This ones a heck of a specualive investment but it seems that the institutions are willing to stomp up the cash to back it in the long term.

Heres the latest news from Killik stocbrokers on the company..........

MEDICAL MARKETING Joint Venture

We recently highlighted Medical Marketing (MMG) as worthy of attention. The company, in which I have a personal share holding, has this morning announced the formation of a joint venture, Genvax, to develop a novel DNA vaccine platform technology.

Human trials have been underway since 2001 in areas such as Lymphoma and Myeloma but the technology has broad applications in cancer, viral and bacterial infections (hence the term platform). The technology works on boosting the immune system by teaching it to identify hard to recognise cancer proteins as foreign and destroy them. Early results from the 25 patient trial in lymphoma are encouraging and evaluation of the result is expected by March 2005. Successful results should mean big pharmaceutical groups will start to take financial and commercial interests around that time.

This looks to be the first of a series of announcements due from Medical Marketing as it has a range of predominantly cancer trials moving into the clinical stage. (news flow could push the price higher)

The stock has made good progress in recent sessions up to the mid-80p level where the company is valued at just under 40 million. ENDS.

Please DYOR

cheers GF.

mitzy

Thanks for that mitzy, I'll be able to sleep tonight, especially if I have too many Stella's in the Red Lion tonight. Is there such as thing as too many Stella's? Your the man.

LOL

MS

NO.

cheers GF

A bit of profit taking going on at the moment.

cheers GF.

No worries I'm anticipating a decent press coverage this weekend and about time you may say..the MMI story is impulsive and this is only the beginning..there is no doubt the sp will be 200p in 2 weeks time.

If it going to be 2 quid in two weeks time Mitzy, shouldny you be upping your year end figure?, I totaly support you but I think your being a bit miserly saying it will only hit 3 quid by the year end, Im sure you said this, but could be wrong and would love to be proved wrong.

cheers GF.

Yes I reckon a figure of 350p in a year from now but the 200p will be due around the time of the Genvax update... so the trading range is between 200p andv350p going forward..cheers.

Thanks for the update Mitzy , I think your being rather conservative, but Ill take those figure anyday.

cheers GF.

Up this morning on decent volume but looks like the mms by a cobination of a large spread and failure to rise the price as in the past are holding this one back for the 18th.

cheers GF.

All very quiet on this one today I expect everyone is waiting for the update on the 18th inst..

Yes Mitzy that amount of buy volume today would have probably moved this one up 10p a fortnight ago.

cheers GF.

"there is no doubt the sp will be 200p in 2 weeks time" (mitzy).

If there was no doubt, it would be there already.
If Genvax passes Phase 2 you still only have a 30% chance that the drug will get to market.
MMG own only 50% of Genvax so if their target market is worth say $1bn (annual sales) and Genvax manages to get 10% (speculation) of that market, that puts MMG's % of sales at $50m but they will only get royalties as they will not manufacture or distribute. Say royalties at 25% of $50m = $12.5m annually.
Assuming we reach Phase III, we still only have a 30% chance of success.
This puts a current value on Genvax Follicular NHL vaccine in Phase III at $4.125M.
I have used approximate industry averages which vary from paper to paper so must be used as approximation.
Please feel free to question my calcs.

So how much is 4million PER ANNUM worth- say 40 million? Fair?

Good point. I think thats the usual valuation method (x 10).

My biggest variable is how big is the North American and European market in $.
Roche have a Follicular NHL drug (mabThera) which is quite new so no revenue figures but I think they hope to achieve $1bn sales annually.
If Genvax is that successful (1bn sales annually )and all the other figures remain, that puts current value at $41.25M rising to $125M if we reach market.
Fair value at 412.5M in P3 or 1.25Bn in market.

Pete 168 some valuable imput here from you and S101.

I assumed myself and I think others did that Mitzy was talking when he said 200p in two weeks that he was very confident that the drug would pass the Phase 2 trial. He as said elsewhere Like I have that its the flip of a coin a 50/50 chance, it will either pass or fail. If it passes and he seems very confident and I would say his track record so far on this investment as been 100% I feel he could be right on his assesment of the share price, we will see come the 18th.

cheers GF.

There are levels of success.
Is it as good as current best drug?
Is it 10% better than current best drug?
Is it 50% better than current best drug?

Alot of variables to take in which will have a huge influence over valuation of Genvax.
Of course if it is alot better than current best drug, as it is a platform technology, you have the other two vaccines which are in trials for prostate and colon cancer followed by others.
Lets hope for good news on the 18th.

Good post s Pete..

So if the NHL trials are a modest success then there must be some value to Genvax which in my estimation has been ignored by the market so far.I have every confidence that the results will be successful and that this time around the sp will rise to 200p level.And hopefully this will be just the start of a pipeline of good news from the other cancer vaccines.
Then there is Ruthenium which by all accounts is a safer and more efficient drug than the original platinum ones and could possibly treat the most aggresive forms of cancer which are not treatable currently.

Ruthenium is harder to value.
Platinum market at its peak was worth $6bn annually.
If Ruthenium is as good, and say they receive 20% royalties, we are looking at $1.2Bn revenue annually.
I think fair value on a drug x5 is more appropriate based on patent expiry 20 years away and possible better drugs coming through.
Based on fair value x5 would equate to a fair value of $6bn.
Of course we need to discount for failure rate because we have not started Phase II.
Discount of 85% = $900M fair value.

Drug in Phase II, fair value of $900M
Drug in Phase III sees fair value at $1.8bn
Drug in Market sees fair value at $6bn

These calcs are not including the >10% annual growth in cancer drug market.
They do assume Ruthenium will target as many cancers as platinum drugs.
Surely the numbers cannot be right, Can they?

Pete168

Excellents posts. Well done and keep them coming.

MS

hi mitzy :)

Hi mate....how you doing...?
ps Scsw out this Saturday...