for more information about stanelco click on the links.

driver's research page link
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=7681#lastread
website link
http://www.stanelco.co.uk/index.htm

Research Page:

http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/ShowPostList?fID=1&tID=5042

competition if there is any are 1 year behind SEO.

It occurs to me that there is a common bond that unites the posters to this thread - that SEO is a major means of making money. Dynamite is making lots of money by trading the spread and making sure that she is in before the major jump and out again before the reaction. The chart pattern has been extremely dynamic but clearly predictable to those skilled at reading it. andysmith has invested low and holding until it reaches at least 1. Despite Evil Knievil twice having cold feet and baling out from short positions claiming a profit, his acolytes will certainly have lost. Then we have our resident bear, the one who gives most others a sore head.

Having thought it through and read everything I can get my hands on, I don't believe the current forecasts - they are either too pessimistic or too optimistic. Its really a question of the classic economic s-curve. This is something that comments about disappointing early orders conveniently forget. The initial gradient reflects early entrants into the market, prepared to take a risk for competitive advantage. The s-bend leads to a steeper gradient as the product is taken by all those who fear competitive disadvantage. If we stay at the initial gradient then the sp and current cap. are far too high. But, assuming the curve reaches the second gradient, the order volume used for the projections is far too low as that slope only eases off as market saturation hoves into view. A return to 6p- or a run to 1+ reflect the two options.

Based on the UK market, the ASDA contract represents the first gradient, say 200 orders in the year of exclusivity; then the increase in volume as the pent up demand from other supermarkets is met in year two. In my view, the US market will bring forward the gradient increase based on the positive trials with ASDA suppliers. The contracts with Premier and Advanced give the support to enable the market demand to be satisfied. The prospective gradient should be known in weeks rather than months. evolution and others will respond with upgraded forecasts and the sp will run out of reach. This is an argument, not only against the bear-position, but those who believe they can watch for the buying opportunity from the sidelines.

Happy to clarify or justify this position.

Eric

ii, thank you for your posts. feels good for next week now.

I would like to thank eric for his post, that also feels good for next week.

bos
Fiver in the bin.

What is it about insider!. He expects us to give him credibility, but his rants give me, and i suspect many others the impression that either SEO have passed on to him some form of incurable illness, and he simply hates them, or that he is simply trying to influence the price to his own ends. I recall his prophecy of doom when the price was around 19p. At circa 27p he is still thumping the end of the world drum. How can he expect to be taken seriously when he only has one view which is very subjective. I am not an expert, but common sense tells me that this company has huge potential. It has a risk like all companies, but the potential gains far outweigh the risks.

keith thomas
Fiver in the bin.

1910
Where are you, I can't sit here all day keeping count I have been to work you know.

keith thomas,

I agree with you there :)

he/she/it has been bashing Stanelco on at leas 6 discussion boards that I know of, all on different websites, and all hours of the day, and even tried to set up a thread simply to bash Stanelco on fillyaboots.com, but was removed before the day was out.

I suggest anyone who does not want to read lies, misinformation, scaremongering, and blatent bashing, from this bitter twisted bprg loser, make use of this websites Filter option, by clicking the name, then adding it to the 'squelch' list.

Discussion boards should be policed, and anyone who is no able to discuss, and brings the board nothing but lies, misinformation, and scaremongering, should be banned.

99% of people here are trying to make money by investing, and insiderinside is trying to make us all lose money.

Cheers,
PM

What strange beliefs some people have.

paulmasterson1 - 30 May'05 - 15:29 - 5092 of 5093 (Filtered)

I suggest anyone who does not want to read lies, misinformation, scaremongering, and blatent bashing, from this bitter twisted loser, make use of this websites Filter option, by clicking the name, then adding it to the 'squelch' list.
----------------

sounds good advice to me , what a goon!-discussion boards should be policed and anyone with a contrarian view to the majority should be banned, is what this $$%%%$ really means, totally anti-social

Hi All,

Some posters claim to be experts, but what do the REAL qualified experts say ????

 

Tim Freeborne - Stanelco Analyst for Evolution Beeson Gregory

Tim covers a range of industrial and technology companies, with emphasis on high growth situations. After reading philosophy at university he qualified as a chartered accountant and specialised in corporate tax. For 12 years he was a City reporter with the Daily Mail and then worked briefly in venture capital. He later edited a tipsheet and wrote part-time for Shares Magazine. Tim joined Evolution in October 2004.

 

All the following quotes are taken from Evolution Beeson Gregory Brokers Notes, 'EVO' are FSA regulated, is anyone here FSA regulated, or a member of the Securities Institute or other professional investment body/authorithy ????

Evolution Securities Ltd (Evolution Securities) (Incorporated in England No.2316630), which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority for designated investment business and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

First, lets look at the Patent Dispute.

11 January 2005 - 'Initiating Coverage'

In a High Court hearing last year it was held that Stanelco had breached the terms of a non-disclosure agreement with BioProgress. The Court awarded BioProgress ownership of some patents issued by InGel but this ruling is being appealed. Without Stanelcos know-how and its other patents, it is very doubtful BioProgress can use these patents commercially. For this reason we believe it is unlikely that damages would be material

 

28 February

Litigation provisionThe figures include a 1.1m provision which we believe relates to the patent battle with BioProgress. Both sides are determined to prove they will defend their intellectual property rights. Stanelco is applying for leave to appeal against last years judgement, which left one patent with BioProgress.

 

24 March

The Bioprogress lawsuitOn 18 March the High Court gave Stanelco leave to appeal against last years ruling which granted a patent to Bioprogress. The judge ordered Bioprogress to pay Stanelco 9,750 towards its costs. He also froze the transfers of the patent. The encapsulation technology under dispute has no bearing on Greenseal. Its main importance is simply to show Stanelco will fight hard to defend its intellectual property.

Now a bit from KBC Hardman & CO

5 May 2005

The Legal ActionStanelco has been granted leave to appeal in the Bioprogress case. Effectively, the InGel joint venture and the detergent packaging business appear to bemothballed until further notice, since the ownership of the patents is still disputed. We have therefore adopted pretty much a scorched earth policy and removed any revenue from these areas from our forecasts. In the event that SEO wins the appeal we would expect to see a writeback of provisions made against legal costs.

 

Now lets look at the 'non-existent' competition issue.

11 January 2005 - 'Initiating Coverage'

The key issue for investors here is how difficult it will be for other RF companies to launch rival solutions. The field does not appear to be crowded. Most companies that offer RF sealing only do it as a minor sideline to heat-based solutions. Stanelco has over 50 years experience in the technology and we expect it will enjoy a lead of several years before rival solutions appear. The company has spent heavily on patent filings for various parts of the process and is confident several will be granted in the near future. It has seen no similar applications by other companies. The opportunity for RF may stretch far beyond the world of meat trays. Most areas of food packaging may benefit from the system. Wherever heat bonding is used, RF should be able to offer a cheaper alternative. Because of this astonishing potential we are not concerned in the short and even medium term about price erosion.

 

8 February

These numbers may seem far-fetched, but we believe they are likely to be cautious, certainly for the later years. The main risk from this point is the emergence of a rival system with similar cost-saving abilities. At the moment there seems to be nothing on the horizon and the company is investing heavily in legal protection of its intellectual property.

23 May

There is compelling evidence for believing Greenseal will win many orders. The key uncertainty is the durability of its patents. Stanelco has applied for broad patents covering the use of radio frequency in food sealing. Its agents report there are no previous filings which conflict in any way.

 

Also, the bashers were having a field day trying to scaremonger over the delay in the last 3 ASDA trials, but this bit tells the true story.

The downside of the Asda option is that three RF lidding trials with packagers are on hold because the lines in question are dedicated to rival supermarkets. The same packagers serve several supermarkets. Therefore Stanelco believes it will have a relatively easy task converting non-Asda lines after the end of the one yearexclusive.

 

Cheers,

PM

5 @driver. must be enough for a round now!!!!!

Sequestor
Back all ready you didn't want to take up jimmy's offer of paying your hotel bill for a week, we thought you could do with a rest.

paul, this is all old news and we are pretty much familiar with it. there isn't much else to do now , except to wait for further news.

bos
We have got more than a round jimmy owe's it about 40

bos
The wife's just got in from doing a car boot 125 not bad for a load of old rubbish, she gave me 2
and half the stuff was mine.

Bosley Hi,

Old news that the bashers try and skirt around, with their made up stories of competition appearing, and a big damages claim, which all existing shareholders know is rubbish, so I have posted that info for the newcomers.

Cheers,
PM

I wouldn`t know what the jimmy clown is saying as he is filtered permanently, along with the paulmasterw&%$r idiot, as for paying my hotelbill for a week . he couldn`t afford the deposit.

driver
Fancy the poor Mrs having to scrabble for some extra cash at a car boot's sale! Bet you haven't even told her about Stanelco!

bos, Paul
I think its helpful to have a repeat of professional opinions that address potential concerns exploited by those who wish to overplay the risk aspects. That's the reason why I tend to come back to the key issues. The BPRG litigation is clearly a dead-duck; it could quack back into some sort of life but is really insignificant to SEO as it is today - only impact is that the InGel project has been prioritised downwards; it may be good that management are not being distracted by that opportunity.

Competition is the most significant issue affecting the run length that SEO get at the market and the life of the royalties ensuing from sales. SEO are tackling this by having filed for patents which will prevent / delay competition entry. It is also clear that none of the potential competitors has the necessary base skills to make any impact in the near term. SEO have stated that they will take pricing action where necessary to prevent competition taking hold. But the real answer is in their strategy for rolling the product out with selected partners that will optimise speed of market penetration. Its like that war game we use to play when I was young, before most of your times(!), where they hold the key territories and the key pieces. So don't under-estimate the SEO potential - that's the main danger as one's own position could then not be sufficiently overweight.

So whither the sp. Chart is begining to suggest a channel between 25p and 28.5p. Two steps of a second leg to 30p have been taken, plus a brief intra-day
jimup to over 30p. So reasonable to expect some sideways movement in a narrowing channel for a while. Could break out with more rumour but that would be of a frothy nature with the sp settling back. I believe ASDA to be in the price plus some volume from the US. What could really break the price N is the nature of a US deal. This comes back to the fundamentals and the discussion re gradient of volume growth. My conclusion is that, whilst ASDA is in the sp, it also provides support, probably around 25p. Wal-Mart, or other major US deals, are not in the sp if it leads to an upgrade of forecasts from the relatively cautious ones on the table at the moment.

Eric