the potential multiples (based on last yrs profit) needed to give a share price of 45p arent valid.

Still concerned that unless the CNP growth accelerates quickly, then it is going to be pretty much negated by the CP decline and potential losses from the consultancy arm and hence the forward pe multiples people are applying will have to be reduced.

Can anyone provide a forecast for next yr, split by business, that underpins a 45p share price?

All imho, dyor, etc etc

parveen1 - 15 May 2005 23:19 - 13 of 1009

Fundy

how do you come to a fair price at 30p ?

maybe you need to explain your forecasts

we all know the fuel part of the business is higly profitable


this is from last year
Fuel Card business increases operating profit by 30%
Card base grows 6%

we also know that new cards being issued are at record levels and the aussie fuel prices are at record levels.

ok maybe the CNP is not growing as fast as YOU want. (48% increase in Card Not Present transactions last year)

Their own brokers have put a target price of 36p and we know how conservative they have been in the past, last 2 years we have had 2 profit upgrades

so all in all its a very bright picture.

IMHO, I feel that a few people have offloaded their shares and are trying to ramp the share down for their own gain, ie trying to get back in at a much lower price.

Thers's been some more stakebuilding in the last week or two. Maybe someone may decide to bid for the company sooner or later

I'm LONG on these as you probably already know ,in for the 1 whenever it happens 1-2-3 years, there's no hurry.



A

Fundamentalist - 16 May 2005 00:11 - 14 of 1009

Parveen

this was my view just after the last set of results (copied from old thread). My concern is that despite the continued talk of high growth and hence a high PE being fair, the turnover growth last yr was only 5% and hence most of the profit increase was generated via cost savings/higher fuel prices and not organic growth of the business - yes transactions are growing at a fast rate but this is not translating to higher turnover and hence profits

I dont see any reason to change these forecasts as to me the AGM statement was completely neutral. The only interesting fact is the continuation of institutional buying over the last few months.

Fundamentalist - 01 Mar'05 - 12:09 - 2172 of 2369 edit

Just been trying to extrapolate these results (back of a fag packet job)forward to this time next year based on the following assumptions (best conservative guess)

fuel business grows by 10%
cnp turnover increases 10% assume 50% goes straight to bottom line
cp turnover decreases 20%
consultancy business breaks even

This arrives at the following:

Turnover 33.6m
Op Profit 8.5m
ammortisation 1.4m
exceptionals nil
interest 0.2m
PBT 6.9m
tax 2.3m
profit 4.6m

basic eps 1.58p forward pe 20ish
adj eps 2.06p forward pe 15ish


these were based on the following from the results:

Business breakdown:
Fuel card:
turnover up 10% to 14.0m
op profit up 31% to 6.8m

Antifraud:
turnover up 2% to 16.2m
op profit up 9% to 1.5m

Consulting:
turnover down 10% to 1.6m
op profit gone from break even to loss making

Edit - in response to your post re deramping to get in at a lower price if i thought it would have done any good i would have been flooding the boards lol. Any comments made on a BB arent going to move the share price. As for me - i continue to monitor as i do believe in the business model and the management, but at the moment, in the current market conditions (i am quite bearish overall) the numbers dont provide enough upside for me



daves dazzlers - 16 May 2005 07:40 - 15 of 1009

Well good morning all holders,ever hopefull of being aboard the good ship rtd.

overgrowth - 16 May 2005 09:39 - 16 of 1009

dd - your 26p is looking more distant by the minute!

parveen1 - 16 May 2005 09:44 - 17 of 1009

overgrowth

dd is being very hopeful

Lets see who wins this tug of war :)

at least all the retail investors seem to have had a mood change and buying back into RTD

amazing how sentiment changes in a space of a day

overgrowth - 16 May 2005 10:16 - 18 of 1009

parveen1 - Fundy's view sums up how most investors have felt over the past couple of months (i.e. very bearish). In that sort of environment people will be happy to pocket any profits they can get and do a runner from the markets.

There are a lot of retail investors who sold RTD who didn't really want to sell because they could see the company really going places, however with the spectre of a potential severe market downturn looming they didn't want to take any risks.

I have picked up a change in general market sentiment over the past few days, I'm not sure if this will continue into a rally, though it ties in well with my predictions for an overall sideways market during 2005.

As time goes on I can see the CNP income for RTD increasing substantially - I don't know about you but I estimate that my own CNP transactions this year so far are around 500% more than they were last year. For example I've found it's cheaper to buy plumbing spares on-line (even with delivery included) than it is to go to the local plumbers merchants (even if you pretend to be a plumber to get the discount lol!).

RTD is a solid company destined for a very bright future - I don't think it will be much longer before the shares price starts to reflect its current success and future potential.

Fred1new - 16 May 2005 10:30 - 19 of 1009

overgrowth - 16 May 2005 10:38 - 20 of 1009

Speak up Fred lol!

Fundamentalist - 16 May 2005 11:12 - 21 of 1009

OG

some good points, i dare say my CNP transactions have grown similar amounts - its very rare i buy anything these days from the high street - far less hassle doing so from the comfort of the sofa and normally cheaper.

I hope you are right with the CNP income increasing substantially, I was just surprised how little the turnover increased in the last set of results despite all the new contracts that had been signed in the previous 18 months. Part of the problem with estimating the financial impact of the growth in transactions and new contracts is the values are never disclosed - ie is it a fixed price, a certain amount per transaction or a combination and at what levels


Parveen

do you have a fundamental basis to back up 45p?

parveen1 - 16 May 2005 11:32 - 22 of 1009

i don't Fundy

Im just going along with the tipsters



parveen1 - 16 May 2005 11:37 - 23 of 1009

1.45m buys to 50k sells

Fundamentalist - 16 May 2005 11:51 - 24 of 1009

Interestingly, according to another BB the writer of the FSL tip is Tom Bulford. He is the editor of RHPS - whose last view on RTD was to sell - on that basis wouldnt be a big surprise to see a buy tip from RHPS in the near future - pure specualtion of course
Register now or login to post to this thread.