Dear all,

In a moment of madness went long on MONI following Hammer on Friday on basis most beaten up stocks last to rally in extended bull run.

MONI has dropped from 1999/2000 high of 14.00 say or 1400p, FTSE Closed Friday 3952.60, reached high 6950.60 on 30th December 1999, Marconi Corporation starts 19th May 2003, presentations to analysts tomorrow 7th May 2003.

Approx 2003 low 1.13p, recent highs approx 2.50p

Hammer on Friday roughly 0.01p head ie very bullish 1.56p/1.55p with tail to 1.35p approx, needs to close above 1.50p/1.51p today IMHO to double hammer 1.55p/1.36p with high 1.58p, mid low 1.38p

On following logic I think MONI could go to 4.00p (3.98p) if break of 2.50p confirms

UKX C 02.05.2003 3952.60/6950.60 (UKX H 30.12.1999)x 1400p x 0.005 (0.50% post D4E)=3.98p



Views/opinions bull/bear please, I am long thinking could be biggest winner of May 2003 assuming the city are going to ramp the hell out of it when they own 99.50% of the company post D4E

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

LONDON (AFX) - Senior executives of troubled telecom equipment maker Marconi
PLC are set to go on a major charm offensive with investors on May 7 ahead of
the planned listing of Marconi Corp shares on May 19.
Marconi expects the UK and US courts to approve its huge debt rescheduling
plan in about 12 days time, enabling Marconi shares to start trading on May 19.
The company will tell investors that Marconi Corp's balance sheet bears
little resemblance to the old Marconi PLC.
As of Dec 31, 2002 Marconi Corp had net debt of 184 mln, gross debt of 788
mln and cash of 602 mln stg. Marconi PLC had net debt of some 3 bln stg and
gross debt of 4 bln.
Senior executives will also set out the strategy, products and services of
Marconi Corp.
Marconi's rescue plan, needed to avoid insolvency, involves a 4 bln stg
debt-for-equity swap with creditors, which will cede them 99.5 pct of the
company.
Under the terms of the proposed scheme creditors will also receive 340 mln
stg in cash. And as well as shares in the new company, to be renamed Marconi
Corp, they will also get a pro-rata share-out of loan notes.
tf/jc

Where is the line in the sand Keith ?

Ainsoph/Dick et al,

I closed my trade at an appalling loss this morning, just could not ignore the reality of the post D4E market cap, I would like to thank you all on this thread for your input, I am confident this loss would have got worse, and it is a salient lesson in the application of stop losses on break downs of hammer signatures.

Feeling very bruised by the experience, but believe I have done the right thing.

Now need to move forwards and find something to get my money back, preferably something that is realistically undervalued.

Once again thanks for your input.

Cheers

Ash

Hi Ash ....... you are probably right to close. We cannot win them all and must admit the valuation on these always looked a little strange



ains


an article in the Telegraph reports: the shares fell 0.12 to 1.01p as traders expect the restructured company to trade at between 20p to 60p when new shares in Marconi Corporation are listed on Monday 19 May. The new shares were trading at 50p in the grey market on Monday. However, spread betting firm Financial Spreads predicted the shares will close at between 32p and 34p on the first day of trading. Senior Trader Jim Morrison said: "We do not think the outlook for Marconi is particularly good."

just wondering if there may be a buying opportunity before the close


16 May 2003, This Is Money

EALING in Marconi shares will cease at the close of trading, bringing the curtain down on two years of misery for shareholders in the telecoms equipment group.




New shares in Marconi Corporation begin trading on Monday after a US bankruptcy court gave the green light for its life-saving financial restructuring. More than one billion new shares will be issued, mainly to creditors owed money when Marconi's business collapsed.

Existing shareholders have been left with virtually nothing after seeing their stake diluted to less than 1%. They will get one new share for every 559 they currently own.

City bookmaker Financial Spreads is quoting a starting price of 46p to 48p in the new shares. The current Marconi shares were trading at 0.65p, from a peak of 1250p in September 2000.

Marconi's transformation into a telecoms equipment maker under former chief Lord Simpson of Dunkeld was the key element in the destruction of shareholder value. It ran up billions of pounds of debts in an acquisition spree at the height of the telecoms boom.

When the telecoms downturn hit, Marconi was forced to slash thousands of jobs and sell non-core businesses. Its shares halved in one day in July 2001 following a botched profits warning.


2003 Associated Newspapers Ltd.

Interesting day with massive swings - thought there might be and dipped a little toe in and then out .... might have another go later


ains