The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Tokyo, that was a good bit of posting, saying what all of us want to say. I am currently still holding 100% and hope to continue doing so, so keep it up! My current employment contract runs out on the 29th October, so i hope it hits the big time before then!!!!

Out of interest what are your average purchase prices, mine's 110p after an unfortunate incident last week with a certain late buy order...

Mine is 37.5p, sold half at 152.5p to hedge my bet and now waitng for the contract decision.

OK everyone, yesterday I received an e-mail from David Horgan, but I needed his permission first to post it, as it pretty much confirms that the tenders are in the bag, if you can read between the lines, he has just sent an e-mail giving his permission, as he feels posting this on the BB's may stop all the phone calls, please feel to get PET to confirm this is real, then STOP bothering them!!!!!

this e-mail is incredibly exciting!

Reading between the lines, I can only say that the Petrel team are obviously
negotiating a risk sharing agreement in Dublin. The comment about the
Ministry being stretched is also significant.

This e-mail gives the flavour of a man who's bursting with excitement,
and is desperate to share his good news.

sorry I couldn't share this sooner, but had to check it wouldn't harm PET or break any rules first.

Tokyo

RE: Contact Petrel Resources : slides 2004
Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 13:11:46 +0100
From: "David Horgan" dhorgan@cooleywhiskey.com
To: email removed



Given regulatory rules, I probably shouldn't talk to individuals about such
questions, but this is my personal opinion:
It is fair to estimate the discounted, risked value of Block 6, Iraqi
western desert at 60p per share. It could be much higher or lower.
The value of the development contracts depends on:
1. the margin of the development contracts themselves and
2. the probability of converting such contracts / arrangements to
risk-sharing arrangements.

The fair discounted, risked value of each contract is about 30p per share -
though it does depend on the exact terms any any cost overruns.

However, the big prize is landing a risk-sharing deal. This really could
be worth anything:
a. the structures identified at depth are large and oil prone.
b. exploration risks are low (the best place to find oil is in an
oilfield).
c. the Iraqi Ministry of Oil is over-stretched and needs such arrangements
as soon as legally possible.

Any reasonable terms (say 30% production sharing) could literally be worth
billions given the size of structure and relatively fast time to develop
giving existing infrastructure. Petrel has few shares in issue (only 66m
fully diluted).

So the markets are not necessarily irrationally exuberant on seeing Petrel
as huge potential, albeit with high political risk.

David Horgan
MD
Petrel

Still holding 100% and will continue to do so until a decision is reached. Avg. price 1.06. Thanks for the positive insights and feedback guys.I know deepdown you are right,but sometimes it's helpful to be reminded. S

hope that makes you all feel better

Tokyo

My sentiments exactly sandrew64, oh and thanks a lot Tokyo. I think everyone should stop phoning and let him sign some goddamn deals!!

Tokyo can i have permission from you to help spread the news?! If thats what DH wanted!

tokyo,
how the hell did you get DH to say so much!!!,how many bottles of saki did you promise him,brilliant answer though.
well done,
dexter

107606 - yeah go for it

dexter01 - as you have been with me for a while on this BB I wanted to share the info with you this morning, but didn't have your e-mail we should have swapped those long ago

enjoy the ride

Tokyo

Cheers Tokyo!

tokyo.
whatever your inquisitorial modus, WELL DONE!! your lastest posting DH e-mail have helped to calm my nerves if not the markets. Great stuff
scottie7

Why is it going down today - now 100p.

hlyeo98
Because they hav'nt read Tokyo's e-mail from DH. My suggestion, hold your nerve (and mine)and get ready to watch them climb throughout OCT.

scottie7

hlyeo98:

There has been no news from the company...the overall market is down....and until the company announces a deal of some sort the MM's can make their own price based on the level of 'buys' and 'sells'. Suggest you read Tokyo's earlier excellent posts, and take a view on where this SP is going! Like others I take the view that the base (underlying) story has not changed so plan to keep, and in fact increase my own holding. It's entirely up to you, and the level of risk you are prepared to take.

thanks for your advice, john and scottie

Bought @159.75 and still holding because simply I have lost that much on paper I have to let it ride. The simplest form of volitility is supply and demand and yesterdays/todays drop do not equate to the figures traded. The MMs are doing a shake but also we have to contend with a massive overbought situation. I bought in because of expected news and here I stay.In the meantime I have applied for a job stacking shelves at Tesco.z

Hi
yes it is true the MM's are controlling the price, it stands to reason , in their eyes, that the price stays at a discount so not to over expose themselves but remain ready when the rocket sets off, which they
surely will. They, the MMs, have been very busy hedging for the past week. In my eyes the buy/sell ratio has little bearing on the price or we would be looking at a flat and not the 10+% downside,showing on my screen.
scottie

yes it is true the MM's are controlling the price

who and what is MM ??

can you tell me

MM = Market Makers.