goldfinger
- 09 Jun 2005 12:25
Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).
Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.
cheers GF.
aldwickk
- 18 Nov 2014 14:30
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If this thread was Question Time on the BBC , goldfinger , Fred and Stan would get a public vote of 0 with Haystack 5 , cynic 4, Chris 4,and the rest 3 .3/4 apart from TANKER who i can't find a rating for
Shortie
- 18 Nov 2014 14:30
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aldwickk
- 18 Nov 2014 14:35
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cynic
Your so wrong , its been making headlines around the World on TV , and in the papers before Geldoff got on the band wagon
Chris Carson
- 18 Nov 2014 14:43
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Labour faces slaughter in Scotland
Some models suggest Labour will be left with just five seats in Scotland after the general election. It's not quite that bad, but it will still be a bloodbath
By Stephen Bush12:54PM GMT 18 Nov 2014Comments24 Comments
How bad are things for Labour in Scotland? Another poll shows them being all but wiped out on a uniform swing, reduced to just five seats north of the border.
Of course, we know that things very rarely happen on a uniform swing. Many Labour MPs are well dug in with big majorities, while it seems unlikely that the Scottish National Party’s surge will be happening with the same fervour in Unionist strongholds as in those parts of the country that voted for Yes.
What we do know is that around four in 10 people who voted Labour in 2010 are now voting for the SNP, and that three in 10 Labour supporters voted Yes in September. What we’re seeing is the end of the so-called “Red Nats” – people who voted Labour at Westminster and for a separatist party in Holyrood – while the SNP is still holding onto what you might call “Yellow Unionists” – people who voted for the Union in September but vote for the SNP at elections, plus the loss of Union supporters who felt that Gordon Brown was a more effective voice for Scotland in the United Kingdom than David Cameron or Alex Salmond but aren’t sold on Ed Miliband. In addition, the SNP have been boosted by the collapse of the Liberals, roughly a third of which has flowed to Nationalists according to Survation and YouGov. (Ipsos Mori , who also showed a heavy swing to the SNP, don’t weight by past vote, so it is harder to tell in their surveys where the SNP vote is coming from.)
Using the result of the last election and the referendum we can guess, roughly, where Labour will suffer the biggest loss in support. So in Glasgow, where Yes triumphed by 53.5 per cent of the vote to 46.5 per cent, I’ve assumed that half of the electorate in 2015 will be Yes supporters – and of that half, a third will be Labour voters now supporting the SNP.
This model is fairly generous to Labour in assuming that turnout will be the same as in 2010 and the SNP will not repeat the feat of the independence referendum of adding new voters to their tally, but I’ve also been generous to the SNP in factoring out the quality level of their new recruits. We know that the separatists are now far and away the largest party in Scotland; but we don’t know anything as to the commitment of their new activists. Will they knock on doors in the driving rain? And will their candidates be able to present an appealing face to the electorate? Don’t forget that Andy Slaughter in Hammersmith was able to hold on partly because the Conservative candidate, Shaun Bailey, flopped locally. But these two assumptions probably – hopefully – cancel each other out.
I’ve also accounted for the Liberal collapse, which, north of the border, benefits the SNP significantly more than Labour. The good(ish) news for Labour, and the broader Unionist cause, first. Under a uniform swing Labour would be reduced to five seats. Under my model, Labour would hold on to 22 seats, with Jim Murphy’s seat of East Renfrewshire the safest Labour seat with a majority of 11,578.
Now for the bad news. Labour would be wiped out in Aberdeen and Dundee. It would lose Falkirk by 7,155 votes – a seat that, under various names, the party has held since 1935. The party would lose three seats in Glasgow, including that of Anas Sarwar, the former deputy leader of Scottish Labour and now Opposition frontbencher. It would hold onto Glasgow East by just 977 votes and Glasgow North West by 1416 votes. Under my model, only Willie Bain’s Glasgow North East could be considered safe, with the others remaining red by narrow margins.
Labour would keep hold of just one seat in Edinburgh – Alistair Darling’s Edinburgh South West – where the SNP would take Edinburgh East and Edinburgh North & Leigh from third place and Edinburgh South from fourth. In North Ayrshire & Arran, Katy Clark, the left’s candidate for deputy leader, would lose her seat by almost 4,000 votes.
Former strongholds would remain in the red column but only just. Stirling would remain Labour-controlled, but only by 204 votes despite the fact that the SNP came third in 2010. Gemma Doyle’s West Dunbartonshire – current majority of over 16,000 – would be kept by only 2453. Douglas Alexander, Labour’s foreign policy lead and election coordinator, would go from a majority of 16,000 to just 4438. John Reid’s old seat of Airdrie & Shotts would go from a majority of 12,000 to a mere 573 votes. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock would go down to the wire – Labour would have a lead of 167 over the SNP, who are now third, but even a small Conservative boost there would see that party come through the middle.
All in all, the following seats would fall to the SNP: Aberdeen North, Aberdeen South, Dundee West, Dunfermline & West Fife, Edinburgh East, Edinburgh North & Leith, Edinburgh South, Falkirk, Glasgow Central, Glasgow North, Inverclyde, Kilmarnock and Loudoun, Livingston, Midlothian, North Ayrshire & Arran and Ochil & South Perthshire.
The following seats would be held by fewer than 1,000 votes: Airdrie & Shotts, Ayr Carrick & Cumnock, Cumbernauld, East Kilbride, Glasgow East, Lanark & Hamilton East, and Stirling.
The best news for Labour in Scotland? At least they’re not the Liberal Democrats.
goldfinger
- 18 Nov 2014 14:43
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cynic Send an email to cynic View cynic's profile - 18 Nov 2014 14:15 - 50609 of 50615
gosh we have some bitter and twisted members on here!
GF - what on earth is wrong or criminal in AVOIDING tax? ...... ENDS
Because other people have to pick up the avoiders tab/responsibility and if you cant see that then I have to say you are being rather selfish especially when the tax take in this country is not meeting up with spending and debt as to be borrowed and interest paid and a vicious circle is in play.
aldwickk
- 18 Nov 2014 14:50
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goldfinger
Are you saying all the company's that you make a profit from trading, don't avoid paying tax if possible ?
Haystack
- 18 Nov 2014 14:51
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There is nothing wrong with avoiding tax. It is not a moral question. What I dislike is the hypochrasy of people like Geldof preaching about more money from governments when he is denying them his tax.
goldfinger
- 18 Nov 2014 14:55
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Ohhh shut up Hays we expect nothing less from a selfish twonk like you.
Yes you look after yourself, and forget about everyone else.
Look after number one.
Typical Tory attitude and why they will lose the next GE.
cynic
- 18 Nov 2014 14:57
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FFS - if you don't wish to AVOID tax then don't, but morally that means abandoning your pension and all the sundry other tax allowances that you enjoy, including that of writing a will and/or passing on your estate to your spouse - you would say as of right
one equally has a right to AVOID paying tax
if that route becomes too "aggressive" then HMRC will assuredly guide you back into the paths of righteousness ......
but don't go rabbiting on with all this crap about avoidance being immoral
as and when HMRC starts taking a clear moral stance, your argument might have some substance
as it stands, it does not
Chris Carson
- 18 Nov 2014 14:57
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gf - losing it again, hang onto your threads :0)
aldwickk
- 18 Nov 2014 15:01
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hang onto your threads :0) ..... lol
Stan
- 18 Nov 2014 15:02
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"Further names of all wealthy "off shore" tax evader/avoiders please H/S."
Haystack
- 18 Nov 2014 15:09
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Stan
They are easy to find. Mick Jagger is also registered in the BVI.
Philip Green, that owns Top Shop etc, put the company in his wife's name in Monaco. It saved him a £1billion one year in tax when he took a dividend. He is Monaco resident and commutes almost daily by private jet.
Stan
- 18 Nov 2014 15:12
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Thanks H/S, but whats the BVI?
Haystack
- 18 Nov 2014 15:13
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British Virgin Islands. A tax shelter.
Same as Geldof
Haystack
- 18 Nov 2014 15:20
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Taveta Investments, the company used to acquire Arcadia in 2002, is in the name of Green's wife, Tina Green, a Monaco resident, resulting in a significantly lower tax liability than the £150 million that would be payable if a UK resident owned the company.[32] When Green paid his family £1.2 billion in 2005, it was paid for by a loan taken out by Arcadia, cutting Arcadia's corporation tax as interest charges on the loan were offset against profits.
goldfinger
- 18 Nov 2014 15:23
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Cynic your only kidding yourself if your avoiding tax, at some time or other because the government cant collect enough tax to balance the budget with spending, they are going to whack you one way or the other with a decrease in spending on you as an individual or they will put tax rates or NI up, they cant just go on accumulating debt.
eg, Why on earth are we debating the Mansion Tax today, answer, because theres not enough money in the kitty to keep standards in the NHS at current levels.
Its only a matter of time not if.
What comes around goes around.
You really are fooling yourself if you think by avoiding a few bob you have done well for yourself and family, you havent.
Youl pay further down the line, thats a certainty.
Stan
- 18 Nov 2014 15:24
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Yes Green is a well known off shore tax scrounger, but is there a site that lists all of them or nearly all?
goldfinger
- 18 Nov 2014 15:25
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Tax evasion is a different thing, but your a criminal if you indulge in that.
aldwickk
- 18 Nov 2014 15:31
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cynic
Did he answer the question ? , or using Fred's trick by changing and twisting the subject