HARRYCAT
- 09 Jan 2007 09:34
- 528 of 3050
SOLA bid 485p. Now to see if 500 is going to be a resistance level. I suspect a certain amount of profit taking before that.
fortitude18
- 09 Jan 2007 09:43
- 529 of 3050
tipped in techinvest
goldfinger
- 09 Jan 2007 11:26
- 531 of 3050
Just lifted this from another site, looks like Winnie is still after this one...
Stock in the News - Renesola (SOLA)
Tom writes: The Chinese AIM bubble will burst because of a) scandal and b) hype and overvaluation. Bodisen Biotech is already supplying the former in spades. Renesola is a prime candidate to supply the latter. At 454p the market capitalisation is 454 million. On a minimal tax charge (is that sustainable?) third quarter post tax profit was just under 4 million but there was a net cash outflow. Net current assets are just 13 million and net assets not much over 20 million. So on an annualised PE of almost 30 and a vast premium, to net assets why is anyone tempted to buy? Hype and daft charting analysis..
cynic
- 09 Jan 2007 11:31
- 532 of 3050
the prob with SOLA is that it is so young that it has no trading record or anything else of merit ..... thus evaluating the company and the level the sp deserves is even harder than usual ...... i fear gut instinct will be the best guide, but an equal racing certainty that most of us will not follow it
goldfinger
- 09 Jan 2007 11:41
- 534 of 3050
ST yup I know you wouldnt do that from past performance.
He as a point on net cash outflow and on NAV, perhaphs is motive is to help his chum Evil K?.
cynic
- 09 Jan 2007 15:43
- 536 of 3050
have just taken my (very nice) profit on SOLA for a second time ...... not saying it isn't good medium or even long term, but feel some profit taking is well overdue, and 500 looks as though it may have been a step too far ...... am sure i shall be back in ...... shall be watching closely the sharply rising 25 dma and sp's reaction to it
red = 25 dma
green = 50 dma
rpi indicates pretty overbought, though not horrendously so
HARRYCAT
- 09 Jan 2007 19:13
- 537 of 3050
What relevance is the 25 dma please. I understand the principle of the 200 dma, but surely 25 is a far too short a time span to judge the next move on the chart?
cynic
- 09 Jan 2007 20:41
- 538 of 3050
in fact i would rather have 20 dma, but for some reason the chart system here does not allow it ..... relevance is that it tends to indicate (short term) trends .... you will often find that it provides a support (or resistance), so if it is broken and one has a decent profit, then it may be wise to take it, if you are a trader .... conversely, the price may well bounce off that level .... have a look at the chart above and you will see what i mean
overall, in my very amateurish way, i am trying to determine trend, and that is what will often influence my own decisions .... occasionally i am right!
goldfinger
- 09 Jan 2007 23:08
- 539 of 3050
I think Cynic as done very well in this case.
Tomorrow I could and probably will be proved wrong, but at least the guy as the balls to say 'yes this is enough' and im taking a well deserved profit.
Thats if I have read him properly????????????????????
cynic
- 10 Jan 2007 07:11
- 540 of 3050
thanks goldfinger, though whether gambling on the stockmarket and making a profit, calling such well-deserved is open to a very intersting moral debate!
seawallwalker
- 10 Jan 2007 07:22
- 541 of 3050
cynic you read these charts better than me!
Well done
I must do more, I've got the software, I tend to study the minute by minute trades for short term gain especially the bot trades.
They can be a good indicator.
cynic
- 10 Jan 2007 07:23
- 542 of 3050
i don't and confess my interpretations are amateur in the extreme
fortitude18
- 10 Jan 2007 08:10
- 543 of 3050
stick to the fundamentals. charts for a stock that was floated in August is surely a complete waste of time. the trend is definitely up and not down and with more good news to come this will be ranging higher in 2007
imo
f18
cynic
- 10 Jan 2007 15:53
- 544 of 3050
fortitude ..... while i don't disagree with you long term, and even have some sympathy with your view re charts on new issues, i still think SOLA are due for a (sharp?) correction ...... perhaps i'm wrong but for sure i won't regret having banked a profit half as much as i would rue my greed if i am right.
by the way, there are no real fundamentals for SOLA, for the very reason you mention ..... they have no history
fortitude18
- 10 Jan 2007 23:12
- 545 of 3050
the fundamentals are going forward not looking backwards. Suntech, Motech, BP Solar do not place vital wafer orders with 'any old' company esp when their own production capacity depends on the delivery of quality on time and on budget. The company itself was floated in August but has been trading since 2005. With the next 2 years output already pre-sold and with contracts signed to be announced I cannot see another company that shows superb earnings visibility. There are surprises round the corner with this company. Moreover, it is a common fallacy that just because a stock as risen by multiples in a short space of time it as to necessarily fall back. SOLA rose to over 500p and corrected back to 395P..a fall of over 20% in a week! That is a correction of the highest magnitude. We are trading in a range of 450-500p with substantial inst. buying in this range. Why? Because institutions know they are buying substantial earnings going forward. In 12 months time the multiple will be lower than its is now.
If you had adopted your approach one would have sold MIcrosoft, Oracle, Cisco even before they had started to appreciate in real value..
the 'other site' provides insights that this thread sadly lacks unfortunately..
f18
cynic
- 11 Jan 2007 08:31
- 546 of 3050
F18 .... i too am a great believer in following trend .... however, i am a trader at heart and therefore one is not just or even necessarily looking at long term outlook ..... institutions have to have a totally different outlook from most PIs, so it is not quite fair to link them ..... to revert ... i know from my own days of following Cisco, that that was pretty volatile ...... i am sure that even you would admit that, no matter how "good" the stock, it does not rise in a straight line any more than a "bad" one falls .... with regard to SOLA, having been alerted to it in the first place by my good friend Soul*, i thoroughly concur that in the long or even short/medium term it is a very good stock ...... nevertheless, my own view is that sp now needs a breather and perhaps even a correction before hopefully moving ahead again.