This is huge get in before the heard arrives to work this morning, the new VOG

Judging by the narrow spread the MM's have all they want at the moment, so will it bounce back up off 130p?

FEP Bid: 131p Offer: 132p Change: -9

Obviously I cannot predict the SP movement, but IMO the rise in market cap of 20 million is not a sufficient exploration premium given the amount of gas said to be at stake.

Positive newsflow ought to drive the SP significantly higher if nothing else does.

Okay - judging by what I see here, those that hold don't agree with what I have said, and so I genuinely wish you well.

I will not repeat a word that's previously published.

soul you know me enough to realise I am not trying to do a downer on a good thing. not that anyone has suggested that either.

So because I can see that we can possibly help each other at some point in the future, I am going to leave you all to it.

I will watch with interest in the short term.

I see this stock is destined to become as polemical as SEO :o)

Looks like the market heard you so far, SWW:

FEP Bid: 126p Offer: 130p Change: -12.5

Certainly we can agree to disagree - time will tell. I've been wrong before.

Can't wait for the appraisal drilling though!

soul traders: I believe they will need some funding before drilling. Day rates for rigs are at a premium right now.

was off line all this afternoon en route to NL ..... however i note that TM has singularly failed to reproduce his much vaunted FT article with target of 500p and clearly the market is having second thoughts too

SMALL CAPS: GAS FIND DOUBLES PRICE OF FORUM ENERGY SHARES

By Peter Garnhamand Robert Orr

Published: September 27 2006 03:00 | Last updated: September 27 2006 03:00

*Shares in Forum Energy more than doubled to 140p after the explorer revealed that testing at its Sampaguita gas discovery in the Philippines indicated a "world class" gas asset of up to 20,000 billion cubic feet. Analysts at Noble & Company said that while many uncertainties remained, thefind could be worth about500p a share to Forum. But shares in Sterling Energy fell1.4 per cent to 18p despite the fact that it owns a 14 per cent stake in Forum.

What you up to in NL, I am going to Amsterdam this weekend. Getting the train, only takes 6 hour, and much nicer than flighing...

This provide a better insight of news yesterday, I like the fact its only 250km away from large shell gas infracture.

FEC Holds 35% of a World Class Gas Discovery With a Proven Minimum of 3.4 TCF (Trillion Cubic Feet) and Potential of 20 TCF of Gas
Tuesday September 26, 1:35 pm ET


CALGARY, Alberta, Sept. 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The following was released on behalf of the Board of FEC Resources Inc, by Larry W. Youell, President and CEO:
FEC Resources Inc (OTC Bulletin Board: FECOF; FRANKFURT and MUNICH: FE8) ("FEC" or "the company") reports that Forum Energy Plc ("Forum"), the UK energy group of which FEC Resources holds a 35% equity interest, has today issued the following announcement:

"3D Seismic Programme Results at Sampaguita Gas Discovery


Indicates World Class Gas Asset
Forum Energy (AIM: FEP), the AIM listed oil, gas, and coal exploration and production company focused on the Philippines, is pleased to announce that the interpretation of the 3D seismic programme at the Sampaguita gas discovery indicates a world class gas accumulation with potential reserves of up to 20 TCF ("Trillion Cubic Feet") Forum has 100% of the equity in the licence in which the Sampaguita offshore gas discovery is situated. The block is located off the North West coast of Palawan Island in the Philippines.

Results from the 3D seismic programme and its interpretation performed by independent consultants, Count Geophysics Limited, confirmed a minimum of 3.4 TCF proven gas in place from sands tested in the 3 wells drilled to-date and the extension of the structure to a possible closure of 290 sq. km giving an upside reserves in these sands alone of 10 TCF.

Additional untested sands, which are known to contain gas, could double this figure. The block also contains 8 additional leads which require further work that has the potential to add a further 20 TCF in aggregate.

Forum is in the process of converting the licence to a service contract and plans to drill an appraisal well as soon as possible."

Sampaguita lies 250 kilometres southwest of the world-class Malampaya gas field, where operator Shell has installed extensive production facilities and pipeline infrastructure that supplies gas to three Philippine power plants.

"We are delighted with the news from FEP confirming an asset of enormous potential and through our significant 35% shareholding, it is anticipated FEC shareholders should benefit greatly. It is understood an appraisal is to be sought at the earliest opportunity to bring the gas field to commerciality, which given the potential reserve size and proximity to the Asian markets is an ideal candidate for an LNG facility," commented Larry W. Youell, President & CEO.

Very tricky to predict the bounce now. Any thoughts?

got back from work at 5.30 to find out that i have bought the ten thousand fep that i left on the books this morning. I have paid 1.32 per share.They have closed a lot lower at 1.22. Any way I will sit on these for a while and see how they do. Good luck to all holding these.

Harrycat, agree but there is seem a support formation at around 120p do you think?
Personally I think it may have a little rise from now on leading up to process of converting the license.

Tonker ... we have an office in R'dam ..... often i go via A'dam and also spend a couple of days there, but could not work the trimetable for that this time

will it bounce at 120p?

seemingly not! .... or at least not immediately ..... something feels wrong, but i can't put my finger on it ...... if not in, then suggest stay out until the fog clears a little .... if already in, don't know what i would advise except perhaps lighten the load a bit

cynic - as it seems to be occring as predicted, I would say the market has taken punters for a ride, those who cashed in have done well, those who have not may not enjoy this ride.

Sampaguita was known about before this, so were the reserves, Forum have doubled up on Sterlings work, who gave it away for 14% of Forum shares(Why?), it was described as stranded by them, it still is and it's still in the ground.

Any rise was premature imo.

ok The Master has made us all a bit richer -- thx

But what about the basics -- 3 things I think

1. At minimum 3.4TCF and FEP farm out 75% this thing is close to 3 on a NPV basis -- assumes 6 years to start of production and ready to flow gas at $400m per TCF (this is low)--- that would be at 25% to FEP, so $400m*3.4*.25= $340m or 170m in 6 years time . Current market cap 33m Using discount rate of 12% NPV is c80m

2. Look at the statement from CEO of sterling energy at Sept interims

"with now a sizeable and growing cash position and an active and largely carried exploration portfolio"

"we continue to seek new drilling opportunities and production acquisitions that can bring significant upside"

Now if Sterling Energy know about FEP which they should as a 15% shareholder. Plus small co owns 35% of FEP. Would that small co want money in hand now so they could have some control ? therefore Sterling could take out at a discount to current NPV -- 2 take out minimum --- and look pretty if the upside TCF targets get anywhere near possibilities


3. All this has no upside to potential 20+TCF or that farmout could be 50%. Downside it's worthless so 0p. Uspide downside risk 10:1 plus in my favour, 3:1 at low end


Reloaded

Confident?

No worries ;-)

LOL.

Okay, I'll go along with that, lets see.

Sterling giving this up for 14% of Forum is the issue here.

Why would they do that?

It's only about a year ago.

Either, in their too hard basket or they could not afford more poaper to fund it I suppose.