Thought it about time we had a separate thread for currency plays.

Charts Currently Removed - New Ones To Follow Soon

Good Reading If You Like FX
http://www.mizuhobank.com/fin_info/exchange.html

July 4 (Reuters) - The dollar struggled to make more headway on Friday after a jump in U.S. job creation left stock markets in optimistic mood but did not convince traders it would be a trigger for the U.S. Federal Reserve to move toward higher interest rates. Sterling, not for the first time in recent months the main weekly winner on major currency markets, was back on the verge of almost six-year highs against the dollar. The dollar's failure to launch has been the big disappointment on currency markets this year. Solid U.S. jobs numbers for the fifth month running backed the analysts who have begun again to predict it may take off in the coming months. Against that, the euro continues to be backed by inflows of cash into European bond and stock markets and also by talk in the market of buying by Asian central banks recycling the dollar reserves they are accumulating into other currencies. After a half-cent swing after the jobs numbers on Thursday ID:nLNS3IEAIF , the dollar was just over 0.1 percent higher against the euro on Friday. EUR=EBS "You're getting this sort of muted reaction maybe because no-one is that convinced these numbers will really change the Fed's outlook," said Daragh Maher, a strategist with HSBC in London. "It played reasonably well yesterday as a dollar positive, but the scale of the move has not been so big. It has gained, just not that much." Maher drew parallels with the recent play on sterling, driven higher by investors' conviction that strong UK economic numbers would eventually prompt the Bank of England to shift to a more hawkish tone on interest rates. That seems to have happened in the past month, with Governor Mark Carney and colleagues hinting that the bank could even raise rates for the first time before the end of the year. Fed chief Janet Yellen, however, for now has offered little sign of heading in the same direction. "It seems as though people are slightly more reluctant to take on the Fed in the way we saw with the Bank of England," Maher said. "But maybe there comes a tipping point with data like this where the message has to change." CROWN DOWN After some early sales of euro in European time, the dollar touched its highest in a week at $1.3587 per euro. Against a trade-weighted basket of currencies .DXY it was last at 80.279, having climbed as far as 80.315 after the jobs numbers. Against the yen, it hovered near a two-week high at 102.06 JPY= . It was up 0.7 percent so far this week, on track for its best performance in 2-1/2 months. The Swedish crown crashed 2 full percentage points in value on Thursday after the country's central bank slashed its interest rates by a half point to just 0.25 percent and gave a dim outlook on growth that hinted more might be in the pipeline. Poor industrial output numbers added to concerns about the prospect of deflation in Sweden and prodded the crown a further 0.3 percent lower on Friday. "The Riksbank acted decisively against Swedish deflation risks yesterday (but) given the zero lower bound, the Swedish krona needs to weaken a lot further," said Alvin Tan, a strategist with French bank Societe Generale in London. "Despite the recent fall in the crown, it remains too high in trade-weighted terms, whether in real or nominal terms. The Riksbank needs a weaker krona, and it has historically been willing to pursue unconventional policies in extremis."

LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - Sterling edged down on Monday as traders continued to be cautious over events in Ukraine and Gaza and as data added to a sense that Britain's economic recovery might be coming off the boil. Numbers released on Monday showed British consumer confidence dipped for the first time in 2014 in June, with spending on gas and electricity around 2.5 percent lower than a year ago. ID:nL6N0PT4ID Separate data showed asking prices for British houses had fallen for the first time this year. ID:nL6N0PT31L Concerned about Ukraine and Gaza, investors have pulled money out of sterling, putting it instead into traditionally safer currencies such as the yen, Swiss franc and the dollar. Sterling was down 0.1 percent against the dollar at $1.7075, over a cent lower than last week's near six-year high of $1.7192 GBP=D4 . "It doesn't seem very comfortable at $1.71 and we've seen it fall off quite sharply, but I think that's more about a slight dollar move," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com. "Also I think we're a bit risk-off," Brooks said. Against the euro, the pound was flat 79.20 pence EURGBP=D4 . Traders are awaiting minutes on Wednesday from the latest meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee for any signs of when a first interest rate hike in seven years might happen. The market is pricing in a slight chance that will come in November GBPOIS=ICAP . Data last week showed UK inflation in June at a higher-than-expected 1.9 percent, just shy of the BoE's 2 percent target, prompting investors to increase bets that the rate rise will come before the end of the year. But some traders said that despite that expectation, there were a number of risks that could weigh on sterling and could inject the market with a dose of a volatility. "Tailwinds from BoE hikes may not be enough to offset growing downside risks (for sterling). Investor concerns about the Scottish referendum in September, general elections next May and a potential ... "Brexit" (Britain leaving the European Union) could ... fuel FX implied volatility," analysts from Citigroup said in a research note.

Debating a EUR/GBP long position..

Bit easier to see with the Tenkan-sen in yellow.

Shortie, I note you created this thread. Did you leave out the Euro sign
in the heading because your keyboard, like mine, doesn't have the Euro key?

Its on number 4 along the top, I couldn't work out if it was 'shift', 'ctrl', 'alt' and the number to get it or a combination and just gave up in the end.

EUR/GBP looking overbought on the 5 following a bounce off 1.27

Its CTRL, ALT 4 €

The nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates at 0.5%, as expected.

They agreed that while "employment had continued to increase robustly... wage growth had been surprisingly weak".

Wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to a record low 0.7% in the three months to May.

The committee also said there might be a "modest slowing in output growth" in the second half of the year.

The minutes read: "There were early signs that global growth was weakening, and an unexpected increase in interest rates when real wages were not yet rising could... destabilise the recovery.

"The committee agreed that no increase was warranted at this meeting, although for some members the decision had become more balanced in the past few months than earlier in the year".

€€€€€€€€€€€ cheers Skinny

£ and € after BoE minutes.

Euroforecast

€ new lows

Could become interesting if it breaks support..

Gone Short.

$ gains

Nicely in the money, sold at 1.68798 and currently at 1.68603..

Approaching the upper trend line of the range, one to watch for a reversal now.

$ v Y today