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Traders Thread - Monday 12th September (TRAD)     

Greystone - 11 Sep 2005 14:45

Greystone - 11 Sep 2005 14:48 - 5 of 11

A Brief Look At The Week Ahead
The retail sector is likely to be at the fore again this week with a number of leading players reporting numbers. Pundits will be hoping for signs of improving consumer sentiment following the BoE interest rate cut last month. Next, is among those reporting and analysts expect profits to be flat. There will be interest in how profit margins are faring and comments on the trading outlook from CEO, Simon Wolfson. In its last update the company revealed that like-for-like sales had fallen 6.3%. Associated British Foods is delivering a trading update tomorrow and investors will be interested in how Primark, which ABF recently bought from Littlewoods, is progressing. French Connection is expected to reveal a gloomy outlook when it delivers its interim results on Tuesday. In a market update in July the company forecast a slump in profits and sales due to weak consumer confidence. On Thursday, Centrica reports interim results, having pre-empted the release last Friday with news that 2005 earnings would be at the lower end of estimates because of rising gas and power prices. Investors will also be looking out for news on possible disposals and signs that the company is looking to concentrate on its core business, British Gas. The building sector should be busy again this week with Bovis and Redrow releasing their results. Conditions have been tough in the sector due to weaker UK demand, although analysts say Redrow appears better placed. Other BB favourites reporting this week include Aero Inventory, Cambridge Antibodies, Friends Provident, Caffe Nero and Premier Oil. So, another busy week ahead and, with the Test Match distractions ending, hope that volumes will finally pick up after the summer lull. May you all prosper! Greystone (Greystone is Alan English, City Editor at MoneyAM.)

Digger - 11 Sep 2005 15:10 - 6 of 11

AFX UK at a glance share guide - weekend

MARKETS
FTSE 100 5,359.30, up 18.50
FTSE 250 7,851.10, up 44.40
DJIA 10,678.56, up 82.63
Nasdaq Comp 2,175.51, up 9.48
S&P 1,241.48, up 9.81
Gold 449.55 usd (447.15 usd)
Oil - Brent Oct 62.84 usd (63.08 usd)

WEEKEND PRESS
* The non-executive directors of troubled supermarket group WM MORRISON are to meet shortly to appoint new headhunters to find a replacement for the chief executive Bob Stott - The Telegraph
* LEGAL & GENERAL has slammed proposals by Sir Gerry Robinson to install himself as RENTOKIL INITIAL chairman and pocket 75 mln stg in shares for his Raphoe Management company - The Telegraph
* One of the key animal rights protesters who campaigned against HUNTINGDON LIFE SCIENCE'S US listing has a previous conviction for ill-treating animals - The Telegraph
* EU finance ministers have slashed eurozone growth estimates as they grappled with the effects of Hurricane Katrina and surging oil prices at a meeting in Manchester - The Telegraph
* SOMERFIELD is believed to have contacted the Takeover Panel asking it to issue a 'put up or shut up' notice against the two prospective bidders for the group - The Telegraph
* MISYS has been forced to back down over a controversial 1.2 mln stg bonus plan for two executives to head off a shareholder revolt at next week's annual meeting - The Telegraph
* ALEA has effectively put itself up for sale after a controversial downgrade from ratings agency Standard & Poor's threatened to destroy its business - The Telegraph
* MCCARTHY & STONE has stepped up its use of part exchange to help pensioners escape buying chains - The Telegraph
* ASDA has been accused of being 'unreasonable' by one of its suppliers after it ended a contract for ready meals without going to mediation - The Telegraph
* One of RENTOKIL INITIAL's biggest shareholders yesterday came out against Sir Gerry Robinson's attempt to insert himself as the company's chairman - a move which could net him a 58 mln stg shares bonanza - The Independent
* BOEING may pay 500 mln usd to settle charges that it stole trade secrets about Lockheed Martin's rocket programme and also recruited a senior official when she was in charge of allocating multibillion-dollar contracts for the US airforce - The Independent
* Russia's state-controlled energy giant GAZPROM appears close to buying Roman Abramovich's oil interests as banking sources confirmed that the company was actively casting around for a multi-billion dollar acquisition loan. A deal could pay out anything up to 8 bln stg for Mr Abramovich and his associates - The Independent
* PARTYGAMING is believed to have appointed Deutsche Bank to advise it on the potential purchase of EMPIRE ONLINE, which provides marketing services to internet poker sites - The Weekend FT
* PETRONAS, the Malaysian state energy company, has bought a 4 pct shareholding in CENTRICA, the utility that owns the British Gas brand - The Times
* MISYS caved in to shareholder demands last night and withdrew plans for a controversial retention scheme for two senior executives - The Times
* CI TRADERS, the Channel Islands-based retail and property company led by Tom Scott, is heading for a row with Alchemy after failing to respond to a bid proposal from the private equity firm more than seven weeks ago - The Times
* Jack Straw has come under fire from RIO TINTO, over its decision to close the British Embassy in Madascar in order to save money - The Times
* Oil giant ROYAL DUTCH SHELL has warned operations in the Gulf of Mexico may not be back to normal until next year after the destruction wrought by Hurricane Katrina - The Daily Express
* BPB will effectively demand that predator SAINT GOBAIN raises its offer by 500 mln stg to 4.4 bln stg when it mounts its defence against the French glass maker's hostile bid next week - The Daily Mail
* Millions of people forced out of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina may not be insured for the damage to their homes - The Independent on Sunday
* A leading union will today unveil what it claims are damning internal documents from two of the UK's biggest supermarket chains that prove the existence of anti-union strategies - The Independent on Sunday
* Corporate troubleshooter David James will approach property tycoon Robert Tchenguiz to help finance a new UK car manufacturing venture - The Independent on Sunday
* BAE SYSTEMS is to carry out refits and repairs on Bradleys returning from war zones, as dispute simmers over Joint Strike Fighter
* Kelvin MacKenzie is facing a row almost as soon as he takes up the chairmanship of magazine publisher HIGHBURY HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS - The Independent on Sunday
* Work has started on the third-longest bridge in the world, following a deal put together by AMEC, the infrastructure services group - The Independent on Sunday
* Prince Alwaleed, the Saudi investor and world's fifth-richest man, is expected to bid for INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS' Carlton-Cannes in the south of France. This is likely to trigger a bidding war for the hotel, which could see its price soar to well over 100 mln stg - The Independent on Sunday
* Japan will take the first steps to resurrecting supersonic passenger flight when it launches a javelin-shaped airplane that flies at twice the speed of sound over the Australian outback as early as this week - The Business
* Great Britain's steady slide down the world prosperity league tables has left it on a par with the poorest American states and cities, according to new research by the US Statistics Bureau, an official federal agency - The Business
* Sacked workers at Heathrow caterer Gate Gourmet will increase pressure on the company this weekend as it approaches a crunch week in its planned programme of voluntary redundancies - The Business
* Britain's shadow economy is worth 141 bln stg a year, according to new estimates this weekend which suggest tax evasion is rampant in the UK - The Business
* DEUTSCHE POST is on course to table a formal 3.5 bln stg bid for EXEL late this week or early next, putting pressure on American parcels giant UPS to swiftly counter - The Business
* FRANCE TELECOM is to spend 1 bln eur on developing its Wanadoo internet network as part of a strategy to lure UK customers away from BT - The Business
* Delta Air Lines, America's third-largest airline, could this week become the next US carrier to file for bankruptcy at the same time as the American airline industry's losses for the year are estimated to top 10 bln usd after Hurricane Katrina - The Business
* CABLE & WIRELESS's internet service provider Bulldog is considering providing internet television (IPTV) through its broadband network - The Business
* ENI has been hit by a 5 bln usd cost escalation at its 13 bln barrel Kashagan oil field, the world's largest oil discovery since 1991 - The Business
* MERCK has back-pedalled on plans to settle with some victims of Vioxx just days before the start of the second trial over its controversial painkiller - The Business
* ROYAL DUTCH SHELL has taken a stake in one of the world's largest greenhouse gas reduction projects to help counteract its soaring emissions as it shifts production towards more polluting oil sands - The Business
* BPB will attempt to fight off a 3.7 bln stg hostile bid by French building materials group SAINT GOBAIN this week by emphasising its growth prospects as the central plank of its defence strategy - The Business
* More evidence of the retail slowdown in UK high streets will emerge this week when fashion chain FRENCH CONNECTION and DIY group KINGFISHER both report sharp falls in profits - The Business
* German power giant E.ON, which owns the UK's Powergen, is prepared to top any rival bid for SCOTTISH POWER, according to City sources - The Business
* The Financial Services Authority has launched an inquiry into the effects of Hurricane Katrina on insurers as fears grow that a number face financial collapse - The Observer
* The planned 700 mln stg flotation of online casino firm 888 HOLDINGS could be cancelled as potential City shareholders demand the business slashes its float price by up to a third - The Observer
* The Premier League is on a collision course with Europe's competition authorities after refusing to change the way it sells its television rights - The Observer
* NEXT and KINGFISHER are expected to publish weak interim figures this week, reinforcing the picture of gloom on the high street, where trading has been hit by the July terrorist bombings in London - The Observer
* Almost a third of UK albums that went silver, gold or platinum in 2004 came from independent labels, according to figures next week from the Association of Independent Music - The Observer
* ROYAL DUTCH SHELL's 20 bln usd Sakhalin-2 gas and oil project off the east coast of Russia faces a further setback this weekend. A leading whale expert has resigned in protest from the Independent Scientific Review Panel set up by Shell to monitor the effect the project was having on the endangered western Pacific grey whales - The Observer
* BRITISH ENERGY will this week announce that it is extending the operating life of its Dungeness B power station on the Kent coast - The Observer
* PRUDENTIAL is in advanced talks with Chinas biggest retail banks about a deal that would transform its presence - The Sunday Times
* Higher oil prices are exerting significant upward pressure on inflation, official figures are set to show this week - The Sunday Times
* Big shareholders in MFI are pushing for a radical restructuring of the troubled group - including the possible sale of the eponymous retail chain - The Sunday Times
* Video Island, the lone DVD rental firm has made its first overseas acquisition, snapping up a Scandinavian rival, Brafilm - The Sunday Times
* Tortoise-paced progress in negotiations to merge NTL and TELEWEST will hit a new obstacle this week when Labour confirms it is pushing ahead with its timetable to switch from analogue to digital television - The Sunday Times
* Peter Williams, the former chief executive of SELFRIDGES, and Jim Smart, BOOTS' financial controller are among those shortlisted to take over as Boots' finance director - The Sunday Times
* MARKS & SPENCER has suffered a further decline in its share of the childrenswear market, with the group now selling fewer children's clothes than WOOLWORTHS - The Sunday Times
* Efforts by BSKYB to retain control of live Premiership football have been knocked by the resignation of a key adviser on the media group's most important rights contract - The Sunday Times
* Two of Britain's biggest quoted pub groups, MITCHELLS & BUTLERS and PUNCH TAVERNS, are in detailed talks over a 2.5 bln stg joint bid for rival Spirit Group
* CENTRICA is considering the sale of OneTel, its telecoms arm, after receiving several approaches - The Sunday Times
* Financier Guy Hands could become Britain's ultimate White Van Man with an approach to buy NORTHGATE, the 800 mln stg van rental business - The Mail on Sunday
* Consumers are being ripped off for 186 mln stg a year each because of monopoly pricing in Europe - The Mail on Sunday
* PIZZAEXPRESS is heading for a stock market return only two years after it was taken private, serving up a swift windfall for its owners - The Mail on Sunday
* Shareholders in SCOTTISH POWER are demanding that E.ON tables an offer of more than 6 stg a share if its wants to take over the FTSE 100 company - The Mail on Sunday
* Retail giant BAUGUR will consider suing Icelandic authorities for compensation if charges against its boss are thrown out by the courts - The Mail on Sunday
* M&G, Britain's biggest retail fund manager, has emerged as the biggest outside investor in PARTYGAMING, the controversial online poker company - The Mail on Sunday
* Embattled supermarket chain MORRISONS may be crippled by strike action this week as 8,000 of its depot workers and lorry drivers vote on industrial action - the Mail on Sunday
* DSG INTERNATIONAL is expected to make a fresh approach to O2 to capture the 40 pct of mobile phone retailer The Link that it does not own - The Mail on Sunday
* BETTS the world's largest manufacturer of toothpaste tubes, has been put up for sale by private equity owner Permira in a move that could raise 100 mln stg - The Mail on Sunday
* Indian manufacturers have enjoyed a boom in orders thanks to the European Union's decision to re-impose quotas on Chinese goods, which has backfired spectacularly - The Sunday Telegraph
* The sports minister, Richard Caborn, has agreed to hold talks with campaigners trying to smash BSKYB's new monopoly over the broadcast of live cricket - The Sunday Telegraph
* Stuart Rose has staked MARKS & SPENCER's recovery, which is crucial to his own survival as chief executive, on the seductive powers of Twiggy and Erin O'Connor - The Sunday Telegraph
* Mwana Africa Holdings, a mining company led by a Congolese prince, is expected to join the Alternative Investment Market in the next few days - The Sunday Telegraph
* PIZZA EXPRESS, the restaurant chain, will float for up to 900 mln stg before January with David Ross, the co-founder of CARPHONE WAREHOUSE, as its chairman - The Sunday Telegraph
* Cinven, the private equity firm, has bid for FLEXTECH, the television business that owns the Living TV channel which is home to shows such as Britain's Next Top Model - The Sunday Telegraph
* SCOTTISH & SOUTHERN ENERGY is keen to acquire its rival SCOTTISH POWER, but will wait for E.ON, the German energy giant, to make an offer before making a move - The Sunday Telegraph
* B&Q is considering closing more than 20 stores as it seeks to improve efficiency in the face of the harshest environment that the DIY sector has experienced for decades - The Sunday Telegraph
* CARPHONE WAREHOUSE would be keen to buy The Link, the struggling rival owned by DIXONS, if it comes up for sale at the right price - The Sunday Telegraph
* Britain's top-rated fund managers are becoming increasingly concerned that the UK market is overvalued following strong gains in equities this year - The Sunday Telegraph
* J SAINSBURY is to call John Adshead, a former member of its board, to give evidence at an employment tribunal where he faces claims of bullying - The Sunday Telegraph
* The British Retail Consortium is taking legal advice over whether Mastercard broke competition laws when it changed the way it sets transaction fees during an Office of Fair Trading investigation - The Sunday Telegraph
* DEUTSCHE POST could launch a formal 3.6 bln bid for logistics group EXEL as early as this week to head off a counter bid from American postal giant UPS - The Sunday Express
* One million members of collapsed insurer EQUITABLE LIFE could have their chances of compensation improved this week when a petition slamming the Government and regulation is heard by the European Parliament - The Sunday Express
* NEXT is set to rock the retail sector when it announces disappointing trading this week, according to industry sources - The Sunday Express
* RENTOKIL has appointed its pension fund boss, the man who could determine whether corporate trouble shooter Sir Gerry Robinson wins control of the company - The Sunday Express
* Fashion chain Republic is close to entering into negotiations which could lead to the 100 mln stg sale of the business - The Sunday Express
* Bidders vying to acquire FLEXTECH will be shortlisted as early as this week - The Sunday Express
* PUNCH TAVERNS is preparing to bid up to 2 bln stg next month for the bulk of Spirit Group's 2,030 pubs - The Sunday Express
* Asian telecoms giant HUTCHISON WHAMPOA has appointed five banks to run the 1 bln stg flotation of mobile operator 3 in Italy and has told them they could be recruited again for 3's UK listing - The Sunday Express

SATURDAY PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on Hurricane Insurance (The more dramatic the headlines, the more sanguine the markets seem to get. The latest estimates for insurance losses jumped from 20-35 bln usd to 40-60 bln usd according to Risk Management Solutions, yet insurance stocks barely quivered; OIL (Ironically, the official response to a situation of relatively ample US crude but exceptionally tight gasoline supplies has been to release far more crude than gasoline from strategic stockpiles), OIL (The depressing effect on the release of stockpiles on crude may prove shortlived), BANK OF ITALY (Governor Antonio Fazio is not the only source of controversy at the Bank of Italy. For historical reasons, 85 pct of the central bank is owned by 63 of Italys commercial banks - the very institutions it is supposed to supervise. A forthcoming law requires the banks to sell their stakes back to the state), INTERNATIONAL AID (Gordon Browns reputation for humanitarianism is almost as big as that for economic jiggery-pokery. His latest project, the International Finance Facility for Immunisation, marries the two) -- MARKET REPORT; BOC (continued talk of LINDE merger), VIANET (talk it could be close to a deal with Coca Cola) -- WEEKEND SHARE WATCH: ROXBORO (sales of their new LED technology will provide upside. The other option is that a larger operator might decide to buy them to access the technology), INVENTIVE LEISURE (The strong likelihood is that a cash deal will be struck and judging by the swift conclusion and price achieved in the Urbium takeover, shareholders may even do better), IDEAL SHOPPING DIRECT (still well worth looking at)

The Daily Telegraph
THE MARKET: CENTRICA (group's communications arm rumoured to be looking at UK telecoms group EASYNET GROUP), LLOYDS TSB (rumour that the bank had met Citigroup for dinner and indicated that markets were tough), TESCO (talk that it is looking at buying US grocery chain ALBERTSONS), COUNTRYWIDE (talk of hedge fund buying) - QUESTOR COLUMN: Hurricane Katrina's impact on AGGREKO and building materials stocks; (HANSON and WOLSELEY offer attractions, but for faster, more direct returns, AGGREKO and JOHN WOOD are worth a look), DEVRO (This isn't dirt cheap, but at 125-1/2 pence worth paying for), IDEAL SHOPPING DIRECT (taking some profits looks tempting. But keep hold of some), DAWSON INTERNATIONAL ( the shares are a risky bet on the company continuing to recover)

Express
MARKET REPORT: KENMARE RESOURCES (rumours that a tie-up with mining giant RIO TINTO was on the cards), QUESTAIR TECHNOLOGIES (concerns about oil supplies would fuel demand for alternative power sources)

Guardian
MARKET FORCES: CENTRICA (talk of Petronas bid), BOWLEVEN (talk of fundraising move), TOPPS TILES (talk of tough trading)

Mail
MARKET REPORT: REGAL PETROLEUM (slides on fears that a change in government in Ukraine could affect its ownership of licences - INVESTMENT EXTRA: ULTRASIS (A major drugs company could snap up the group for loose change. The bulls are running and the price could go further. Set a stop loss at 1.5 pence and do not chase them too far)

The Independent
MARKET REPORT: EMAP (talk of positive dinner hosted by Morgan Stanley), WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS (New Apple ipod Nano to contain one of group's chips), IDEAL SHOPPING DIRECT (talk that the group has enjoyed strong trading over the summer)

The Times
MARKET REPORT: EMAP (Upbeat dinner with Morgan Stanley), TEMPUS comments on recent bid fever (bids for EXEL and SCOTTISH POWER at around the current market prices are acceptable, while long-term investors will be better off repulsing the approaches for RENTOKIL and BPB)

SUNDAY PRESS
The Business
COLUMN SEVEN: Will online gaming turn out to be a busted flush -- INSIDE THE MARKET - MIDCAP INVESTOR: VISONIC (if it can repeat the first half success in the rest of the year then the shares will be modestly rated for a business with good growth prospects), AIM INVESTOR: ELECTRIC WORD (Buy) -- BENCHMARK: Ian Watson comments on Gerry Robinson's attempts to take over RENTOKIL (There is even a hint that Gerry Robinson might go hostile by launching a bid offering Raphoe Management's shares with maybe throw in a little bit of cash), PARTYGAMING (now we can expect a period of consolidation with the big online gaming boys - like rival EMPIRE ONLINE, SPORTINGBET, BETFAIR and 888.COM - getting together to try to beat the odds. Punters have had a good run at the table, but it's not yet time to lose their nerves), HUNTINGDON LIFE SCIENCES (To call them animal lovers is a insult to animals. The NYSE's decision to ban HUNTINGDON is indefensible and should be reversed)

The Sunday Express
FOCUS: MFI (Retail slowdown hitting furniture hard)

The Independent on Sunday
Online gaming: Will investors stay away for long

The Mail on Sunday
COMPANIES AND MARKETS: WYEVALE (A bid battle could erupt tomorrow after an extraordinary general meeting called by rebel shareholder Laxey Partners), KINGFISHER (poised to write down the value of unsold stock by tens of millions of pounds this week, threatening to push its expected annual profits below 500 mln stg), NEXT (will join the list of High Street retailers next week reporting falls in underlying sales), HUNTINGDON LIFE SCIENCES (is hoping that a wave of pressure from the British Government, pharmaceutical firms and American politicians will force the New York Stock Exchange to go ahead with the listing that was suddenly postponed last week) -- MIDAS: SPORTINGBET (Sell at 333-1/2 pence for a tidy 23 pct return)

Sunday Telegraph
CITY COMMENT: Questions if Gerry Robinson should be the boss of RENTOKIL (As a package it's risible. Any shareholder with thoughts of backing it ought to seek medical attention), PARTYGAMING (Although DKW has trousered a handsome portion of PARTYGAMING's magnificent flotation expenses of 88 mln usd, the write-off to what remains of its reputation may tip it into the red) -- EQUITY VIEW - BLUE CHIP VALUES: HAYS (Buy), ICAP (the shares have further to go); LOOK WHO'S TRADING: KINGSPAN GROUP (Finance director sells stock. With a slow down in the housing market, it is time to take some profits) -- SMALL CAP COMMENT: MFI (Sell), VIRGIN MOBILE (Investors should take profits), VIMIO (Worth a punt) - THE NUMBERS GAME: JAMES FISHER; Tony Jackson says even on a medium term perspective, this strikes me as a company worth owning), BUNZL (while the prompt appointment of a new CEO takes it off my negative list, it only shifts to a neutral)

Observer
THROG STREET: Comments on the takeover code (firms that constantly blame the authorities for preventing them from being more communicative should be treated with suspicion and contempt), E.ON, SCOTTISH POWER (Ian Russell, Scottish Power's chief executive, can pretend that the company has a viable independent future, but with Eon's tanks on his lawn, I don't think so), PARAGON (Paragon is on to something. No wonder bidders are circling), ITV (Charles Allen, ITV's chief executive, is a great cost-cutter and numbers man, but the big question is: can he inject the creativity and innovative programming to pull in the viewers Apparently not)

Sunday Times
JUDGMENT DAY: SHOULD YOU BUY SHARES IN MICROFOCUS Andy Brough, fund manager at Schroders, says avoid, and Tim Steer, fund manager at New Star, says avoid - INSIDE THE CITY: RENTOKIL (Robinson has yet to flesh out how he is going to revive RENTOKIL, but anyone who thinks he has not done his homework is mistaken), LLOYD'S OF LONDON (By tomorrow evening Lloyd's should have an initial assessment of how much its 60 or so syndicates will have to pay out after Hurricane Katrina), WYEVALE (Chairman David Williams has been securing support to defeat rebel investors at an EGM tomorrow) - DIRECTORS' DEALS: COUNTRYWIDE (Managing director, senior executive and two non executive directors have all been buying stock), VTECH HOLDINGS (chairman Allan Chi Yun Wong has acquired a further 2.7 mln shares at a cost of 3.3 mln stg, while the group's deputy chairman Albert Lei Wai Kuen has nearly doubled his holding by buying around 1.9 mln shares)

Digger - 12 Sep 2005 06:41 - 7 of 11


OUTLOOK - UK company results for 2 weeks to Sept 23

LONDON (AFX) - The following is a compilation of UK company results due out in the 2 weeks to Sept 23.

MONDAY SEPT 12
Bovis Homes Group PLC. Williams de Broe forecasts six months to June 30 pretax profit 53.5 mln stg vs 67.2; interim dividend 8.0 pence, up 25 pct.

Catlin Group Limited six months to June pretax profit 112.6-114.1 mln usd vs 112.6 mln

Enterprise PLC. Altium forecasts six months to June pretax profit 12.4 mln stg vs 10.5 mln; interim dividend 3.2 pence vs 2.9.

Forth Ports PLC. Arbuthnot Securities forecasts six months to June pretax profit 11.2 mln stg vs 12.6 mln; interim dividend 14.6 pence vs 13.3.

Hiscox PLC six months to June pretax profit 81.5 mln stg vs 50.8 mln.

Interserve PLC six months to June pretax profit 18.1 mln stg vs 18.8 mln.

Whatman PLC. Baird Equities forecasts six months to June pretax profit 8.7 mln stg vs 8.4 mln; interim dividend 1.92 pence vs 1.75.

TUESDAY SEPT 13
Antofagasta PLC six months to June net income 300.6-362 mln usd vs 221.3 mln; interim dividend 21.0 cents vs 15.0.

Cornwell Management Consultants PLC. Arbuthnot Securities forecasts pretax profit 1.0 mln stg vs 700,000 stg; maiden interim dividend 1.0 pence.

French Connection Group PLC. Baird Equities forecasts pretax profit 5.8 mln stg vs 15.4 mln; interim dividend 1.2 pence, unchanged.

Office2office PLC. Baird Equities forecasts six months to June pretax profit 5.2 mln stg vs 4.9 mln; interim dividend 3.5 pence vs nil.

Redrow Group PLC. Williams de Broe forecasts year to June pretax profit 138 mln stg vs 124 mln; total dividend 10.8 pence vs 9.0.

Spectris Group PLC. Arbuthnot Securities forecasts six months to June 2005 pretax profit 24.1 mln stg vs 14.2 mln; interim dividend 4.50 pence vs 4.25.

Wood Group PLC. Williams de Broe forecasts six months to June net income 36.0 mln usd vs 36.6 mln; interim dividend 1.3 cents payout, up 8 pct (4.6 pct in sterling terms)

WEDNESDAY SEPT 14
Invu Inc. Arbuthnot Securities forecasts six months to July 2005 breakeven vs loss 300,000.

SIG PLC. Williams de Broe forecasts six months to June pretax profit 36.5 mln stg vs 30.6 mln; interim dividend 5.0 pence, up 11 pct.

THURSDAY SEPT 15
Brandon Hire PLC. Baird Equities forecasts six months to June pretax profit 1.8 mln stg vs 2.2 mln; interim dividend 1.6 pence vs 1.5.

CODASciSys PLC. Baird Equities forecasts six months to June pretax profit 4.2 mln stg vs 3.7 mln; interim dividend 1.4 pence vs 1.3.

Huntleigh Technology PLC. Baird Equities forecasts six months to June pretax profit 13.7 mln stg vs 14.5 mln; interim dividend 3.34 pence vs 3.30.

Kingfisher PLC six months to July pretax profit under IFRS 250-265 mln stg vs 165 mln.

Next PLC six months to July pretax profit 161 mln stg vs 165 mln.

Premier Oil PLC. Williams de Broe forecast six months to June net income 30 mln usd vs 12.8 mln.

FRIDAY SEPT 16
Biocompatibles International PLC. Baird Equities forecasts six months to June pretax loss 3.0 mln stg vs loss 2.3 mln.

Isotron PLC. Baird Equities forecasts year to June pretax profit 10.3 mln stg vs 8.8 mln; total dividend 10.6 pence vs 9.6.

Digger - 12 Sep 2005 06:44 - 8 of 11

LONDON (AFX) - The following is a compilation of UK smaller company results due out in the 2 weeks to Sept 23.

MONDAY SEPT 12
Action by Bovis Homes Group PLC to increase outlets, control construction costs and promote high-margin landholdings should enhance its strong (27 pct) operating margin over the next 18 months, according to Simon Brown of Williams de Broe.
The decline in 2005's pretax profit - the analyst looks for 53.5 mln stg against 67.2 mln at the half-way mark to June - must be viewed in the context of the market and the group's stronger land bank, achieved via planning success on three major strategic land sites with significant (35 pct-plus) operating margins, Brown said.
A key element of future growth is the group's ability to expand operations geographically, without lowering current returns, by using the strategic land held in new regions.
Meanwhile, Brown's interim profit estimate would throw up EPS of 31.8 pence against 40.1, from which a 25 pct hike in the payout to 8.0 pence is envisaged.

A key feature of Enterprise PLC's H1 results will be the cost of integrating recent acquisitions, corporate investment and the inherent seasonality caused by the timing of supplier rebates - around 1 mln stg in the closing half of last year.
Nevertheless, Andrew Nussey of Altium expects solid progress in the key Utilities and Public Sector Maintenance divisions with each division showing year-on-year margin improvement and double-digit top line growth.
In addition, the analyst looks for more clarity on the potential working capital arising from a major customer looking to change terms of payment and the move to ensure risks are minimised for shareholders on rebid.
Nussey is forecasting pretax profits of 12.4 mln stg, up from 10.5 mln, for the six months to June 2005, resulting in EPS of 10.8 pence against 9.7. The payout is expected to rise to 3.2 pence from 2.9.

Lower interim profits are anticipated at Forth Ports PLC, and Alistair Gunn of Arbuthnot Securities reckons there is at least a 50/50 possibility that the company will warn it will struggle to meet consensus profit expectations for H2 and the full year - currently 53.4 mln stg pretax.
The analyst's caution relates to the property division, with the Port division enjoying a solid outlook.
Moreover, his caution does not relate to the state of underlying demand for land from developers and housebuilders or the pricing environment (both of which he believes to be unchanged). Rather, it reflects the lumpiness of profits and timing of sales.
At the half-way stage to June 2005, Gunn shoots for pretax profits of 11.2 mln stg, marginally down on the comparative period's 12.6 mln.
This reflects lower sales activity in H1 (which normally accounts for just 5 pct of annual profits) for the property division and increased costs from establishing a property master plan for about 268 acres of the Edinburgh waterfront (now zoned for commercial use) and the marketing of all the group's waterfront locations under the Edinburgh Forthside brand.
Good underlying progress is anticipated from the Ports division, one again led by Tilbury. Gunn expects EBITA to be up by 9.9 pct, with Multilink Terminals (the group's first venture outside the UK) chipping in for the first time. Improved trading is seen at TCS within JV's and associates.
Meantime, a 14.6 pence dividend, up from 13.3, would be covered by EPS of 17.1 pence against 18.8.

Whatman PLC warned in July that first-half sales and profits will be lower than it anticipated.
However, the laboratory equipment supplier said improvement in the second half and higher than expected savings from last year's acquisition of Germany's Schleicher & Schuell, on lower than anticipated costs, meant full year targets would be met.
The company blamed the sales shortfall in the first half on "lack of leadership" following the November departure of chief executive Howard Kelly, who stepped down after 17 months in job, and two regional sales managers.
Elizabeth Klein of Baird Equities has pencilled in pretax profits of 8.7 mln stg for the six months to June 2005, modestly up from 8.4 mln. This would produce EPS of 4.69 pence, up from 4.54, from which a 1.92 pence payout is anticipated. The company paid 1.75 at the half-way mark last year.

TUESDAY SEPT 13
A strong first half to June 2005 is expected at Cornwell Management Consultants PLC. Arbuthnot Securities' Robert Sanders expects revenues of 10 mln stg, up 12 pct and, thanks to better margins, pretax profits of 1.0 mln stg against 700,000 stg.
A maiden interim dividend of 1.0 pence is thought likely, payable from EPS of 4.2 pence.
The main drivers of profits in the closing half will be how successful Cornwell is in converting ITTs to contracts within the public sector areas and how quickly Quantum Plus is integrated and the better margins available within the private sector impact the group.
The second half will also see some benefits from the upfront investment costs taken in the first half.

A sharp downturn in profitability is expected at French Connection Group PLC, with Paul Smiddy of Baird Equities forecasting 5.8 mln stg pretax against 15.4 mln for the six months to July 2005.
The most successful look in the high street for the last few months has been the latest iteration of the boho look. This is at the core of French Connection's heritage - cheesecloth shirts sourced from India.
However, FC missed out entirely on 2005's version of this look. Arguably, the senior management had become too obsessed with FCUK t-shirts and denim, Smiddy suggested.
Relatively premium price positioning has looked increasingly out of kilter in a deflationary High Street. The effects of management insularity combined with a poor clothing environment produced the horrors of the 1 July trading statement - H1 UK/Europe retail LFL was then forecast to be down 11 pct.
Much rests on the Autumn/Winter ranges to restore faith, said the analyst. Wholesale orders are, however, down 10 pct for the season.
A same-again 1.2 pence interim dividend is expected.

Office2office PLC's interim results should reflect further steady growth within the business, with more smaller contract wins balancing the larger variety. They should also provide a feel for progress on local authority contracts, where there are growing opportunities, according to Nick Spoliar of Baird Equities.
A key trend is the government purchasing efficiency process (Gershon), which is largely helpful for the company, said the analyst.
Spoliar predicts that pretax profits for the six months ended June 2005 will go up to 5.2 mln stg from 4.9 mln, producing EPS of 10.2 pence against 9.4. A 3.5 pence (nil) payout is anticipated.

UK housing demand was weak in the six months to June 2005 against the comparable period in 2004. Redrow PLC is showing as good a profit trend as any, however, and has a growing regional spread, Simon Brown of Williams de Broe pointed out.
In performance terms, the group has a very impressive 28 pct return on capital employed, and assured in June that sales, at 4,372 units with an average price of 172,000 stg, would not disappoint the market, despite a marginally lower operating margin.
Balance sheet and cash flow strengths allow the group flexibility in land buying and investment in working capital. A land-buying phase may limit the decline in gearing to 32 pct for end June 2005, said the analyst. Next year, gearing could well fall to below 30 pct, given the increased land bank and success in planning on some larger sites, he added.
Meanwhile, Brown sets his sights on year to June 2005 pretax profits of 138 mln stg - the market range is from 132 mln to 142 mln - against 124 mln previously. His prediction would lift EPS to 60.4 pence from 54.8, from which a 10.8 pence dividend total, up from 9.0, is anticipated.

Interim earnings from precision instrumentation and controls company Spectris PLC should show very strong progress over the disappointing first half in each of the last two years.
In 2003, the SARS epidemic delayed the order flow in the Far East, while the Bruel & Kjaer companies were let down by a supplier in Q2 2004.
Since these two issues were clawed back in the second halves of 2003 and 2004, the outlook for the year will give a more helpful indication of underlying progress.
Arbuthnot Securities analyst Michael Blogg expects high single-digit sales growth in 2005, amplified by operational and financial gearing to give almost 12 pct EPS growth for the year.
For the six months ended June 2005, Blogg looks for pretax profits of 24.1 mln stg, up from 14.2 mln, for EPS of 14.5 pence against 8.9. The interim payout is expected to rise to 4.50 pence from 4.25.

John Wood Group PLC's July trading update reported that Engineering and Production Facilities had had a good half at the operating level. All three units of the Well Support business also saw good growth in H1 05.
As Wood had previously indicated, Gas Turbine Services is likely to continue to struggle in 2005. The US power market, which has been the main cause of the division's problems, was described as "difficult but stable" in the update.
Richard Griffith of Williams de Broe recently stepped up his 2005 and 2006 estimates by 8 pct and 6 pct respectively.
For the half-year to June, meanwhile, the analyst predicts net income of 36.0 mln usd against 36.6 mln. On the dividend front, he look for a 1.3 cents payout, up 8 pct, or 4.6 pct in sterling terms.

WEDNESDAY SEPT 14
Close watchers of Invu Inc, the document management software group, are expecting to see more of the stellar top line growth that the company has delivered since float, with Arbuthnot's year to Jan 2006 pretax forecast of 1.6 mln stg more than 50 pct ahead of the same period last year.
Invu has also continued to invest heavily in both the technology and the sales process which is only likely to impact in terms of return in the second half. Therefore, Arbuthnot's Robert Sanders expects breakeven at the halfway mark to end-July 2005, compared with a 300,000 stg pretax loss.
Despite having yet another demanding sales forecast for the second half, Sanders feels certain that the steep ramp-up in profitability will come through. Not only will this be a function of the operational gearing to the traditional seasonal bias of software companies to the second half, and especially the fourth quarter, but also the improved reseller channel and launch of the .NET platform.

Good progress is anticipated at SIG PLC. The insulation, roofing and commercial interiors products supplier said in June that continued like for like sales growth together with the added impact of recent acquisitions will enable the group to report a particularly strong trading performance, ahead of expectations, for the first half of 2005.
Activity levels remain solid in the UK, with repairs, maintenance and improvement (RMI) activity taking up any slack in the new-build market, said Simon Brown of Williams de Broe.
SIG offset cost pressures in most geographic centres in H1 05 through better pricing - which has been widely accepted - and there are signs of demand recovery in France, the US (small) and Poland.
Despite RMI recovery, concerns about weak German demand in H1 05 seem well founded, cautioned Brown. However, with a greater exposure to industrial, rather than construction, activity - on a 70/30 split - the ability to advance sales volumes may offset pricing concerns.
The analyst predicts pretax profits of 36.5 mln stg for the six months to end-June 2005 - bottom of a market range that extends to 41.0 mln, but up from the previous period's 30.6 mln.
Brown's forecast would lift EPS to 21.0 pence from 17.7, from which an 11 pct hike in the payout to 5.0 pence is anticipated.

THURSDAY SEPT 15
Brandon Hire PLC's interims results will reflect steady trading through most of the period, coupled with an improved order book towards the end of the half.
The numbers will not have matched the buoyant first half of 2004, however, when revenue growth was 15 pct, as against low single-digit growth for most of H1 05.
Concerns on Brandon have focused on the exposure of the tool hire sector to construction and in particular housing, said Nick Spoliar of Baird Equities.
However, the analyst pointed out that Brandon's markets are extremely disparate, ranging from contractors to councils and local tradesmen engaged in maintenance and refurbishment, markets which remain relatively robust.
Spoliar, meanwhile, targets pretax profits of 1.8 mln stg, down from 2.2 mln, for the six months ended June 2005. He expects the dividend to nudge up to 1.6 pence from 1.5, payable from EPS of 3.8 pence against 5.0.

Steady progress is anticipated at CODASciSys PLC in the half-year. Revenues at CODA should benefit from a first-time contribution from the acquired French business, which should complement modest organic growth.
Ian Spence of Baird Equities is expecting revenues from SciSys to be flat year-on-year, but he pointed out that this represents a respectable sequential increase. Revenues from other areas of the business (namely the remainder of the commercial business and Business Collaborator) should be up slightly year-on-year.
Margins at both SciSys and CODA are expected to have been flat during the period.
Pretax profits of 4.2 mln stg against 3.7 mln are forecast by Spence for the half-year ended June 2005, leading to EPS of 12.7 pence against 11.6. A 1.4 pence dividend, up from 1.3, is expected.

A mixed AGM statement from Huntleigh Technology PLC prompted Elizabeth Klein of Baird Equities to adopt a more conservative outlook for H2 with revised estimates cautious on possible tenders, which still have yet to come through.
The AGM highlighted positive performance in the US, South Africa, Australia and some parts of Europe. In fact, the US now has 20 of its 25 depots either breaking even or profitable, and this is slightly ahead of Klein's expectations.
UK NHS sales, however, were poor, without any of the usual tenders in Q1. This was due to the Trusts' lack of funds and therefore their focus on spending their remaining monies on non-discretionary purchases such as orthopaedic items and equipment for operations, and not on capital equipment.
For the six months ended June 2005, Klein looks for pretax profits of 13.7 mln stg, marginally down from 14.5 mln. She expects the payout to nudge up to 3.34 pence from 3.30, payable from EPS of 10.7 pence against 11.3.

Premier Oil PLC watchers will be focusing on the H2 05 exploration programme instead of the interim results. In a recent drilling update, the company said it is scheduled to drill ten wells before the year end.
On the profits front, Williams de Broe's Richard Griffith predicts net income of 30 mln usd for the six months ended June 2005, up from 12.8 mln. This would throw up EPS of 19.0 pence against 8.3.

FRIDAY SEPT 16
Biocompatibles International PLC's recent AGM statement indicated that the full-year sales guidance remained unchanged, suggesting H1 revenues of 1.5 mln stg-2 mln.
Elizabeth Klein of Baird Equities anticipates interim turnover at the lower end of this range, driven by only modest growth in Bead Block sales.
Revenues from PC Licensing, Dexamet stent royalties and feasibility studies are expected to demonstrate minimal growth year-on-year.
The bulk of Biocompatibles' FY 05 costs are associated with the PRECISION clinical trials and will be incurred during H1. Pre-marketing evaluation of the DC Bead will also increase operating expenses over this period, said the analyst. As such, full-year losses will be weighted towards H1.
Klein anticipates a positive update on the PRECISION trials. She also expects an update on CellMed, which she believes will be the next product taken into clinical development during 2006. This product appears to have the greatest commercial potential, given its application as a second-generation drug-eluting platform, the analyst said.
Klein forecasts pretax losses of 3.0 mln stg for the six months ended June 2005, up from a 2.3 mln deficit, for LPS of 7.5 pence against 6.1.

Isotron PLC, whose principal business is contract sterilisation of
medical products, confirmed in July it expects year to June 2005 results to be within the current range of market expectations (10 mln stg to 10.5 mln pretax).
Baird Equities analyst Ian Jermin predicts pretax profits of 10.3 mln stg, up from 8.8 mln, for EPS of 35.2 pence against 30.0. He looks for a 10.6 pence dividend total, up from 9.6.

Digger - 12 Sep 2005 07:08 - 9 of 11

LONDON (AFX) - Leading shares are expected to start the week firmer, building on a solid performance on Wall Street on Friday, and as oil prices paused for breath overnight, dealers said.
According to spread bettors CMC, the FTSE 100 will open 10 points higher at around 5369, having finished on Friday at 5,359.3.

MARKETS
Tokyo: Nikkei midday 12,826.60
Hang Seng midday 15,220.38 up 54.61

TODAY'S PRESS
* The Financial Services Authority is scrutinising the presentation of results under international accounting standards as analysts warn that some companies risk sowing confusion in financial markets - The FT
* John Thornton, former co-president of Goldman Sachs, is among the candidates being considered to chair American International Group, the world's largest insurance company - The FT
* CENTRICA is said to be considering selling its telecommunications arm OneTelafter receiving interest from several potential buyers - The Express
* A three-year Serious Fraud Office investigation could lead to charges against six British drug companies for allegedly defrauding the NHS by rigging the prices of commonly used drugs - The Times
* Business and industry groups are calling for urgent government action to help them to cope with a potentially crippling rise in energy costs. - The Times
* The FA Premier League is preparing to repel a new complaint that the European Commission is expected to make about the way it sells its television rights - The Times
* Fears that Hurricane Katrina could trigger the collapse of a number of insurance companies have prompted the FSA to investigate the disaster's effect on UK-registered firms - The Telegraph
* Insiders at WM MORRISON believe that chairman Sir Ken Morrison and chief executive Bob Stott are unlikely to survive a damaging strike at the supermarket group - The Telegraph
* Pub group MITCHELLS & BUTLERS, owner of the Harvester and All Bar One chains, has joined up with PUNCH TAVERNS to bid for privately owned rival Spirit Group - The Telegraph
* Broadcasters who win the rights to televise live Premier League football could be forced to sell some games to rivals under proposals drawn up by media regulator Ofcom - The Guardian
* RANK is facing demands from large investors to make sweeping changes to its business after a year of protracted disposal talks and widespread under-performance across the leisure conglomerate - The Guardian

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on Japanese election (A week is a long time in politics, but perhaps four years is not enough), Risk appetite (Study the distribution of real gross domestic product growth of the world's 20 richest economies over the last 50 years and the world appears a fairly benign place), TELECOM ITALIA (valuation is in line with the sector on most cash flow metrics. It has a superior asset base. Its complex capital structure prevents its participation in the sector's looming acquisition binge. Maybe it's time for the shares to go back to work)
Independent
Small Talk: QXL RICARDO (eBay's success makes QXL look overvalued), PERSONAL SCREENING (Word has it Personal Screening will soon be making its way from the lightly regulated Ofex market to AIM), UNITED CLEARING (Although the group's shares have soared by 70 pct since its float last year, there seems to be plenty more upside in the stock), ADAMIND (All looks to be in place to make the group a big winner from the fast evolving multimedia messaging sector)
Times
SMALLER STOCK TO WATCH: ILX GROUP (expected to announce today that it has signed a "significant contract" with Rolls Royce for an undisclosed sum)

Greystone - 12 Sep 2005 17:20 - 11 of 11

End of day market wrap
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