18th October 2007 : Leadcom voted "AIM International Company of the Year for 2007"




Main Web Site : http://www.leadcom-is.com/

Investor Relations Email : investorsinfo@leadcom-is.com

They only rose the price due to the IC buy tip, now that is out of the way it will return to where it was prior imo

Altium Forecast 18th Jan 2007 Buy recommendation.


The now historic figures for 2006 will be reported late Feb 2007.

2006 Pre-Tax 7.46m
2006 EPS 4.52p
2006 DPS 1.07p


Current Year 2007 forecasts

2007 Pre-Tax 10.71m
2007 EPS 6.04p
2007 DPS 1.52p


(Note my comment : Media comment mid Jan 07 that LEAD already have 100m $ of the expected "not less than 180m $ revenue for 2007" in the bag so far. RNS comment earlier that the forward pipeline of opportunity was then at the 600m $ level which now includes BSNL into the "potential" category, but does not account for it in the revenue or earnings forecast in any major way, this 600m $ forward potential also excludes the Reliance tender which will be coming soon in India and is also larger in size than BSNL potential deal. The good thing about that is that in India its only BSNL who have to go through these ridiculous tender procedures and scrutiny afterwards, all the other comapnies can do what they want basically. BSNL are petitioning that in future they are treated like all their compeitors and can award tenders as they see fit, without the government scrutiny of it all. I would also expect slightly lower EPS for 2006, perhaps around 4p levels not the 4.5p Altium forecast for last year, but thats just IMO, like it all)

It would appear that SCAP have stock to sell at around 55p, which is why we have come back down since the little mark up for the IC tip to buy Leadcom.

Does look like SCAP are now clear of the line of stock they were selling. Spread has been widened and L2 now 3 v 3 so would guess its balanced now.

Here is a bit of a commentary on the BSNL case, next hearing is the 12th of Feb :


http://predictwallstreet.com/news/default.asp?storyID=40941870&symbol=MOT


Indian GSM Mega-Build Heads For Court

Feb 02, 2007 (TelecomWeb news break/Access Intelligence via COMTEX News Network) -- Motorola reportedly rejected an attempt by India's state-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) to come up with a temporary solution to the controversy surrounding BSNL's massive $7 billion, 63.4 million-line GSM expansion.

The U.S. company had been disqualified in the bidding - which was won in October 2006 by Sweden's Ericsson with Nokia coming in second - and went running to India's courts in a move that has stymied BSNL's attempts to expand its cellular network, said to be operating at near capacity today.

Within hours of naming the winner, Motorola had protested the victory to India's Delhi High Court (TelecomWeb news break, Oct. 6, 2006), which now has the case scheduled for a hearing that finally will start Feb. 12 after months of delays. In addition, India's Prime Minister had begun questioning the bid process.

Reports out of India now indicate that BSNL, in order to get at least part of the expansion work started, has attempted to cut a deal with Motorola under which 40 percent of the lines bid would be contracted. The rationale for that was that if Motorola does win its case, it could get, at best, 60 percent of the contract. And that's because the way the bidding was set up, the low bidder was to get 60 percent and the second lowest the rest, with the caveat that the low bidder's price had to be matched. No reason was given for Motorola's rejection of the temporary compromise (TelecomWeb news break would guess that Motorola is simply attempting to put pressure on BSNL).

The exact reasons why Motorola was disqualified from the bidding still remain obscure. Motorola in its lawsuit says it really hasn't been formally officially notified. However, BSNL had said, when it disqualified Motorola two days before financial bids were opened, that the company failed to meet "certain parameters relating to security clauses." That's believed to be in some ways related to Motorola cooperating with China's ZTE on the bid. More recently, reports have theorized Motorola was disqualified based on conditions set by the Indian government that a bidder had to be a "profit-earning company" in the two years prior to the bidding. Motorola did not meet this criterion because it had suffered a loss in 2004-05 (Motorola did show a loss in the second quarter of FY04), one theory goes.

Meanwhile, BSNL executives have been widely quoted in the local Indian press as being frustrated that their competitors - who are not owned by the government - can simply negotiate contracts rapidly, instead of being forced to go through a long, drawn-out bidding process that, what with the court action, could delay BSNL's network buildout by almost a year. In the meantime, other Indian carriers, as has been repeatedly reported in TelecomWeb news break, are madly building new wireless infrastructure to service the exploding market for wireless in the world's largest democracy.

The huge contract initially had attracted the attention of a reported 18 telecom and IT suppliers looking for piece of the business (TelecomWeb news break, April 10, 2006). Alcatel (now Alcatel-Lucent), in concert with local state-owned supplier ITI, already bagged an order for 18 million of the 63.4 million lines through an obscure reserved-quota system set up as a part of a government policy to boost domestic manufacturing. Like Nokia and/or Motorola if it wins its case, Alcatel-Lucent/ITI has to match the low bid price proffered by Ericsson - unless it turns out in the end that Motorola wins by putting in the low bid. Then everyone else will have to match the Motorola bid.

The installation of capacity for 63.4 million GSM lines gives BSNL the potential to quadruple the company's current base that today tops 20 million subscribers. The rollout is scheduled to take place during a period of three years, with about half the new capacity going into rural India - a massive and barely tapped market where about two-thirds of the country's population lives and where wireless coverage ranges from spotty to nonexistent.

There's a growth story if ever I heard one, wish they'd sort it out and get those contracts moving, be good to hear some news. Well done Papal keep up the good work.

The X and T trades today might have cleared the line of stock SCAP were selling, in which case we might firm a little.......

Certainly looks like the SCAP overhang was taken up late today, interesting MM buy of 50K at 55p after hours (16:32).

Posts from AFN this morning for info :


macansy77 - 9 Feb'07 - 09:46 - 3627 of 3628

anyone checked the true level 2 this morning?

WINS and SCAP are both bidding for 100k.
max offer is just 5k.

think it's safe to say that the SCAP line has been taken!



PapalPower - 9 Feb'07 - 09:54 - 3628 of 3628

Thanks macansy, I do not have access to the "real" broker L2, just public L2, so your updates are greatly appreciated.

That would explain the MM buy then, there must be a decent sized order placed.

Looking quite strong now.........

Yes it is, let's hope this is the beginning of some real strength now.
2517

This was Paul Hills tip to buy Leadcom at 61p, near where we are now. This was badly timed as not long after Artemis and a few others decide to dump their holdings in fear of a placing it seems ????, which resulted in the SP falling to 45p. With that now gone and some egg on face over no placing, lets go back to the article in Moneyweek, in the link below.


http://www.moneyweek.com/file/18815/paul-hills-tip-of-the-week-a-small-cap-with-big-prospects.html

Up some more, all blue on L2 and now 2 v 3 @57.5/60

Just broke through 200 MDA, looking good!

silvermede---------I believe that's usually a bullish sign, I certainly hope so.
2517

new chart for you .... shows 50 and 200 dma ...... old 5 year chart is also useful ref - see post 487 .... actually for some reason only shows 18 months, which i guess is company's life

Well, no real big trades gone through, which should mean that the buy orders have yet to be filled completely.

15 times current year (07) forecast equates to 85p, and that excludes lots of the BSNL potential work etc..as well it should at the moment.

For a stock putting in a CAGR of 40%, is just 15 times current year forecast too much....especially when they have access to more cash if needed through the Bond market.........I think that rating is not at all racy.

Cash in the bank earns you nothing, although it offers support to fall back on for a share price, it also shows that the company cannot grow any faster (as who would keep cash in the bank if you can grow revenues and PBT by utilising it) (or the management are too lazy to bother using the cash to grow the business and are happy to sit on it).

Leadcom can grow revenues and more importantly margins by using their available cash wisely, and hopefully once we get 2006 figures out of the way later this month, we will see in 2007 their strategy paying back handsomely imo.

Hi PapalPower,

Im really grateful for all the work and reasearch you put into
this particular stock as well as the other posts that I have seen you publish on the forum! You can make life so much easier for the novice investor. ARE you an indirect employee of Leadcom as your comments above are so convincing! lol....although I had faith in this co previous to your posts. I genuinely had faith in the prospects of this co although I cant deny your views helped tip the scales at times!!

thanks Iankn73

Iankn, no, I do not work for them, just an interested private investor. I do contact the senior management of the companies I am interested in, as that is a key part of doing your own research.

My thoughts are just that, my thoughts, and can be incorrect as well as correct, the key thing for everyone is to do their own research and be happy, on their own, with their investment strategy. I'll post whatever links, comments or views I can get hold off, as it does help others doing their research.

Positive times ahead I hope, lets see what the next two weeks brings !

Heres hoping LEAD is finally moving in the right direction! Have a good weekend PapalPower.