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Henderson Morley Speculative Buy (HML)     

PapalPower - 19 May 2005 11:34

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Size=283*18Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=HML&Size=big.chart?symb=uk%3Ahml&compidx=aaaaa%3A

Main Web Site : www.henderson-morley.com

On line shop web site : http://www.herpesexpert.com (Frost and Simpson)

Investor Relations email : investors@henderson-morley.com



Henderson Morley is a drug discovery company

The company has been developed specifically to carry out preliminary sourcing and screening of candidates to combat diseases caused by the herpes family of viruses and certain other DNA viruses

Latest GECR update 15th October 2006

Latest GE&CR update - 15th Oct 2006 :


The news investors have all been waiting for - regarding negotiations with a US dermatological pharmaceutical firm has finally been unveiled. The licence has been granted under an agreement to
Cutanea, a U.S. pharmaceutical company, specialising in the development of dermatology products in the US market.

The licence is for new applications of ICVT for the treatment of dermatological conditions in humans. The agreement and takes the form of an exclusive American, Mexican and Canadian wide licence to bring products to market through a programme of pre-clinical and clinical development of treatments either by Cutanea or through a sub-licence. Under the terms of the Agreement, Henderson Morley will receive up to 6.675 million dollars in development and commercialisation milestone payments up to the point at which the application receives regulatory approval, and will receive royalties on net sales thereafter.

Under its business plan, Henderson Morley has stated its belief that, following clinical development and regulatory licence approval, sales of the product in excess of $1.5 billion could be achieved over the subsequent ten year period. This would give a potential royalty to Henderson Morley in excess of $115 million over this term.

As a drug discovery company, it is imperative that Henderson continues to grant licenses to further develop its technology portfolio. This is the group's third ICVT license agreement. Encouragingly, Cutanea has a great management team with a proven track record of commercialising dermatology products.

Meanwhile, the company has announced that it has been working away on a vaccine against Koi Carp Herpes virus. The group believes it is now ready to start field trials of a
candidate vaccine, in a collaboration with the Internationally renowned Hagerman
Aquaculture Research Institute in Idaho USA. The initial immunogenicity studies should produce results within 6 months, enabling Henderson Morley scientists to optimise the vaccine formulation, with a view to securing a product licence from the veterinary authorities as soon as practicable.

Clearly activity at Henderson Morley has been significant in recent weeks. The licensing announcement is very encouraging, but with the news now out of the way, the shares have eased - a classic case of buy on the rumour, sell on the news. That said, the stock has now pulled back below the recent placing price. With so much going on at the company, further newsflow in the shorter term is far from unlikely.

*Henderson Morley is a corporate client of Bishopsgate Communications which is owned by RSH, the ultimate owner of GE&CR.

Forecasts and a formal recommendation are suspended ahead of the publication of a detailed note next month.

ateeq180 - 23 Mar 2006 12:24 - 52 of 296

along side this company,even medisys is also rising today,all looks good.what levels will hml close today,must be a hard guess the way things are going.

moneyplus - 23 Mar 2006 18:37 - 53 of 296

decided yesterday to buy a few anyway the future looks good!! glad I did after today's rise only sorry I didn't have much cash to spare but doing my research it looks as though it is a good share to keep adding on any pull back as when the partner and the size of the payments are confirmed it's likely to continue on up. IMO.

Strawbs - 23 Mar 2006 22:46 - 54 of 296

Sounds like good timing. The price looks a little too hot for me now, especially without some other fundamentals to support it. I have a nasty feeling it's reaching the top of the roller coaster, and the next phase will be a sharp correction. Hope I'm wrong. Good luck with your investment.

Strawbs

PapalPower - 24 Mar 2006 08:30 - 55 of 296

Still a ride to be enjoyed :) at the moment.

Strawbs - 24 Mar 2006 09:52 - 56 of 296

Not a fan of roller coasters myself. I also gave up on see-saws too. Everytime I jumped on the rising end it went the other way. :-) Good luck to everyone holding.

Strawbs.

moneyplus - 24 Mar 2006 12:37 - 57 of 296

notice Billam has picked up a large stake-I think I'll stay in for the ride. some large buys going through today and we should hear more within the 90 days.

dale4j - 24 Mar 2006 19:12 - 58 of 296

PP

I would appreciate your views on this. Where do you see this going next week, and also in the medium term? I bought at 4.14p and topped up this morning at 6.05p. I'm regretting the second purchase, got caught up in the euphoria but I'm new to this and trying to learn as much as possible.

PapalPower - 25 Mar 2006 01:10 - 59 of 296

dale4j, this is the most difficult part, as a big rise needs momentum and sentiment, if the momentum fails then the price will fall, as it will with sentiment. I cannot guess up more or down or stay the same, just keep a watch. For me its long term, so I am not worried over the next few weeks movements, I will keep holding for what happens in months time and later this year. :)

dale4j - 25 Mar 2006 18:32 - 60 of 296

PP, good to hear you believe in the long term prospects of this company. I think I will do the same as you, although if the SP reaches 10p next week, I'll probably sell 50% of my shares. You must be tempted to take some profit now, considering the price you bought these at.

PapalPower - 25 Mar 2006 21:08 - 61 of 296

dale4j I have already had a top slice, and now carry the rest for the long term ;)

PapalPower - 15 Apr 2006 01:25 - 62 of 296

Latest GECR update 15th April 2006 :

It has been an exciting period for biotechnology group Henderson Morley and patient investors have been rewarded handsomely. We have been reiterating the fact that biotech deals take time to source and finalise - but when they do, the share price response can be stellar for some months. This is what has happed with Henderson Morley. Henderson Morley shares actually hit 6.75p on March 24th, 575% significantly above the price (1p) when we initiated coverage of the stock with a "speculative buy" recommendation in May last year. The shares soared after the group signed its first major deal for its anti-viral applications with a major US pharmaceutical group. This deal could, on its own, be worth a multiple of Henderson's market value and we believe that further, similar, deals could be concluded over the medium term.

We believe that the total contract value for this particular deal for Henderson Morley could be in the range of 28-37 million pounds, with milestone payments extrapolated from our original forecasts estimated at around 4 million pounds. Royalty payments could be in the range of 22-31 million pounds. This inaugural licensing deal is expected to act as a framework for any future licensing deals for the company's proprietary drug delivery systems. We believe that discussions on other deals for other products are underway.

The group has a relatively simple product which it is bringing to market. The company has taken 2 common drugs - which have already undergone rigorous safety testing - and has found a new way of using them to treat some very common viral conditions, for which there is currently no effective treatment. The system is called ionic contra-viral therapy, or ICVT for short, and the platform has proved effective for a wide variety of conditions including skin warts, verrucae and genital warts. Henderson Morley has been developing the formulations of its anti-viral treatments and has taken part in typically-protracted talks that are all part of bringing a medical treatment to market. The deal announced this week covers the US, Canada and Mexico

The term sheet gives both parties 90 days to complete a licence which will be granted by Henderson Morley for the topical patch formulation of its ionic contra viral therapy technology P1723. It is expected that the technology will be used to produce products for the treatment of all non-genital warts, including plantar warts or verrucae, and seborrhoeic keratoses in humans, a wart-like skin condition which is common in the elderly.

Upon signing the licence, Henderson Morley will be entitled to receive a series of substantial milestone, development and commercialisation payments during the programme, with the details being released when the contract is finalised in the next 90 days or sooner. The table shows our original forecasts for royalty and licence payments. These forecasts are for global royalty payments and included a 10% risk weighting. Stripping out these effects and we believe that a thumbnail estimate of the royalty payments is around 4 million pounds, with royalty payments at around 22-31 million pounds. The full-terms of the deal are expected to be announced within 90 days of the initial announcement, which was on March 20th, possibly sooner. We have not update our forecast table below until the exact terms of the deal are confirmed.

The licensing news has prompted a significant re-rating of the company's shares, which now stand at 4.375p - well ahead of our initial buy recommendation at 1p. The licensing deal in the lucrative North American market is good news and should the company strike such deals in other territories then we believe the shares remain significantly undervalued. The shares remain a speculative buy.

145132.jpg

moneyplus - 15 Apr 2006 14:32 - 63 of 296

cheers Papal-I've got fingers crossed for this one as a star for 2006! the research says it all.

PapalPower - 03 May 2006 14:32 - 64 of 296

LONDON (AFX) - Henderson Morley PLC said negotiations for the licensing
agreement for its Ionic Contra Viral Therapy (ICVT) are progressing well.
It added the pharmaceutical company with which it is negotiating has asked
to extend the scope of the proposed licence to include other applications and
discussions continue.
The company said it still expects to announce the signing of the final
contract and disclose its key terms within the original 90 day period.
In the same trading update, Henderson said it has placed 18 mln new shares
with investors at 2.5 pence per share, raising 450,000 stg.
The money raised will be used to fund working capital to continue to invest
in its patent portfolio and the ongoing development of ICVT.
newsdesk@afxnews.com

danny52 - 03 May 2006 15:17 - 65 of 296

seems that people dont like the news as there are a lot more sells than buys..the mind boggles

moneyplus - 03 May 2006 15:46 - 66 of 296

very short sighted investors around aren't there!! I'm still happily holding mine.

PapalPower - 03 May 2006 18:38 - 67 of 296

From uk-analyst.com

Aim wonder stock Henderson Morley* was back in play after the company confirmed that contract negotiations were progressing well. The junior biotech group, which among its products currently in development is a potential treatment for genital herpes, said that the pharmaceutical company in question had notified Henderson that it wished to extend the scope for the proposed licence. The original 90-day window for signing the final contract and disclosing key terms was said to be very much achievable. Meanwhile a placing of 450,000 pounds worth of stock at 2.5p provides the company with further working capital to invest in its patent portfolio. The shares closed 1.225p higher at 4.4p

cynic - 04 May 2006 08:33 - 68 of 296

not sure whether to get back in ...... profited last time, but was perhaps trying to be too clever by wating until end May before venturing back ..... Real prob with HML sp, is determing its fair value if this (when) licencing deal comes off.

PapalPower - 08 May 2006 11:11 - 69 of 296

Latest GECR update 8th May 06

It continues to be an exciting period for biotechnology group Henderson Morley and patient investors have been rewarded handsomely. Last month, the company's shares soared as the group unveiled a deal with an un-named pharmaceuticals group for its anti-viral applications. This deal could, on its own, be worth a multiple of Henderson's market value and we believe that further, similar, deals could be concluded over the medium term.

Last month we said that we believed that the total contract value for this particular deal for Henderson Morley could be in the range of 28-37 million pounds, with milestone payments extrapolated from our original forecasts estimated at around 4 million pounds. Royalty payments could be in the range of 22-31 million pounds. However, the deal could be worth even more than this as the company has revealed that the pharmaceutical group in question had now indicated that it wished to extend the scope of the proposed licence to include other applications. Despite the further discussions, Henderson Morley still expects to be able to announce the signing of the final contract and disclose its key terms within the original 90-day period, which means we should have the full terms of the deal ahead of the next monthly update.

At the same time the company has unveiled details of a placing. The group placed 18 million new shares at 2.5p a share, raising 450,000 pounds. The total number of shares in issue is now 401,928,632. these funds will be used to provide the company with working capital to continue to invest in its patent portfolio and the ongoing development of ICVT ahead of the first milestone payments.

This inaugural licensing deal is expected to act as a framework for any future licensing deals for the company's proprietary drug delivery systems. We believe that discussions on other deals for other products are still underway. The group has a relatively simple product which it is bringing to market. The company has taken 2 common drugs - which have already undergone rigorous safety testing - and has found a new way of using them to treat some very common viral conditions, for which there is currently no effective treatment. The system is called ionic contra-viral therapy, or ICVT for short, and the platform has proved effective for a wide variety of conditions including skin warts, verrucae and genital warts. Henderson Morley has been developing the formulations of its anti-viral treatments and has taken part in typically-protracted talks that are all part of bringing a medical treatment to market. The deal announced this week covers the US, Canada and Mexico

Upon signing the licence, Henderson Morley will be entitled to receive a series of substantial milestone, development and commercialisation payments during the programme, with the details being released when the contract is finalised in the next 90 days or sooner. The table shows our original forecasts for royalty and licence payments. These forecasts are for global royalty payments and included a 10% risk weighting. Stripping out these effects and we believe that a thumbnail estimate of the royalty payments is around 4 million pounds, with royalty payments at around 22-31 million pounds. The full-terms of the deal are expected to be announced within 90 days of the initial announcement, which was on March 20th, possibly sooner. We have not update our forecast table below until the exact terms of the deal are confirmed.

The licensing news has prompted a significant re-rating of the company's shares, which now stand at 4.55p - well ahead of our initial buy recommendation at 1p. The licensing deal in the lucrative North American market is good news and should the company strike such deals in other territories then we believe the shares remain significantly undervalued. The shares remain a speculative buy.

Haystack - 09 May 2006 20:52 - 70 of 296

Will the deal come off though. They have had talks before about deals which have come to nothing. Attheend of 2001 their SP tanked for nearly a year after one deal failed.

refraction - 09 May 2006 21:07 - 71 of 296

Haystack.....yeah appreciate HML have had problems in the past but this time it's the real thing. The ICVT has been throuhg it's tests and the deal was going to be announced very soon apart from the pharma wanting to extend the applications,
All positive and looking forward to a big RNS
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