cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
cynic
- 18 Apr 2010 14:45
- 5083 of 21973
whose phrase was the "vampire squid" - love it! ..... but yes as i agree; as i said, this will turn out to be a can of worms
Pointdexter
- 18 Apr 2010 17:24
- 5084 of 21973
A good article( a little out of date): I suspect the stock markets are way overbought and a material correction is imminent.
Over the past month we have seen a continuation of the primary trend in currencies, stocks and commodities. However, with the exception of stocks, which at the time of writing remain in a relatively stable and quiet state, most markets remain volatile. There have been some decent moves in some commodity and currency markets but these markets have also seen wild swings and corrections.
Stocks seem to be moving ever higher but are at the time of writing running up against the buffers of round numbers and resistance. The trading ranges in these stock markets seems to be getting narrower by the day, which indicates that firstly the markets may be gearing up for a large move and the also the current rally is getting a bit tired.
At the time of writing, the Dow 30 has just had a go at the 11000 level but was unable to stay above it and closed back at 10952. The Nasdaq 100 also touched the 2000 level and was also unable to stay there so far. The primary market, which is the S&P 500 just posted a high of 1198.2 but also pulled back to the close.
Whilst it would be fair to say that the stock markets are due a correction (it is now some 45 days since we have had a pullback in excess of 1% on the S&P 500), the flip side is that if these round numbers can be cleared then we may get a substantial rally higher, with the prior (current) acting as support. This may pave the way for a sharp 200 point rally on the Dow. Going back though my data, it would seem that the longest we have ever gone without a 1% correction is 67 days, so the current state of affairs is not unprecedented and could continue higher. As ever, we will follow the trend for as long as it runs on for and keep ratcheting up the stops in accordance with the support levels to lock in our profits on these trades.
Volatility remains at insanely low levels for stocks (other markets such as commodities and forex, which do not affect the VIX index seem to be taking on the volatility instead!). The VIX as of yesterday (chart below) posted new lows again at 15.23, which runs in line with the tight ranges in the stock markets and what appears to be ever continuing complacency with the current levels in the stock markets. There is only so much further that the VIX can decline so we will likely see an increase in stock index volatility soon
Camelot
- 18 Apr 2010 23:40
- 5085 of 21973
you may have to wait until the market believes they are going to withdraw QE
no sign of it yet
NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters)
"Investors also sold the dollar as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in congressional testimony, reiterated that the central bank currently anticipates that "very low, extremely low " interest rates will be needed for an "extended period" given expectations for a moderate U.S. economic recovery. "
jimmy b
- 19 Apr 2010 04:30
- 5086 of 21973
Tomorrow should be interesting ,what with Goldman and no planes flying ,,although there seems to be no rhym or reason to the market of late .
Camelot
- 19 Apr 2010 07:49
- 5087 of 21973
same as friday then ?
Goldmans will find a way to make money out of this I suspect
:-)
but cable heading for 1.51+ on polls ?
cynic
- 19 Apr 2010 10:23
- 5088 of 21973
all a bit hairy-scary and volatile, but am now short both FTSE and Dow, though watching carefully
HARRYCAT
- 19 Apr 2010 10:24
- 5089 of 21973
As predicted Easyjet, Brit Airways, Thos Cook & TUI Travel biggest losers today.
Have checked with a friend who works for P&O. They are not listed on the LSE so sadly no opportunity to buy their shares, particularly as they are the only operator which take foot passengers, Sealink do not. Foot passenger price currently 5x the usual!!!!
halifax
- 19 Apr 2010 12:15
- 5090 of 21973
harry we do own the Royal Navy apparently coming to the rescue of stranded britons!
jimmy b
- 19 Apr 2010 13:24
- 5091 of 21973
Royal Navy going to the rescue ,election time ,funny that .
Balerboy
- 19 Apr 2010 13:56
- 5092 of 21973
is this the lull before the storm, cynic. Nothing much happened at mo...sp's are down but not a lot. will it hang on the DOW's level later on?
cynic
- 19 Apr 2010 14:15
- 5093 of 21973
probably ...... i think the london markets may become pretty volatile over the coming weeks, not just because of this goldman shennanigans, but also because of the impending election
Chris Carson
- 19 Apr 2010 15:21
- 5094 of 21973
Cynic Ftse will follow the Dow as usual, totally immateriel what happens in this country election whatever! As long as reporting season in US remains positive, quantative easing remains in place and interest rates don't rise anything could happen, watch this space :o)
cynic
- 19 Apr 2010 15:37
- 5095 of 21973
i certainly agree with the sentiment "anything could happen", but my view is that south is the more likely
halifax
- 19 Apr 2010 17:43
- 5096 of 21973
cynic ho hum DJIA back above 11000 Goldman effect seems to be declining and flights starting again in Europe after volcano scare wears a bit thin.
Balerboy
- 19 Apr 2010 19:47
- 5097 of 21973
DOW risen 60 points since 6.00pm just touched 10999 but back up now???
dealerdear
- 19 Apr 2010 20:22
- 5098 of 21973
I've found in this market everything happens in reverse.
So decide what you think is going to happen, then do the opposite.
jkd
- 19 Apr 2010 22:15
- 5099 of 21973
dd
what? and lose money? LoL!
regards
jkd
splat
- 20 Apr 2010 11:30
- 5100 of 21973
normal service resumed for the Dow, looks like up, up and away, as opposed to our planes.
2517GEORGE
- 20 Apr 2010 12:10
- 5101 of 21973
Look on the brightside, illegal immigration has drastically reduced over recent days.
2517
halifax
- 20 Apr 2010 12:19
- 5102 of 21973
Is that why Bown is sending the Ark Royal to bring in a few more votes before the election!