Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

ahoj -there is just a very very tenuous link between conflict in other countries and part-time working and the like in uk ......the train of logic is so remote that it is wildly insufficient on which to hang some sort if global economic argument

Napoleon,

Bullshit!

Try thinking before posting.

And no, I am not going to explain it to you.

You are a big boy and DYOH.
===

Ahoy,


War can and does often raise the level of employment, even if some of the rise in employed spend their time manufacturing arms or weapons to blow bigger and better holes in each other.

If the same enthusiasm could be found for the "forces" and "manufacturers" before, or during a humanitarian crisis then a more "comfortable" world may occur.

Unlikely, as can be seen the "dollar" is still the icon of worshiped and "possessions" the measurement of personal value for the majority.

Humm,
You might be right about defence jobs, but it certainly won't generate future prosperity and hope. It leaves death, disabled, and long term downturn for that country and its people

Clearly, since the start of conflict in Ukraine, Europe started downturn (with delay off course) and its side-effects is felt here.

It has stuttered due to the "conflict".

But what has hammered the markets is confusion arising from "oil" pricing and its support mechanisms and servicing industry.

(I think, but may be completely wrong.)

52991 - fred can splutter as much as he likes, but i stand my view which imo is a damn sight more accurate


fred- try thinking before posting, and no i am not going to explain it you ......
there is nothing remotely confusing about the current price of oil, not the logic behind its manipulation, nor the knock-on effects

We have Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, Yemen, and probably many more countries unstable or in war, and we sanctioned Iran and Russia as a result of one or the other. All of these contribute to lack of demand for everything and oil is one of them, IMO.
Count the population ??? about 350 mln people? I might be wrong though

you could very easily be wrong, though the current unrest in m/e has certainly hit biz confidence in that region

the chinese economy is now less robust - just a measly 7% growth forecast from memory - and india has been going through some very tough economic times over the last 2/3 years ...... i'm not sure how the south american countries are faring, though their love of imposing hefty withholding taxes often means that goods and services have to be over-priced by suppliers to compensate

the sudden collapse of the oil price is, i think, far more serious ......
leaving aside that russia and the us shale producers have been very much targetted, the effect has been touching on the disastrous for all sorts of petro-linked industries

however, just as the world economies learned to cope with much higher oil prices, so no doubt it will come to terms with the reverse should it remain that way for any length of time .....

however, i would doubt that even saudi will want to tolerate prices at the current levels for very long, for though it is a very cheap producer, i recollect that its budget was and i guess still is predicated on a crude price of about $85

ahoj,




I was interested and tried to dig up some charts, but whether GDP etc. was defined then as now, I am not sure.

I would have expected growth to be bigger and a little surprise by post war expansion, but again should have expected it.

I'd like to know when we are going to see 50p a litre petrol..


(never)

There is a strong likelihood that Saudi and the US are using the low oil price to beat Russia with. The price has been predicted to go much lower yet. One prediction last week was $43. The US shale producers will carry on as usual as a lot of their costs were up front. The same applies to many of the conventional producers. The situation is very serious for many countries who have budgeted for much higher prices. Venezuela will probably default on debt payments soon. Russia's economy is funded by oil. Many producers are now selling at lower than production costs. Exploration companies are already cutting back with BP announcing several thousand jobs to go. The lower oil price will increase world instability for sure with Russia getting increasingly angry.

Is there such a thing as a platform for future oil prices that ordinary punters can gamble on?

Good luck.

But there must be efts or SBs on commodities.

But consider where Iranian interests lie.

iran needs higher oil prices of course, but i can't see that they have much influence even within opec, where for sure saudi will not them

assuredly you can buy into (or sell) crude CFDs and therefore s/b

Thanks Fred, cynic.

I'll look into the cfd/sb side of things.

The oil price is too low by any standard, so there might be a way of making a few bob instead of losing it on smallcap oilers.



We appear to be witnessing up what used to be known as the great game ... up front!

Any idea when the dollar is going to weaken?

When people wake up to the fact that the dolla is just a piece of paper with a promise attached to it.

Watch China and others who are cheesed off with picking up worthless bits of paper.

Kerry Smith has resigned as a UKIP prospective parliamentary candidate after apologising for offensive remarks he made in a phone call.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30473388

China won't rock the boat. They are effectively financing the US debt in exchange for access to the US market. It has been that way for around twenty years. They currently hold $1.25 trillion. That's is about a fifth of the total US debt. China likes it that way as it enables them to keep their currency low. It also gives them some political clout with the US. Occasionally they threaten to sell some of the debt, which would cause US interest rates to rise and slow growth.

Any idea when the dollar is going to weaken?

Yes, thank you.