cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
cynic
- 17 Apr 2010 11:37
- 5072 of 21973
my gut feeling is that 11000 won't hold
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there has always always been hire-purchase and there's always ways around deposits or similar .... and for sure you can't stop companies offering what look on the surface to be very attractive deals, even if the interest is already built into the price
halifax
- 17 Apr 2010 13:43
- 5073 of 21973
seems strange to us based on the news so far that Goldman Sachs have not been charged with (criminal) theft by deception.
cynic
- 17 Apr 2010 13:48
- 5074 of 21973
well try this then .... longer version on cnnfn.com
The Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday charged Wall Street's most gilded firm, Goldman Sachs, with defrauding investors in a sale of securities tied to subprime mortgages.
The SEC said it charged New York-based Goldman (GS, Fortune 500) and a vice president, Fabrice Tourre, for their failure to disclose conflicts in a 2007 sale of a so-called collateralized debt obligation
halifax
- 17 Apr 2010 13:50
- 5075 of 21973
cynic yes that is the present situation but it is apparently a civil action not a criminal action.
cynic
- 17 Apr 2010 14:18
- 5076 of 21973
spot the difference! ..... it will assuredly unsettle the markets (quite badly), not least because dow in particular is currently o'bought and looking for a good reason to correct sharply
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the serious implications of the airport closures across europe may also start to register on the investing public ..... it has much greater economic significance that might first be realised
Falcothou
- 17 Apr 2010 21:39
- 5077 of 21973
Ironic that the PIIGS have been spared the ash and are airborne
jimmy b
- 18 Apr 2010 00:46
- 5078 of 21973
I wonder if folk will start shorting the airlines ? , i thought it would be back to normal in a day or so but this looks as though it's ongoing.
required field
- 18 Apr 2010 09:13
- 5079 of 21973
Buy ferry operators, short european airlines !.....and bus operators...perhaps trains as well...I imagine Eurostar must be running at full capacity...
Chris Carson
- 18 Apr 2010 10:27
- 5080 of 21973
Can't help thinking no pun intended every cloud has a silver lining as outlined above traders will just move from sector to sector going long and short. Until interest rates increase stocks in the right sectors are still attractive for now.
HARRYCAT
- 18 Apr 2010 11:29
- 5081 of 21973
Ferries running at full capacity, but I don't think either P&O or SeaFrance are LSE listed.
Eurostar certainly full to capacity with a long waiting list, but this is only a short term bubble, imo, so once the prevailing wind changes & the dust cloud goes elsewhere, the airlines will be busy again. I agree though, short the low cost carriers, though long haul operators less hard hit.
halifax
- 18 Apr 2010 13:47
- 5082 of 21973
cynic if the SEC is "gunning" for the "vampire squid" then it is very likely this would lead to more fraud being uncovered and the effect could have a major impact on the DJIA especially bank shares.
cynic
- 18 Apr 2010 14:45
- 5083 of 21973
whose phrase was the "vampire squid" - love it! ..... but yes as i agree; as i said, this will turn out to be a can of worms
Pointdexter
- 18 Apr 2010 17:24
- 5084 of 21973
A good article( a little out of date): I suspect the stock markets are way overbought and a material correction is imminent.
Over the past month we have seen a continuation of the primary trend in currencies, stocks and commodities. However, with the exception of stocks, which at the time of writing remain in a relatively stable and quiet state, most markets remain volatile. There have been some decent moves in some commodity and currency markets but these markets have also seen wild swings and corrections.
Stocks seem to be moving ever higher but are at the time of writing running up against the buffers of round numbers and resistance. The trading ranges in these stock markets seems to be getting narrower by the day, which indicates that firstly the markets may be gearing up for a large move and the also the current rally is getting a bit tired.
At the time of writing, the Dow 30 has just had a go at the 11000 level but was unable to stay above it and closed back at 10952. The Nasdaq 100 also touched the 2000 level and was also unable to stay there so far. The primary market, which is the S&P 500 just posted a high of 1198.2 but also pulled back to the close.
Whilst it would be fair to say that the stock markets are due a correction (it is now some 45 days since we have had a pullback in excess of 1% on the S&P 500), the flip side is that if these round numbers can be cleared then we may get a substantial rally higher, with the prior (current) acting as support. This may pave the way for a sharp 200 point rally on the Dow. Going back though my data, it would seem that the longest we have ever gone without a 1% correction is 67 days, so the current state of affairs is not unprecedented and could continue higher. As ever, we will follow the trend for as long as it runs on for and keep ratcheting up the stops in accordance with the support levels to lock in our profits on these trades.
Volatility remains at insanely low levels for stocks (other markets such as commodities and forex, which do not affect the VIX index seem to be taking on the volatility instead!). The VIX as of yesterday (chart below) posted new lows again at 15.23, which runs in line with the tight ranges in the stock markets and what appears to be ever continuing complacency with the current levels in the stock markets. There is only so much further that the VIX can decline so we will likely see an increase in stock index volatility soon
Camelot
- 18 Apr 2010 23:40
- 5085 of 21973
you may have to wait until the market believes they are going to withdraw QE
no sign of it yet
NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters)
"Investors also sold the dollar as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in congressional testimony, reiterated that the central bank currently anticipates that "very low, extremely low " interest rates will be needed for an "extended period" given expectations for a moderate U.S. economic recovery. "
jimmy b
- 19 Apr 2010 04:30
- 5086 of 21973
Tomorrow should be interesting ,what with Goldman and no planes flying ,,although there seems to be no rhym or reason to the market of late .
Camelot
- 19 Apr 2010 07:49
- 5087 of 21973
same as friday then ?
Goldmans will find a way to make money out of this I suspect
:-)
but cable heading for 1.51+ on polls ?
cynic
- 19 Apr 2010 10:23
- 5088 of 21973
all a bit hairy-scary and volatile, but am now short both FTSE and Dow, though watching carefully
HARRYCAT
- 19 Apr 2010 10:24
- 5089 of 21973
As predicted Easyjet, Brit Airways, Thos Cook & TUI Travel biggest losers today.
Have checked with a friend who works for P&O. They are not listed on the LSE so sadly no opportunity to buy their shares, particularly as they are the only operator which take foot passengers, Sealink do not. Foot passenger price currently 5x the usual!!!!
halifax
- 19 Apr 2010 12:15
- 5090 of 21973
harry we do own the Royal Navy apparently coming to the rescue of stranded britons!
jimmy b
- 19 Apr 2010 13:24
- 5091 of 21973
Royal Navy going to the rescue ,election time ,funny that .