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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

cynic - 07 Mar 2007 21:01 - 528 of 1564

Dow has finished soggy even if marginally ahead ...... Thursday may well turn out twitchy

Strawbs - 07 Mar 2007 23:05 - 529 of 1564

With the Yen gaining strength against the dollar again (currently 115.8), I suspect "carry trade" worries will be in traders minds again..... It could also add some nervousness to Asian trade later tonight. Non farm payrolls on Friday might also fuel or flatten the fire.

Strawbs.

hlyeo98 - 07 Mar 2007 23:43 - 530 of 1564

Looks like we are in for another roller coaster ride tomorrow. Put on your seat belts. Dow in steep decline at finishing minutes.

cynic - 08 Mar 2007 07:41 - 531 of 1564

that was my prognostication, but IG indicate strong opening for bothe FTSE and Dow ...... but not inclined to believe that the latter (in particular) will hold.

another indicator of nastiness ahead (i think) is the sudden surge in house prices yet again BUT, from an insider (not me), there are strong indications that come autumn the housing market will have turned pretty sour.

also suggest you take a peek at the Telegraph Biz headline article this morning ...... "Turmoil forces hedge fund to slah investment target by 40%" ...... and another lead article, "Stealth tax threat to private equity"

s040371giles - 08 Mar 2007 08:22 - 532 of 1564

Still on the sidelines here, and will remain so until there is a rise of at least 1% in the indices on above average volume.

For those who might be curious, my timing of when to get in and out of the market, and my interpretation of the market direction, is loosely based on William J O'Neill's writings, which has served me well. It matches my feeling that I'd rather be a bit late entering, instead of jumping in too early.

As always, DYOR.

Steve

cynic - 08 Mar 2007 08:42 - 533 of 1564

it's more a case of getting out (or short) rather than in at the moment

Stan - 08 Mar 2007 08:48 - 534 of 1564

Very happy to be 100% cash at the moment.

Big Al - 08 Mar 2007 09:10 - 535 of 1564

I'm happy to play it both ways. The volatility makes for rich pickings. ;-)))

Reminds me of the good old days.

cynic - 08 Mar 2007 09:35 - 536 of 1564

so tell me Al ..... do you think today's strong showing will hold?

Big Al - 08 Mar 2007 09:44 - 537 of 1564

I'd like a higher bounce, cynic, into which I can get short. I believe there's another leg down yet.

12350 Dow and 6250 UKX would be fine by me. The 200MA for the Dow is still only at 11800. You could argue it should test that?

cynic - 08 Mar 2007 10:14 - 538 of 1564

as i am already short, would rather straight down from here! ...... but agree that i cannot see much or any upside warranted ..... like you, i think there's still a lot of nastiness to come

Strawbs - 08 Mar 2007 11:20 - 539 of 1564

Well the Yen seems to be going the wrong way now for "carry trade" worries, so I guess it'll be Friday's jobs report setting the tone going forward.

Strawbs.

cynic - 08 Mar 2007 11:36 - 540 of 1564

$ is now slowly falling against , so that suits me (biz) very well ...... still happy to stay short Dow as it seems to me that too much bad and potentially horrid news is being ignored

hlyeo98 - 08 Mar 2007 12:00 - 541 of 1564

Looks like brighter days are here to stay now, cynic.

Strawbs - 08 Mar 2007 12:19 - 542 of 1564

Could be. Think I'll see what Friday's jobs data brings. Still. I'm starting to wonder if the phrase "Even if you're right, and everyone else is wrong, you're still in the minority" says a lot about market psychology.......

Strawbs.

hlyeo98 - 08 Mar 2007 12:39 - 543 of 1564

It does make sense...majority wins.

Strawbs - 08 Mar 2007 12:58 - 544 of 1564

And possibly loses too... ;-)

Strawbs

cynic - 08 Mar 2007 13:04 - 545 of 1564

hyleo .... really hope you are not going to get suckered into that line of thought ..... sunny today but rain forecast for tonight ..... that's the weather forecast, but may apply elsewhere

hlyeo98 - 08 Mar 2007 13:09 - 546 of 1564

I really don't think so now. Sunny weather ahead, cynic.

cynic - 08 Mar 2007 13:45 - 547 of 1564

take your brolly and wellies ...... weather is really not remotely that certain
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