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Interesting collection

Just how much is "investor demand" in the... big pie... of gold demand
- source - world gold council
(suprised me)





Whilst the above youT - mentions BofE supplying a possible 1,300 tons into the market - by way of leasing other peeps gold.

The talking heads - credit punters throwing in the towel with GLD - for origins of meeting the huge physical demand as a supplement to comex supply.

Lets check how much GLD has contributed to that theory







Or looked at another way - GLD outflows as a proportion of - total demand






Or how about "JUST" what GLD's outflows would contribute to .....ONLY what goes through the
- Shanghai gold exchange





Not looking so good on the hymme sheet song
- the demand is being met to a large degree - by gold given up by GLD investors


In fact to put it in context - GLD outflow -vs-comex outflow, for example






I personally connect those dots

- that comex invent-ory is crashing
- GLD is not suppling as much as the talking heads - suggest...towards demand
- there is a lot of missing gold - not accounted for as being supplied by Comex inventory, plus GLD
(even if we accounted for newly mined gold - indications above are that there would still be a "shortfall of supply against demand)

And if - the LBMA market is as active as the more visible market (who seem to be running on fumes)

- then the REALLY BIG ....deals "of volume" which pass thro' the LBMA....must be depleting their Invent-ory by "really big" multiples too as compared to the visible market.....and must have run out of fumes

- and be running on perhaps
- 1,300 tons and counting...and counting
- BofE custody gold leased into the market
- & Residing in Hedge Fund Manager Kaye's - underground Shanghai vault
- and....Mrs Singh & Mrs Li's necks
- with little prospect of being "physically" returned at the end of the gold lease.

Nice work Gaz - In an easy to read and digest format. Cheers!

Good luck at the pub quiz.

I found this site recently that aids in improving cognitive skills, I must say after 5 weeks I have noticed a marked improvemnet in spacial awareness, brain speed and other mental attributes. Just thought it may help your quiz nights ))

http://www.lumosity.com/app/v4/dashboard

S.

$Sivers 'Harami' (Small bodied candle within the lower section of the previous candle) looks to be threatened by a lower close today (the last day of the month). A lot will depend on the FOMC meeting and what jaw-boning the Bernank does with regard to QE...



Maybe we get another tail below the trendline?...



S.

Sahara - thanks for the link - added to my to-do list, as I need to register (to do's - are more a short novel than a list).

Charts - Still look as tho' we are on the birth of a trend. Wonder how long the labour pains will continue. Hopefully when the labour waters break
- it will be bulls rushing to buy surf board to ride the tidal wave of short covering
- rather than buying... floatation aids

In the famous paraphrase style of "Legendary Louise Yamada" - it could be up, it could be down, we may remain range bound, or drift sideways for a while. There could be some volatility too along the way too.
If only you could bet... that she was right :o)

Talking of bets - Think I may have done a boo boo son wise on that aspect.

He mentioned last night that he might buy a grands worth of silver coins, excited at the prospect of £500 profit if silver went to $30. Discussed the merits of holding some tangible money to get thro' any total SHTF scenario,
- and cautioned him on manipulation, buy sell spreads, vat etc etc

Casually mentioned as a throw away remark as he was leaving - if he felt silver was going to £30 before the end of the year, & he bought some Dec call options for around $27 it would cost say £3/400 for about 20,000 ish and a $30 expiry would kick out around $60,000.

After he had gone...regretted saying it...without adding a lot more.
- somehow think the $60,000 will have got the brain cells ticking & I will be getting a text £500.... bet placed !

If he loses - dad in the bad books
- and if it pays off - I will have a son perhaps deluded that he is gifted...and ...on that one ...many early win new traders can testify to the fact ...the rest... is often history (as was their former nice house :o)

Just something to keep your eye on


70 Straight Days: Treasury Says Debt Stuck at Exactly $16,699,396,000,000

According to the Daily Treasury Statement for July 26, which the Treasury released this afternoon, the federal debt has been stuck at exactly $16,699,396,000,000.00 for 70 straight days.

That is approximately $25 million below the legal limit of $16,699,421,095,673.60 that Congress has imposed on the debt.

The value of U.S. Treasury debt instruments circulating in the public has increased $53.267 billion since May 17--even though the Treasury says the debt has remained exactly at $16,699,396,000,000.00 during that time.

How could the value of extant U.S. Treasury securities increase by $53.267 billion during a 70-day period when the federal government’s debt subject to the legal limit has remained constant at $16,699,396,000,000.00—just $25 million below the legal limit?


http://cnsnews.com/news/article/70-straight-days-treasury-says-debt-stuck-exactly-1669939600000000

Another country bans import of gold

Countering devaluation: Pakistan government slaps temporary ban on gold imports

http://tribune.com.pk/story/584352/countering-devaluation-govt-slaps-temporary-ban-on-gold-import/

Thanks to Alasdair Macleod we found out about the 1200 tons of gold that has vanished.


Bank of England refuses comment on huge discrepancy in custodial gold reports

http://www.gata.org/node/12859

Maybe this demonstrates
- how many people can get thro the exit ....in a market...
- short squeeze

Right click picture
- click on.. open in new window
- short gif should start automatically
- lol

Talking of short squeezes (this is getting like links in the BBC news)

Our man in Singapore - Hedge fund manager Kaye

“The short interest in GLD right now is incredibly high.
- It’s roughly 30 million shares,
- and the key point here is that this is taking place while the shareholder count keeps contracting.
- The shareholder count is down to just over 300 million shares,
- so the short interest is roughly 10%.

So in my speak
- the bullion banks are now net short almost 10% of GLD.
- That’s several billion dollars worth of gold.
- and it's 30 MILLION - of GLD shares....effectively double counted - so 30 million shares
- not backed by the physical gold.

And in my mind begs the question
- if the talking heads are correct that punters - are throwing in the towel hand over fist in GLD
- then why......are they having to....borrow GLD shares

My suspicion - borrow - the 10 million GLD shares
- redeem them for.... physical
(The shareholder count keeps contracting because the physical gold keeps getting redeemed)
-- and "hope" you can return it,.... some time later
(when the borrowed shares - need to be returned)

Will that give rise to the same type of answer that the Germans got
- when they asked the Federal Reserve to send Germany’s gold back to them,
- which is essentially,..... ‘You can’t have it,
- but we will give you .....
- a very, very tiny portion of the gold you are... supposed... to have stored with us,
- and it will take... 7 years for you to get it.

.......................................................................................................................


So whist circumstantial m'lud
- Chavez asked for his gold
- The boys liberated Libya's Gold
(apparently Gaddafi had imprisoned it - without charge or trial)
- The FEDy tells Germany it can't have it's own gold back - but they will air mail an oz at a time over 7 years
- ABN Amro defaults on paying out punters allocated gold - and switches to fiat settlement
- Von Greyez when trying to move client gold out of Swiss banks - is given every excuse under the sun - "sorry you can only have XXX Tons - due to money laundering ..restrictions" .....being a real classic
- He also mentions court gagging orders re - class actions in the courts - to recover allocated deposits
- The Indian Gov - blocks gold imports - unless (it's still a bit woolly on the details)...... x amount is retained for re-export (traders are struggling to get the woolly rules clarified....causing a log jam)
- The B of E loses 1,300 tons of - custody gold in it's new online app (into the market :o)
- refiners working 24/7 and still cite long delivery times
- Kaye citing his smelters sourcing supplies from anywhere...including central banks
- Comex registered and eligible invent-ory falling off a cliff
- the Morgue apparently not making its may deliveries - until July
- The LBMA etending delivery time by 66% (Previously 3 days...now 5 days)
- and now....
10 million GLD shares being...borrowed (& no doubt redeemed into physical then into the market)
- and that's just what springs to mind !!

Update - as per Snurkles link - Pakistan now bans import of gold

So obviously
- as the talking heads confirm - a surfeit in Gold supplies
- clearly in evidence......hence the fall in the price

Yep Gaz, we've been living in a topsy turvy world for awhile.
No doubt it will end at some stage.... soon

Good posts Sir!!

Here's Jeff Nielson's latest. Making good sense once again

London Metals-Fraud Revealed

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/intl-commentary/26291-london-metals-fraud-revealed

Gaz - Yamadas charts lol!!

Options are a bewilderment to me. IO think its cos I always get the Theta's wrong ;-( Also time decay can work against you more than you may have envisaged. Probly better to write option at least you end up with the premium. Your son may have more nouse than you perhaps credit him with, but if not and he does take up thew wager and wins then as you say may not e the best outcome after-all.

|Talking of Backwardation...'Let me emphasize that I think this should be regarded as rot.' ie 'the rot in the monetary system has increased.' but Basis curve is still positive....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1588782-what-drives-negative-gofo-and-temporary-gold-backwardation

S.

Snurkle
Interesting that Pakistan has placed a "temporary" ban on import of gold (with an Aug review)
- temporary often becomes actual or quasi...permanent
- Like India - may drive further demand towards silver

And that's another interesting one re US debt

If the debt had increased by even $30 million
- at any time during those 70 days,
- it would have exceeded the statutory limit.
But, according to the Treasury, the debt did not do that. Instead, it remained precisely $16,699,396,000,000.00.

As of July 26, according to the latest Treasury statement, the Treasury had already redeemed approximately $6,128,368,000,000.00 in bills, notes and bonds during this fiscal year.
- But, at the same time, according to the statement, the Treasury had sold an additional $6,759,148,000,000.00 bills, note and bonds-
- for a net increase of $630,780,000,000.00 for the year.

(so they they 30 million limit left - and blown 630 billion - although slightly confused when the article states***....
Thus, the value of U.S. Treasury debt instruments circulating in the public has increased ......$53.267*** billion)

On the subject of Gov't data
- I think it was one of Martin Armstrons researchers that asked him to check her finding, that
- US GDP was calculated using Gov't expenditure plus the population income
- when Armstrong queried - that Gov't employees salaries were being - double counted
- he got a reply that ....it was adjusted back out the figures
- when he asked where and how.....silence

Miners have lost the blue line support and are heading to the low of the blue arrow perhaps, although the downtrend channel has some support in here, which eerily coincides with lateral support...



S.

Bill Holter's latest. Certainly one that made me chill out about stuff a bit more.

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/shootout-at-the-white-hat-corral

Sahara - all trading (bar the very basics) bewilders me - it's bordering on advanced physics .

I suppose an alternative view of the basis curve could be - if ..."the system" makes it past Dec
- enough people maybe think ....things will revert to nearer normal (in the topsy turvy sense of normal)
- after all - I am sure there are many traders,... just one notch up from 24/7 sky sports intelligence :o)

1 - If it is not a good report..... spin it so it is.
2 - if that stops working - change the calculation
3 - when all else fails - just lie
(are we at a 2/3 or just a full 3)

Jim Sinclair

Jim Sinclair opines on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’
- changes to GDP calculation announced Wednesday,
- which will add 3% to .....official US GDP
(or equivalent of adding .....an economy approximately the size of Belgium)
by counting research, development, and copyrights as part of the GDP calculation for the first time.

Apparently the only way to delay recognition of the latest recession (for 2 quarters perhaps?) among the mainstream is to blatantly manipulate the calculation by a whopping 3%.

We are carrying these major changes.... all the way back in time
– which for us means to..... 1929
– so we are essentially..... rewriting economic history,”
(Brent Moulton, who manages the national accounts at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, told the Financial Times)

Gaz - While we are awaiting the month end prints on miners and metals, what do you makwe of the devastating decline of the humble bee?

I read that over 70% of the main crop species in which we obtain 90% of our food are dependant upon these fast disappearing fastisous workers. And all because of pesticides?/

I was Shocked!! to read of over 10million beehives that have been wiped out in the last six years alone. Not knowing how many bees are in the average hive I would confidently say over a 100million bees have VANISHED!!

Wha with all the other issues of weather, earthquakes, wars, disease, warned about in scripture perhaps 'the terrible arrows of famine' will be the most devastating?/...

‘So it shall be a reproach, a taunt, a lesson, and an astonishment to the nations that are all around you, when I execute judgments among you in anger and in fury and in furious rebukes. I, the Lord, have spoken. When I send against them the terrible arrows of famine which shall be for destruction, which I will send to destroy you, I will increase the famine upon you and cut off your supply of bread. So I will send against you famine and wild beasts, and they will bereave you. Pestilence and blood shall pass through you, and I will bring the sword against you. I, the Lord, have spoken.’ Ezekiel 5:15-17

'Watch therefore, and pray always, that you may be accounted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass, and to stand before the Son of man.' Luke 21-36

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jul/30/buzzfeeds-bees-colony-collapse-disorder

S.

Snurkle -
Yes - I think we have all seen Holter style - bitching, back biting, general critisism of the poster not the content, trolls and whingers
- just on the 2 RU..AG/AU threads on ADVFN
- In fact - on RUau - at one stage Sahara seemed to have a whole posse of trolls, some of whom I am sure spent sleepless nights trying to find some tiny thing to launch
- what I can only describe as - an attack
(some of whom seemed quite long established regulars).

Strange effect that some people get, when they are so tightly wound up that - they and only they are right.

Mind you I became a little curt with McBeany - on his unwavering intransigence in his opinion in.. insisting
- "Who cares about JPM - what has JPM got to do with ...the price of silver...or the price of fish"

$Silver trying hard to get back into the safe zone...



S.