Oct. 23 - (Bloomberg)

Oil Falls a Second Day on Skepticism OPEC Will Make Output Cuts - By Mark Shenk


Crude oil fell for a second day on skepticism that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut production by as much as members pledged last week.

OPEC's reductions will be ``significantly less'' than agreed, amid doubts some members of the group will act at all, the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies said in a report today. OPEC, which pumps about 40 percent of the world's oil, said on Oct. 20 that members would collectively cut output by 1.2 million barrels a day to prop up prices.

``If OPEC is going to be an effective organization it will have to send a clear signal that it will follow through with these cuts,'' said Phil Flynn, vice president of risk management with Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``The Saudis are telling customers that they can expect less oil but we have yet to see any movement from the smaller OPEC members.''

Crude oil for December delivery fell 52 cents, or 0.9 percent, to close at $58.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are down 3 percent from a year ago. Prices have plunged 25 percent from the record of $78.40 a barrel reached July 14.

U.S. stocks surged, extending October's record-breaking rally, as falling oil prices bolstered speculation that consumer spending will sustain the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record, rising 122.79, or 1 percent, to 12,125.16 at 12:42 p.m. in New York.

CGES, which was founded by former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani, said OPEC's determination to reduce supply shows the organization is trying to defend a price of ``at least $55 a barrel for its basket of crude oil grades.'' The OPEC basket price stood at $54.56 on Oct. 19.



Saudi Exports

Saudi Arabia will cut shipments to Japan, its largest customer, in November for the first time in more than two years after last week's decision by OPEC's members. Supplies to Japanese refiners will be reduced as much as 8 percent below contractual volumes, refinery officials said.

``I'm surprised that OPEC is being given such a hard time,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``The news from Asia shows that the Saudis are on board, but doubts about other members remain.''

OPEC's Oct. 20 statement said 10 of its members, all except Iraq, would ``reduce production by an amount of 1.2 million barrels a day, from current production of about 27.5 million barrels a day, to 26.3 million barrels a day, effective 1st November 2006,'' adding that the decision would be subject to review at a Dec. 14 meeting in Abuja, Nigeria.



Reducing Shipments

``The Saudis immediately informed customers that they will reduce shipments and OPEC made it clear that they were open to a follow-up cut in December, which signals that they are serious about supporting prices,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``OPEC production cuts don't have an immediate effect on the U.S. market.''

Supplies climbed 2.9 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 20, from 335.6 million the prior week, according to the median of forecasts by 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly inventory report on Oct. 25.

Brent crude oil for December settlement fell 47 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $59.21 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures exchange, the lowest close since Oct. 12.

FT.com - By Chris Flood


Oil prices staged a modest rebound on Tuesday, helped by news that the Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation will cut crude exports by 5 per cent next month.

The reduction comes the United Arab Emirates implements the output cut announced last week by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Edward Meir of Man Financial said that for Opecs cutbacks to bite, the market would need to see a reduction in inventories or a resurgence in demand but neither appeared to be happening as yet .

ICE December Brent rose 35 cents to $59.56 a barrel while Nymex December West Texas Intermediate added 33 cents at $59.14 a barrel.

Francisco Blanch, commodity strategist at Merrill Lynch, said downside risks to oil prices were mounting as inventory levels were well above last year in both the US and Europe and spare production capacity (both Opec and non-Opec) was poised to expand significantly.

FT.com - October 31 2006

Oil falls as funds sell down exposure - By Kevin Morrison


Oil prices fell back below $60 a barrel, falling more than $2, on Monday after investment funds sold down their exposure before planned production cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries come into effect.

ICE Brent futures for December delivery dropped $2.03 to $59.05 a barrel in late afternoon trade in London. December West Texas Intermediate dropped $1.97 to $58.78 a barrel in early afternoon trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Kevin Blemkin, energy broker at Man Financial, said fund selling had caused oil prices to fall.

Funds were early sellers this morning, and when Brent and WTI fell through $60 is brought in more sellers as some key technical support levels were broken, Mr Blemkin said.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that speculators in the WTI contract had cut their long positions or bets on prices moving higher by more than 52,000 contracts, as more speculators betted on falling prices.

The fall in long positions came in spite of the pledge by Opec to cut exports. Saudi Arabia, the worlds biggest oil exporter, and the United Arab Emirates last week informed customers of supply cuts.

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg)

Oil Trades Below $59 After Plunging on U.S. Supply Forecasts - By Christian Schmollinger and Angela Macdonald-Smith


Crude oil traded below $59 a barrel after posting the biggest one-day decline in more than a year yesterday on forecasts that warm U.S. weather will curb demand and bolster stockpiles.

Higher-than-usual temperatures are expected in most of the U.S. from Nov. 6 until Nov. 12, the National Weather Service reported. U.S. crude inventories, already 12 percent above their 5 year average, probably rose 2.7 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

``Crude oil inventories in the U.S. and all over the world are sufficient,'' said Tetsu Emori, chief commodity strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures Ltd. in Tokyo. ``The oil price is losing momentum.''

Crude oil for December delivery traded at $58.42 a barrel, up 6 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:14 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract fell $2.39, or 3.9 percent, to $58.36, the biggest one- day decline since Aug. 17, 2005.

Prices have fallen 25 percent from a record $78.40 a barrel reached July 14 when fighting between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon raised the possibility of supply disruptions from the Middle East. Since then, rising global stockpiles and a calm U.S. hurricane season have eased concerns.

``You get a forecast for warmer weather and down prices come,'' said Rowan Menzies, a commodity market analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. ``The U.S. looks pretty well supplied as of today.'

In London, Brent crude oil for December settlement was up 5 cents to $58.73 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange at 1:19 p.m. Singapore time.



U.S. Stockpiles

U.S. crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly fell in the week ended Oct. 20 when the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the largest U.S. import terminal, shut because of bad weather. The port, which was closed for about 70 hours, caught up on imports in about two days.

U.S. stockpiles of crude oil, diesel, heating oil and gasoline in the week ended Oct. 20 were higher than the five- year average for the period, the Energy Department said last week.

The forecast for mild temperatures in the U.S. Northeast is delaying the expected rise in demand as the coldest winter weather period approaches, said Andrew Harrington, an industrials analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney.

``You'd be looking for late December-January to be the big cold period in the Northeast of the U.S. and we should start seeing some increase in demand heading into that period,'' Harrington said. ``It seems to be a bit slower in coming than usual. Some anticipation of that had been built in to the price and now we're seeing it being taken out again.''



OPEC Cuts

The decline in oil prices since mid-July prompted the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces about 40 percent of global supply, to agree to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels a day starting Nov. 1. OPEC ministers will review their cuts when they next meet on Dec. 14.

Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil producer, will definitely implement the 1.2 million barrel-a-day reduction in output that the group announced earlier this month, Khalid al-Falih, a senior vice president with state-run Saudi Aramco, said yesterday.

``There will be no delaying, no backpedaling,'' al-Falih said at a meeting with U.S. oil company officials in Washington.

Oil prices also fell yesterday because of waning concerns about the security of Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil terminal, Menzies said.

Naval forces from the U.S.-led coalition were sent to protect the terminal after the threat of a terrorist attack from the sea, reports said.

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg)

Crude Oil Falls After Report Shows Increase in U.S. Inventories - By Christian Schmollinger


Crude oil fell in New York after a government report showed increased supplies in the U.S., the world's largest energy consumer.

Crude inventories rose to 334.3 million barrels, leaving supplies 12 percent higher than the five-year average for the week, the Energy Department reported yesterday. Demand for heating oil, diesel and gasoline remained near two-month highs.

``We're still waiting for winter to kick in because that's when the market gets interesting again,'' said Gerard Burg, economist with National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. ``Until the demand for heating oil picks up, we're in a bit of lull period.''

Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as 26 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $58.45 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $58.47 at 1:44 p.m. Singapore time.

Brent crude oil for December settlement fell as much as 21 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $58.77 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures exchange. It traded 16 cents lower at $59.82 a barrel at 1:23 p.m. Singapore time.

U.S. oil inventories rose 1.9 million barrels, the department said. A gain of 2.6 million barrels was forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 14 analysts.

Supplies of gasoline and distillates fell more than expected. Distillate stockpiles, including heating oil and diesel, fell 2.72 million barrels to 141.3 million, 13 percent above the five- year average. Gasoline supplies declined 2.8 million barrels to 204.6 million, 2.3 percent more than average.

FT.com - November 9 2006

Oil rises as distillate stocks fall - By Kevin Morrison


Crude oil futures rose by more than $1 a barrel on Wednesday after a bigger-than-expected fall in US distillate inventories, which includes diesel and heating oil.

Prices were also helped by comments from Saudi Arabia suggesting the market remained oversupplied with crude in spite of the recent 1.2m barrel-a day cut by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The weekly US crude and petroleum product inventory data showed distillate fuel inventories dropped by 2.7m barrels, but are just above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

US crude inventories rose 400,000 barrels to 334.7m barrels, which is well above the upper end of the average range for the time of year. The report also said total petrol inventories declined by 600,000 barrels, but remain at the upper end of the five-year average range.

ICE December Brent added $1.01 to $59.49 a barrel in late London afternoon trade. December West Texas Intermediate gained 96 cents to $59.89 a barrel in early afternoon trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

US petroleum products also made large gains with the December Nymex Rbob gasoline contract gaining 4 cents to $1.5740 a gallon, and the December heating oil contract up 3.7 cents to $1.7180 a gallon.

Although the Opec cut only came into effect at the start of the month, US oil imports have already fallen, showing the global market is tightening. US crude oil imports averaged 9.8m barrels a day last week, down 306,000 from the previous week, and below the four-week average of 10m b/d.

can anyone tell me were i can get the price of oil from, the futures link on moneyam is all wrong....

Tonker, see the top of this thread. At the moment it is detailed as : LAST 59.59

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg)

Oil Falls the Most This Month After IEA Cuts Demand Forecast - By Mark Shenk


Crude oil fell the most this month after the International Energy Agency cut its demand forecast for the third consecutive month.

World oil demand this year will average 84.49 million barrels a day, 80,000 barrels a day less than estimated last month, the Paris-based agency said today. Slower growth in Chinese use of transport fuels, especially gasoline, was behind the revision, the IEA said. China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer, is still expected to drive growth this year and next.

``The IEA has cut its demand forecast for three months in a row, which could be the start of a trend,'' said Kyle Cooper, director of research at IAF Advisors in Houston. ``This is very different from 2004 and 2005 when we saw demand revised higher repeatedly. This may be evidence that these high prices are putting a lid on demand growth.''

Crude oil for December delivery fell $1.57, or 2.6 percent, to close at $59.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest decline since Oct. 30. Prices are up 0.8 percent this week and are 3.1 percent higher than a year ago. Futures have traded in a range of $56.55 to $61.79 for the past month.

Oil has plunged 24 percent from the record of $78.40 a barrel reached July 14 amid concern that fighting in Lebanon would spread through the Middle East, source of a third of the world's oil. Since then, the Lebanese cease fire, rising supplies and a calm Atlantic hurricane season have caused the price decline.



Demand Growth

World oil demand growth is expected to be 1.1 percent this year, less than the 1.2 percent in last month's report. Growth in 2007 annual demand was left unchanged at 1.7 percent, the IEA estimated. The agency was set up in 1974 to advise industrialized nations on energy policy.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces about 40 percent of the world's oil, will take less supply than it sought, the IEA said. The 11 members of OPEC, meeting on Oct. 20 in Qatar's capital Doha, said they would cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day starting Nov. 1, to check the decline in prices.

OPEC's crude oil production fell 340,000 barrels a day, or 1.1 percent, in October, to 29.37 million barrels a day, the IEA said. Between 600,000 to 900,000 barrels a day might be removed from the market as a result of last month's agreement, according to the agency.

``The problem with today's IEA report is the numbers we really want to see will be released roughly a month from now,'' said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., a New Canaan, Connecticut, energy consultant. ``We want to know how well they are abiding by the agreement.''

OPEC is next scheduled to meet in Abuja, Nigeria, on Dec. 14.



Warm Weather

Warm weather in the Northeast has reduced demand for heating oil in the region, which is responsible for 80 percent of U.S. consumption of the fuel. Home-heating use there will be 35 percent below normal through Nov. 17, said Weather Derivatives, a forecaster in Belton, Missouri.

``The market is still range bound,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``We are being pulled in two directions. The warm weather is bearish and the drop in product stockpiles is very bullish.''

U.S. diesel supplies dropped 2.92 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 3, the Energy Department reported on Nov. 8. Diesel inventories have plunged 12 percent in the past four weeks. Gasoline supplies slipped 584,000 barrels to 204 million last week, the report showed.

Brent crude oil for December settlement fell $1.61, or 2.6 percent, to close at $59.71 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures exchange.

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg)

Crude Oil Trades Near One-Year Low on Doubts About OPEC Cuts -
By Hector Forster and Nesa Subrahmaniyan


Oil, set for its biggest weekly decline since October 2005, traded near a one-year low on speculation OPEC will exceed its production target.

Crude plunged 4.3 percent yesterday after Halifax, England- based consultant Oil Movements said November shipments by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will rise. OPEC last month agreed to cut output by 1.2 million barrels a day, or 4.4 percent.

``OPEC has to get their act together,'' said Anthony Nunan, deputy general manager for international petroleum business at Tokyo-based Mitsubishi Corp., Japan's biggest trading house. ``That's what the market's saying.''

Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as 27 cents, or 0.5 percent, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, to $55.99 a barrel, taking the decline this week to 6 percent, the largest drop since the week ended Oct. 7 last year.

Yesterday, the futures slumped $2.50 to $56.26, the biggest one-day decline since Aug. 17, 2005. The December contract expires today.



Oil Movements

OPEC's shipments rose 0.9 percent in the month to Dec. 2 to 24.8 million barrels a day from 24.6 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended Nov. 4, Oil Movements said in a weekly report yesterday.

Above-average temperatures will cover the northern third of the U.S. from coast to coast this winter as an El Nino weather pattern persists, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said yesterday in a report that covers December through February. A warmer-than-normal winter in the region would reduce demand for fuels used to run household and commercial furnaces.

``The temperature situation in the U.S. is not helping,'' said Andrew Harrington, a commodities analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney.

El Nino refers to the warming of the ocean surface off the western coast of South America. The phenomenon affects the jet stream, alters storm tracks and creates unusual weather patterns. A moderate to strong El Nino typically brings mild winters to the northern U.S.

FT.com - November 17 2006

Crude falls after natural gas data - By Chris Flood


Oil prices reversed early strength and retreated on Thursday after the release of the latest US weekly natural gas inflows added to record stock levels as winter approaches.

ICE January December Brent fell 77 cents to $59.84 a barrel. Nymex December West Texas Intermediate, due to expire today, dropped $1.08 to $57.68 a barrel, but there was more trading volume in the January WTI contract, down 80 cents to $59.92 a barrel.

Crude has been range trading since the start of October. The decline in crudes price volatility in recent months is in line with equities and bonds but contrasts with increased volatility for some metals and agricultural products.

Rangebound trading has led to the virtual disappearance of speculative long positions in the crude market. But Francisco Blanch, commodity strategist at Merrill Lynch, said the current stability of crude prices might not last long due to a strong outlook for demand growth in emerging markets, an energy investment shortage and weaker production growth from non-Opec countries.

Analysts at Barclays Capital said: The market is ultimately going to face over-tightening and the longer it takes before a more significant move up, the more vicious is likely to be the whiplash when they do start to move.

Nymex December Henry Hub fell 25 cents to $7.867 per million British thermal units after the Energy Information Administration said gas in storage rose 5bn cubic feet last week.

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sorry my posts were related to epic OIL