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My top AIM pick for 2006. (TOL)     

hawick - 13 Dec 2005 08:53

If my first pick for share of 2006 Ofex:STH is just too much for your Xmas turkey threatened cells to cope with, AIM listed Toluna (TOL) gets the second vote. I think because of an already apparently high valuation it is the riskiest pick so far I have made, and if the market slumps in 2006 this is not a defensive play, but there's nothing i can do about a market slump and this is a real growth story regardless, and overall I believe it is an absolute beauty.

Toluna oozes class. Little known yet by the private investor. Only around 10% of the shares are in free float and this company floated earlier this year.

Toluna provide online services to the market research industry and this is a tiny quoted sector (rivals include YOU and RNOW).

Companies these days are desperate to find out what makes the customer tick, so you can imagine Toluna's services are hugely in demand. Toluna is a little further down the line with clients than rivals, clients including Mercedes-Benz, AOL, Peugeot, Dior, IKEA, Aventis and France Telecom. Unlike their competitors, they are not in the market research area of politics.

Although numbers last week show a small profit, it is that explosive growth I have been focussing on. Market cap is about 25 million including revenues up by some 300% (not to be confused by looking at comparisons with the holding company which initially confused me) and they said trading is ahead of forecasts. A forward p/e of over 20 looks severe, however that was before the update, and growth should further outstrip forecasts (Yougov, which gave a bullish trading update today and rose another 10%, is trading on over 45 times 2006 earnings!).

However, as you all know, markets are not all about numbers, Toluna is in a potentially sexy sector with good technology and the share price is just starting to show some momentum. There may be opportunities to trade the shares during the year, despite (or perhaps even fuelled by) a bit of illiquidity.

Margins are around an impressive 25% (twice that of RNOW) and the company has a healthy cash balance of over 4.5 million pounds. Invesco are among the fundies involved.

If you want a bagger in 2006, this is a share with a great chance of delivering from the current 102.5p. IMHO, Buy.


Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=TOL&Si

hawick - 06 Nov 2006 14:03 - 5 of 14

Thanks Confidant.
Actually I got in at 95p -:) but sold too soon around 150p -:( , but am back in now!

Confidant - 06 Nov 2006 14:12 - 6 of 14

hawick

I read numerous threads around last year end to look for potential winners --- liked your STH better than the TOL so took that one instead. Patience is a virtue..........

cynic - 06 Nov 2006 14:15 - 7 of 14

personally would not touch OFEX shares ... far far far too difficult to trade

hawick - 06 Nov 2006 14:27 - 8 of 14

Patience and Ofex (now Plus-Quoted of course) do go hand in hand Confidant; however my three years of patience in GSC have been rewarded with a rise from 47p to 285p so far (Investor Presentation day tomorrow I believe in London); -;) Had no problems trading it so far.
and STH with the new management including Barry Hocken, and Roy Stanley (of AIM listed Tanfield) having taken a 20% stake, I'll be amazed if there isn't something 'corporate' in the offing - Nomad status is supposedly imminent too i believe after they had to put it off when Tony Drury left. Good to hear you're in Confidant! Got to start thinkin' of a pick for 2007!! -:)

TOL looking good!

steveo - 06 Nov 2006 23:04 - 9 of 14

well done hawick, like to know what your pick is at the time.

hawick - 07 Nov 2006 11:11 - 10 of 14

Cheers Steveo! Will take some finding to match TOL!

Tipped in Telegraph and Independent this morning (better late than never boys!) touched 205p but now tree shaken firmly. Newspaper tips and the kiss of death........

hawick - 08 Nov 2006 13:00 - 11 of 14

Bullish update from RNOW, one of only two other 'pure' players in this micro-sector (YOU the other). All three are up stellarly in 2006.
TOL flying today, and still more to come imho.

hawick - 10 Nov 2006 12:23 - 12 of 14

Chart breakout continuing.

hawick - 04 Jan 2007 14:10 - 13 of 14

And still TOL going strong. It doubled for 2006. -:)

My pick for 2007 is also very little known steveo; it is a pharma company also AIM listed called Beximco. BXP.

They produce both new and out of patent drugs in Bangladesh for the likes of Glaxo and Novartis as well as their home markets. Historic p/e is around 12, profit of 5 million last time market cap 60 million. Only trades here through GDRs.

Spent four years building a 'much-needed' (their words) new production facility, now fully operational in the last few weeks despite which the shares have barely twitched, which should enable them to double output this year - and that is the 'opportunity'.

Included in their substantial range is a Tamiflu product, and an inhaler recently introduced for the home market with significant advantages over existing offerings and huge sales potential.

With 30 years of trading history they also benefit from bangladesh's LDC (Least Developed Countries) status.

On the downside, there are elections in the country on 21st January, and there was some unrest when they were called as a caretaker government appeared to be biased towards the outgoing administration (they always have a caretaker government during an election period) but things appear to have settled down. They are also currency sensitive to some degree but the benefits appear to far outweigh the risks and the shares are hopefully forming a solid base.

In a year where I think the bull may tire, this is one company that should do well and a recent trading statement was very decent. Won't be an overnight gusher but a great tuckaway imho. there's also a dividend by the way, something I always find reassuring if investing in an overseas company.

From the current 60-63p I hope these will be north of 100p by year end.



goldfinger - 04 Jan 2007 23:23 - 14 of 14

I go along with Hawick and believe theres plenty to come in this one.

It might be unheard of, but thats just the type you should be looking for.
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