How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

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Scrip

I would greatly appreciate you posting up on here if you see any interesting Betfair stuff, which you think might be of interest.

I see Kerry is drawing more and more level with Bush

My position with this bet at the moment is:

Republicans: -123.00 (Currently: Back 1.87 / Lay 1.88)
Democrats: +216.88 (Currently: Back 2.14 / Lay 2.16)

I can back the Republicans for my full potential loss amount and create a better hedge today than I could have done yesterday, should the Republicans end up winning. The quandary with doing this is that the Democrat chance of winning trend is strengthening and so further justifying my original position.

It's OK hedging your bets but in doing so, it makes me want to find yet another bet, and I would then want to do yet another hedge on the new bet - IYSWIM?

I don't really want to become addicted to it, I suppose.

Can someone else see what I'm trying to say?

Scrip,

Are you limiting the numbers on the day or what is the capacity of the room?

Doc, As a rule I generally lay off winning positions but I always go in heavily on that expectation. The problem you tend to find is that the result could swing against you just when you are feeling comfertable with the prospect of winning some decent money turning a decent profit into a loss or no gain. I had to learn the hard way several times!!

I think there is a lot to be said from a sanity viewpoint of booking regular profits. Gives you a warm feeling and more confidence.

I did eventually study what effect laying off or not has on your P&L long term. Longer term it actually makes little difference if you are a regular user and have a clearly defined staking strategy.

Harlosh, Not sure on the capacity of the room but I wouldn't want too many people there else it gets a little dilutive. I like to be interactive with the attendees.

An interesting and favourable scenario occured with the football this evening so despite promising to have a quiet evening I couldn't resist nipping in for a piece of the action. Around 2.34m traded just on this match (Not me, the market!!). I'll talk about this match specifically during the course as it was a good example of one particular strategy. Screen image was taken about 4-5 mins before the end of the match.

Utterly phenominal!

What did you do?

Harlosh

let me know if your planning to attend and ill give u a lift

Fundy,

As I don't drive, I am extremely grateful.

I'll book my place.

Regards

I have positions running on the Premiership matches this afternoon.

Scenarios

Charlton Vs Middlesbrough
Any result +80

Fulham Vs Tottenham
Fulham or Draw +70/60, Tottenham -230 (Whoops, Made a of mess of this!!)

Pompey Vs Man U
Min of 50 max of 80 if Portsmouth win

West Brom Vs Chelsea
300 if Chelsea win - Zero any other result

Arsenal Vs Southampton
250 if Arsenal win - Looking to trade out for reduced win on Arsenal. Arsenal just missed a penalty!!

Arsenal looking the only fly in the ointment

Pompy beeting Man Utd, west Brom back to 1-2

Will hold onto the Arsenal position but trade out for a neutral result on a draw. Downside of this is a loss if Southampton sneak a winner.

Arsenal goal, Will trade out now!!

Out for 226.90 if Arsenal win or Draw. Finished for the afternoon. Will take the kids swimming now.

Scrip, if you are looking to reduce risk by greening up before the end of the event then you are looking to open a position and then take the profit when the odds change in your favour. That much I understand.

But on a horse race for example, some odds widen and some shorten in the time leading up to the start of the race. So how do you decide which way the odds will move if you don't know anything about the horse, or the event? Do you watch for a change in the odds and then try and catch the trend? Or is there some other signal you look for in the price movement?

Get on the phone and vote for Verity in X Factor. For tonights elimination she is my only loser, I win on the all the others.

Stitched up by Sharon Osbourne

Still Sceptical:
I get stuff like this through the post every day. Today included.
Show me the losers not just the..... etc.
I get the feeling BETFAIR are going to have the old coffers plumped by a few mugs asap
Scrip:Like your posts by the way.Not Convinced/nor happy about any of this.245 +VAT.Id convince you i could walk on water for that......Actually i wouldn`t charge.then im a mug:-)

Iain,

I think your right to be sceptical. I thought about this a lot before I decided I would give it a go. Scrip's a statistical wizard so it might not work for a mathemtical numpty like me as it does for him.
Scrip has a reputation to protect I would suggest, so given that and the fact that it's in Manchester for a change, I'm willing to give it a try.
Why not give it a try yourself. It would be good to meet you.

Regards
Harlosh