overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
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Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
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Fundamentalist
- 25 May 2005 11:53
- 50 of 1009
Personal thoughts for what its worth are that from a chart perspective things dont look great and if it gets to 26p, this will be a significant support area that needs to hold. On last yrs results on basic EPS of 1.06p this is still currently on a PE of 25 and on broker consensus of basic EPS it is still on a forward PE of over 20. I think the broker forecasts for this yr are conservative though i also think most holders expectations are optimistic. As i have said before i see fair value as approx 30p based on my prediction of this yr results, with the key components being turning the growth in online transactions/new contracts into revenue/profit growth and the size of decline in CP transactions/revenue/profits. If they can demonstarte the translation of increased CNP transactions into revenue/profits then the SP will rocket again.
Looking to buy back in but looking for chart support to hold or for the fundamental position to change
all imho dyor etc etc
Fred1new
- 25 May 2005 15:50
- 51 of 1009
I tend to agree but just a little more optimistic about the future. By the way where is optimistic.
Fred1new
- 25 May 2005 18:08
- 53 of 1009
overgrowth You will have to stop smoking that weed if you are seeing Optimistic on a BB,
*-)
Douggie
- 26 May 2005 10:13
- 55 of 1009
!....!
Oakapples142
- 27 May 2005 07:57
- 56 of 1009
Help - what are the likely affects of to-days RNS
skyhigh
- 27 May 2005 09:09
- 57 of 1009
Don't know... but it doesn't sound that good does it?.. perhaps someone else can enlighten us !
Oakapples142
- 27 May 2005 09:14
- 58 of 1009
Skyhigh - that was my reaction - however, so far to-day buying and selling is about even - so perhaps most traders are in the dark
Fred1new
- 27 May 2005 10:08
- 59 of 1009
Fundy Where are you when you are wanted. I think it RNS is referring to profit due to different taxation systems. Possibly due to some turnover coming under American taxation system. Don't know really. Experts please!!
Douggie
- 27 May 2005 10:28
- 60 of 1009
Don't worry
have you forgot.....the watchword here........it will go UP...;o\
Fred1new
- 27 May 2005 10:38
- 61 of 1009
Douggie In real life that only refers to my weight. But I think you are right.
Not worried just trembling!!
8-0
pachandl
- 27 May 2005 11:51
- 62 of 1009
Most companies are voluntarily moving across to the new system - there is nothing to really worry about. The results for last year had already included a schedule of adjustment. The benefit is that the new system will be compulsorily adopted across the whole of the EC, enabling more accurate comparisons to be made between companies operating in different countries. Unfortunately the real comparison I want to make is between RTD and Cyber but the yanks use a different system!
Oakapples142
- 27 May 2005 13:20
- 63 of 1009
Thanks for that "pachandl"
Oakapples142
- 27 May 2005 14:41
- 65 of 1009
And it can always come to rest on ZERO eh "Overgrowth"
Fundamentalist
- 27 May 2005 15:11
- 66 of 1009
Hi all - OG is spot on in his assessment.
This is a change in reporting standards which has been know about for a while and was referred to in the annual reports. Ultimately it relates to a non cash item and how it is treated in the balance sheet and released through the P&L account.
The three major items are that goodwill is not to be ammortised, that R&D costs are to be capitalised and then ammortised over project life, and that Long Term Incentive Plan grants are to be charged to the P&L.
The link below takes you to the presentation document on the ReD website
http://www.redplc.com/documents/Impact_of_the_conversion_from_UK_GAAP_to_IFRS.pdf
Fundamentalist
- 02 Jun 2005 12:41
- 69 of 1009
OG
just read the post on advfn - all sounds perfectly logical to me though the EPS increase sounds high to me - i plan to try and have a look at the annual report later to decipher in what currency overhead costs are borne and also whether the company is fully exposed to interest rates or whether they have exchange rate hedging in place (in which case they will only receive part of the benefit)
also, the figures used are pre the acocunting changes recently, will prob look even better on the revised figures.