Close the position a couple minutes before close @ 57.26p yesterday
All the ranges were at top so ready for retracement ( Bollinger, RSI and Stochastic )

just over 4p profit or 7.63% in 3 weeks

55.65p - 0.59p

glad I sold as banks are moving lower

Lloyds Banking makes dividend Top 10 - By Stockopedia and Ben Hobson | 9th November 2016 The falling value of the pound this year has had a big impact on the stock market. On one hand, the outlook for some domestic stocks and sectors has turned uncertain. But for others with exposure to foreign markets and currencies, these conditions are ideal.

One of the immediate positive results is that dividends rose strongly in the autumn - but not all sectors did well. So where are the most promising parts of the market for dividend hunters now?

According to new figures from Capita, dividends from UK stocks rose by 1.6% to £24.9 billion between August and October. Strip out the impact of special dividends, and the rise was 2.6% to £23.9 billion.

Crucially, there was a huge £2.5 billion currency gain during the quarter. That was caused by the large dollar- and euro-denominated dividends from the likes of Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB), HSBC (HSBA) and Unilever (ULVR) being translated at much more favourable rates to sterling.

But under the surface, there were areas of concern. For a start, stocks in the mining sector were responsible for most of the £2.2 billion of payout cuts during the autumn. And, more generally, despite the overall rise in dividends, average payouts fell slightly in third-quarter on the same period last year.

Sectors and indices leading the dividend charge

On a sector basis, the most immediate beneficiaries of a weaker pound have been oil & gas, beverages, pharmaceuticals, banks and mining. The main sources of dividend growth have been telecoms, media, travel and insurance.

Mid-cap profits have outperformed, meaning these companies are growing dividends fasterIn terms of indices, almost all the dividend cuts seen in the third quarter were in the FTSE 100. But the blue-chips also enjoyed most of the foreign currency gains.

By contrast, the FTSE 250 saw the fastest dividend growth. That was up 4.9% on the same period last year, at £2.7 billion. Strip out special dividends, and underlying growth was 11.5%.

According to Capita, FTSE 250 stocks have been well insulated from the trends that have caused so much trouble in the FTSE 100 (UKX) (such as low commodity and oil prices, and industry pressures in banking and supermarkets). As a result, mid-cap profits have outperformed, meaning that these companies are growing their dividends consistently faster.

Screening the market for dividend payers

With these trends in mind, we created a dividend screen for Interactive Investor looking for high forecast yields in the most promising sectors. Apart from high yield, it looks for dividends that are growing and are well covered by earnings from companies with robust balance sheets.

It also considers the scale of each company's pension deficit as well as the valuation of the shares.

Name	Forecast Yield %	Forecast Dividend Cover	DPS Growth %, Last Year	Pension Dfct / Mkt Cap %	Value Rank
Lloyds Banking	6.4	1.9	200	0.91	63
Aviva	6.0	2.1	14.9	-	93
Stagecoach	5.9	2.0	8.6	10.5	82
ITV	5.6	1.8	27.7	2.62	60
Go-Ahead	4.8	1.9	6.5	0.29	84
Saga	4.7	1.6	75.6	1.41	54
easyJet	4.6	2.0	21.6	-	91
BT	4.5	1.9	12.9	17.7	68
Paragon of Companies	4.3	2.8	22.2	2.33	78
Sky	4.3	1.6	2.1	-	56

In terms of yield, the leading stock on the list is Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY), which hiked its dividend last year and now has a forecast yield of 6.4%. It is followed by the insurance group Aviva (AV.), on 6.0%, which has a more attractive Value Rank of 93/100.

In many cases, the prices of stocks on the list have come under pressure since the summer. Generally speaking, the cheapest stocks are in the transport sector, including Stagecoach (SGC), Go-Ahead (GOG) and easyJet (EZJ).

But it's worth noting that Stagecoach and BT (BT.A) have considerable pension deficits. That may not be a problem now, but low bond yields are causing concern when it comes to pensions deficits.

Interesting times for dividend hunters

Exchange rates have had a big impact on the landscape for dividends this year. It's early days, but Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election could impact on the value of the dollar, which means that dividend hunters should take note.

Either way, it's likely that dividend shares will continue to hold the attention of investors. The devaluation of sterling has been a welcome boost in the FTSE 100 and dividend growth among FTSE 250 companies is encouraging.

While the stock market dislikes uncertainty, there are signs that the current conditions still offer interesting options for income investors.

Is Lloyds about to head for pre-Brexit levels? - By Alistair Strang | Tue, 15th November 2016 - 09:27

Is Lloyds about to head for pre-Brexit levels? technical analysis trends targets We've tried to pretend the banking sector doesn't interest us this month but, thankfully, Lloyds (LLOY) appears on the verge of becoming interesting. If the share would simply manage to close a session above 61p, near-term movement toward 64.5p looks very likely, along with a challenge of the downtrend since 2015.
At this point, quite a strong argument favours anything above 64.5p heading toward 75p and the potential of a glass ceiling (shown in 'pink') at roughly 73.62p.

As the 'pink' line illustrates, there's a fair congregation of highs around this level and our aggregate calculation at 73.62p suggests closure above this point will favour Lloyds with some proper long-term potentials.

Initially 86p makes sense but realistically 100p is being shown as the ruling long term attraction.



So, only two hurdles ahead for Lloyds. Firstly, it needs to get above the 'blue' downtrend, then it needs close above the 'pink' glass ceiling. How hard can it be?

If trouble is planned, Lloyds now has a shark in the water below 48.5p. Anything capable of provoking reversal below such a point would be extremely bad, as it could easily lose a third of its value.

We're forced to mention this due to the presence of a near-term 'red' uptrend.

This currently suggests any weakness below 54.5p risks a visit to 52p initially with secondary, if broken, at 49p, frighteningly close to an uptrend since 2012 (shown with invisible ink).

We're mentioning this, 'cos we obviously must look at both sides of the coin. However, Lloyds has recently been making some positive movement and hopefully we're about to witness an attempt to cover the Brexit manipulation gap at 72p.

Reuters - Britain has cut its stake in Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) to just below 8 percent in a renewed attempt to return the lender to full private ownership over the next year.

Lloyds said in a statement on Tuesday the government had reduced its stake in the bank by about 1 percentage point to 7.99 percent.

UK Financial Investments Limited (UKFI), which manages the government's stake in the bailed-out bank, last month resumed share sales that were shelved almost a year ago because of market turbulence.

"Today's announcement shows the further progress made in returning Lloyds Banking Group to full private ownership and enabling the taxpayer to get their money back," the bank said in a statement.

Lloyds was rescued with a 20.5 billion pound taxpayer-funded bailout during the 2007-09 financial crisis, leaving the state holding 43 percent.

British finance minister Philip Hammond is under pressure to recoup cash from the government's stake in Lloyds and fellow bailed-out bank Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) to relieve a likely shortfall in the nation's finances.

The UK has recouped over 17 billion pounds of taxpayer cash after it began selling off its stake in 2013.

Goldman Sachs today reaffirms its sell investment rating on Lloyds Banking Group PLC ORD (LON:LLOY) and raised its price target to 52p (from 50p).

Is that old news or they on drugs. Sell and raise sp. ...... to 52p when it's already over...... don't understand.

Think it means sell now cos it's going to drop to 52p instead of 50p but who would know!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wouldn't trust Goldman Sachs with my packet of Fruit Pastels .

You sell, we buy, you buy, we sell.

Exactly Fred.

GS are well known for only being interested in making profits for themselves, clients being just cash cows

Credit Suisse today initiates coverage of Lloyds Banking Group PLC ORD (LON:LLOY) with a neutral investment rating and price target of 65p.

Cazenove comment on the stress test results today:
"Expect Lloyds to increase dividends post this result: Lloyds CT1 ratio declined from 12.8% (FY15) to 10.3% post management actions in the stress scenario which was significantly above the 7.0% hurdle rate. The net drawdown of 2.5% was the second smallest amongst the banks stress tested after Santander UK. The strong stress test performance from Lloyds re-affirms its strong capital and balance sheet position. As a result, we believe that Lloyds remains well placed to increase dividend distributions at 4Q’16."

Why Lloyds rally may not be over
By Alistair Strang | Thu, 8th December 2016 - 09:33

The big question is, how can we see Lloyds (LLOY) up 4% and still describe it as underperforming? The answer, quite simply, comes from utter frustration. Last month, we'd assigned a trigger level to Lloyds at 61p, and the very next day it managed to close above at 61.4p. So it was all go for a party!

It bettered our trigger level, then retreated in fright, but thankfully did not trouble the cancellation parameter of 54.5p. It simply opted to spend the last month wasting everyone's time and, now it has again bettered 61p, we're less than frothing with anticipation.

After all, who knows of a retail bank capable of doing the right thing by its customers and investors?

We've decided to look again at the sexily named NMW8350 index, the rogues gallery, the banking master index. At time of writing, it's trading at 4,218.9 and the day high has been 4,239.

There's sod all important about these numbers other than the salient detail this index needed to close Wednesday above roughly 4,222.249 to indicate a break above the ruling downtrend since 2013.

Common sense alone would dictate this is a good thing for the banking sector as it permits growth toward 4,440 initially with secondary, if bettered, at a very interesting 4,973 points.

To cut to the chase, a 17% rise against the banking sector is obviously going to reflect well on its inmates - such as the clown retail banks like Lloyds.


Regular readers will have noticed our occasional somewhat jaundiced comments against the banks as a heck of a lot of 'em have been kicking at their stable door in an effort to improve the share price.

To return to Lloyds, it's highly likely the initial close above 61p - which did nothing - was due to the sector itself not being ready to move.

Now, a month later, we shall again pretend optimism and suggest it's now worth a lot of attention should the share start trading above 62.6p intraday.

Something like this allows for a tight(ish) stop - below 60p - and we'd expect the price to challenge an initial 64.5p but, realistically, once some stutters at this level conclude (‘blue’ line downtrend syndrome), it should head on upward toward 75p.

Folk with eyes will notice a problem on the chart just below our 75p ambition. Essentially, if Lloyds closes above this "Glass Ceiling @ 74p", just go long and wait till we update this diatribe.

And, of course, the other problem is shown in red. Anything capable of now driving the price below 54p hints of Running Shoes being an ideal Xmas present.

Best bank share tip for 2017 - By Lee Wild | Thu, 8th December 2016 - 09:00

Best bank share tip for 2017 UBS research European bank sector price to book London's bank shares index is hardly changed in 2016, but the past 11 months have been anything but dull. After losing over a quarter of its value during the first six weeks of the year, the sector rallied more than 40% from its post-EU referendum low. Things could get even better for some, according to UBS, which has just named its top picks for 2017.

"The turnaround in sector performance reflects increased optimism about global growth, expectations of economic expansion together with prospects of higher interest rates, especially following in the US presidential election," explains UBS.

"Should the banking sector finish the year in positive territory, it will be the first time since 2013, when the sector ended up 13.5%."

In a hefty 95-page tome, the broker's team of analysts outline a number of positive developments for the industry, suggesting fundamentals are improving.

Expect a gradual recovery in loan growth, which UBS believes has bottomed out, and a benign environment for asset quality as capital is built up. The broker's expectations for return on equity (ROE) have improved 20 basis points in recent months, yet remain well below historical levels at a forecast 10.7% in 2017.

A 96-basis point jump in US 10-year bond yields since July to 2.32% is also good news for banks. Traders think president-elect Donald Trump's promised economic stimulus could underpin faster growth and herald the return of inflation, says UBS.

"Analysis of US 10-year bond yields and global banks' share price performance over the past 10 years shows a reasonably positive correlation, implying that rising US Treasury yields tend to be generally positive for global banks' share price performance."
Stand-out lenders

Eleven lenders stand out for the broker, although from the UK only Lloyds Banking (LLOY) makes the "most preferred" list, with a 'buy' rating and 67p price target. In fact, it's one of UBS's key recommendations across the European bank sector.

It's among the cheapest in terms of price/earnings (PE) multiples, too, trading on 8.1 times adjusted earnings per share, rising to 9.2 in 2017. A price-to-book ratio of 1 times and 0.9 times, respectively, is low, too, while forward dividend yield of 6.9% for next year is streets ahead of the other ten UBS top picks.

Lloyds should stay capital generative, delivering a 5% yield in 2016 and 7% in 2017"As the only large-cap UK lender with the capacity to re-price deposits enough to offset the impact on loan returns of a lower BoE rate, we expect a resilient net interest margin," says UBS analyst Jason Napier.

"Lloyds has also done the least to reset its branch network for the digital age over the last five years, leaving room for further cost-cutting if required.

"A lower-risk loan portfolio should keep impairments manageable. In all, we expect the franchise to remain strongly capital-generative, delivering a 5% yield in 2016 and 7% in 2017."

Uncertainty in spades

That's reassuring, considering there's uncertainty in spades, specifically around Brexit and Article 50. Another anticipated cut in interest rates by the Bank of England will also further pressure margins.

However, Napier predicts strong growth in stated profits in 2017 for the five major listed UK banks, driven by big reductions in "below-the-line" charges and non-core asset losses.

Questor tipping Lloyds for its dividends in today's Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/buy-lloyds-set-become-dividend-paying-machine/

JP Morgan Cazenove today reaffirms its neutral investment rating on Lloyds Banking Group PLC ORD (LON:LLOY) and raised its price target to 70p (from 68p)

StockMarketWire.com
The UK Government has reduced its stake in Lloyds Banking Group to 6.93%

Norges Bank Below 3%