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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Fundamentalist - 25 May 2005 11:53 - 50 of 1009

Personal thoughts for what its worth are that from a chart perspective things dont look great and if it gets to 26p, this will be a significant support area that needs to hold. On last yrs results on basic EPS of 1.06p this is still currently on a PE of 25 and on broker consensus of basic EPS it is still on a forward PE of over 20. I think the broker forecasts for this yr are conservative though i also think most holders expectations are optimistic. As i have said before i see fair value as approx 30p based on my prediction of this yr results, with the key components being turning the growth in online transactions/new contracts into revenue/profit growth and the size of decline in CP transactions/revenue/profits. If they can demonstarte the translation of increased CNP transactions into revenue/profits then the SP will rocket again.

Looking to buy back in but looking for chart support to hold or for the fundamental position to change

all imho dyor etc etc

Fred1new - 25 May 2005 15:50 - 51 of 1009

I tend to agree but just a little more optimistic about the future. By the way where is optimistic.

overgrowth - 25 May 2005 15:53 - 52 of 1009

Buyers appear to be coming back now - interesting to see that someone was happy to spend 177,000 buying a few this afternoon.

"optomistic" I last saw on the MDW board.

Fred1new - 25 May 2005 18:08 - 53 of 1009

overgrowth You will have to stop smoking that weed if you are seeing Optimistic on a BB,



*-)

overgrowth - 26 May 2005 09:55 - 54 of 1009

Looks as though Douggie'll have to give up on the weed also - he's just posted an exclamation mark on the old thread lol!

Douggie - 26 May 2005 10:13 - 55 of 1009

!....!

Oakapples142 - 27 May 2005 07:57 - 56 of 1009


Help - what are the likely affects of to-days RNS

skyhigh - 27 May 2005 09:09 - 57 of 1009

Don't know... but it doesn't sound that good does it?.. perhaps someone else can enlighten us !

Oakapples142 - 27 May 2005 09:14 - 58 of 1009


Skyhigh - that was my reaction - however, so far to-day buying and selling is about even - so perhaps most traders are in the dark

Fred1new - 27 May 2005 10:08 - 59 of 1009

Fundy Where are you when you are wanted. I think it RNS is referring to profit due to different taxation systems. Possibly due to some turnover coming under American taxation system. Don't know really. Experts please!!

Douggie - 27 May 2005 10:28 - 60 of 1009

Don't worry

have you forgot.....the watchword here........it will go UP...;o\

Fred1new - 27 May 2005 10:38 - 61 of 1009

Douggie In real life that only refers to my weight. But I think you are right.
Not worried just trembling!!
8-0

pachandl - 27 May 2005 11:51 - 62 of 1009

Most companies are voluntarily moving across to the new system - there is nothing to really worry about. The results for last year had already included a schedule of adjustment. The benefit is that the new system will be compulsorily adopted across the whole of the EC, enabling more accurate comparisons to be made between companies operating in different countries. Unfortunately the real comparison I want to make is between RTD and Cyber but the yanks use a different system!

Oakapples142 - 27 May 2005 13:20 - 63 of 1009


Thanks for that "pachandl"

overgrowth - 27 May 2005 14:36 - 64 of 1009

Looks like a lot of "bean shuffling" to me.

It appears that adopting IFRS standards will generally have the effect of increasing pre-tax profits stated and hence EPS, achieved by removing goodwill amortisation from the P&L and posting goodwill as an asset in the balance sheet - which in turn will increase net asset value.

Goodwill (the price above fair market value which you pay for an acquisition) which consists of managerial ability, reputation and experience generally increases in value over time. Hence, IFRS views goodwill as an investment rather than an intangible asset ever decreasing in value which has to be written off (amortised) each year for the next 40 years in the income statement.

Interesting that a "Monte Carlo" simulation is mentioned in the blurb as a valuing tool for performance criteria - do they spin the wheel and hope for the best lol!

Oakapples142 - 27 May 2005 14:41 - 65 of 1009

And it can always come to rest on ZERO eh "Overgrowth"

Fundamentalist - 27 May 2005 15:11 - 66 of 1009

Hi all - OG is spot on in his assessment.

This is a change in reporting standards which has been know about for a while and was referred to in the annual reports. Ultimately it relates to a non cash item and how it is treated in the balance sheet and released through the P&L account.

The three major items are that goodwill is not to be ammortised, that R&D costs are to be capitalised and then ammortised over project life, and that Long Term Incentive Plan grants are to be charged to the P&L.


The link below takes you to the presentation document on the ReD website


http://www.redplc.com/documents/Impact_of_the_conversion_from_UK_GAAP_to_IFRS.pdf

overgrowth - 31 May 2005 09:56 - 67 of 1009

I see that the sp is ticking up nicely with what looks like the start of a return of retail investor buying support (this time without any press/tip sheet tips!) - we've not seen this for a while - it could herald the start of the next bullish phase for RTD.

overgrowth - 02 Jun 2005 11:27 - 68 of 1009

An excellent post from amarcou (advfn) on the potential positive effect of currency rates on RTD:

"US$ was around 1.80 to 1.85 throughout 2004 and at 1.90 to May 2005.Its only in the last month it went to 1.81 ie some 5% improvement in 2005 but a lot less in relation to 2004.

The AUS$ was around 2.55 to 2.60 in 2004 and started 2005 at 2.50 and is now 2.41 a 6% improvement to 2004 and 3.7% in 2005.

Turnover in 2004 was 32m.

A 5% improvement in the exchange rates ( AUS and US) on an annualised basis will result in 1.6m increase in income and 1.12m PAT ( assuming 30% tax charge).

On 295m shares ( including o\s options etc) the EPS increases from 1.06 to 1.44p ie an increase of 36% from a 5% swing in the rates!!!

However the US$ was running at an average 1.90 to May 2005 so the increase now will have the ANNUALISED effect but for 2005 the increase will only be felt in the second half.

On costs, clearly the higher currency will impact on higher translated costs and this will lower the PAT and hence the EPS.

Dont know how much of the overheads are paid in UK and hence not subject to exchange movement but one can reduce the exchange increase to a net of say 2.5% on the 32m t\o.

Extra income of 800k being 560k PAT and therefore 0.19p increase on EPS bringing it to 1.25p from 1.06p ie an 18% increase on EPS."

Any comments Fundy ?

Fundamentalist - 02 Jun 2005 12:41 - 69 of 1009

OG

just read the post on advfn - all sounds perfectly logical to me though the EPS increase sounds high to me - i plan to try and have a look at the annual report later to decipher in what currency overhead costs are borne and also whether the company is fully exposed to interest rates or whether they have exchange rate hedging in place (in which case they will only receive part of the benefit)

also, the figures used are pre the acocunting changes recently, will prob look even better on the revised figures.

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