As most of us already know that the preliminary results of a pivotal European Phase III trial of the BTG's greatest star VARISOLVE were positive.

- Overall response rate in patients (435 patients) treated with VARISOLVE was 83.4%, in line with expectations.
- Established that VARISOLVE is similar in efficacy to conventional treatments (sclerotherapy or surgery) in the treatment of moderate to severe varicose veins.
- The winning factor is that both physicians and patients would welcome this rapid, virtually painless, treatment for varicose veins.

But, the Varisolve US Phase II safety study has been put on clinical hold by FDA, continue to worry investors for about a month now since its announcement. Consequently shares oversold till today. This could be long enough and is an investment opportunity worth monitoring. Any spark of hope could easily double the share price. Base on the assumption that Varisolve may not survive the trails despite additional costs and efforts to do additional tests to accumulate enough proves and statistics or to improve their procedures, which is unlikely although sources suggest that the clinical Hold is more likely to cause a delay of 1-2 years to its commercialisation date, the net current asset value of the company alone is estimated to be around 190 – 250 (consensus from various analyst), excluding any contribution from Varisolve US and Europe. Note that BTG total revenues increased by 35% to 19.1 million (2002: 14.2 million). Investors will bet on the company’s ability to generate enough cash to carry Varisolve through till its commercialisation, which is estimated to be 2005/6/7 in EU and 2007/8/9 US. With institutional investments from Deutsche Bank AG (More than 11%), Amvescap PLC (More than 26%), Bank of New York Europe Limited and many more…, the risk may still remain significant, but definitely one to keep close to your screen. Remember that they have many more high potential projects on parallel development. Opportunity like this don't come often.

Investors are expecting BTG to clarified their strategy and plan to overcome their challenges associated with Varisolve by early 2004. The next important date will be in early February 2004 which may be an opportunity for them to inspire some confidence (2nd Annual BioPartnering North America).

My opinion : Now is the time to get in!!!

Well it may be I held too long, this week, I've just sold my entire ISA holding (in BTG) as I can't afford to watch a profit dry up. The war in Iraq and the new war in Lebanon just don't look good for financial markets.
Varisolve is some way off so I'm hoping the market will be less interested in BTG as a result....it is unfortunate that investors focus on the one Big product - but that's more-or-less what I'm focussed on so it's the same.
I may buy-in if the story improves.

Ah, what to do?
BTG sp has gone off like a rocket just after Dirs smeared themselves with Options.
Well, the fact is that there can't be any good news round the corner (ie already known or anticipated by Dirs)- otherwise they'd have to say and their Option-pricing would increase accordingly......the sp rise beforehand was due IMHO to MM's knowing the Dirs were about to buy... and buying at any price.
However, the Market is selling BGC stock - almost every day we see records of Trades that would suggest there are plenty of Sellers at current prices - yet the MM's continue to push up prices.
Well, for the time-being I'm not convinced that my ISA should be stuffed with this stock - I fear there is yet to be a correction in advance of any news (please!) on a Partner for Vs......why is no-one interested (ie US-Pharma Distributors), I wonder?

Good interims today
next year could be sweet

Good results today from European phase III Varisolve trial.
This may help with partnering negotiations, and with more news from BTG's R&D pipeline on the horizon the next few months could spark the SP.

Late Feb 2007
- Seems BTG's prostate product is up to expectations - - yet the sp is not recognising this - - - probably we are too concerned with Varisolve which is in "Quiet season" this year also.....

-Still, it looks like the BTG-pipeline is alive and well.
Early-days for this treatment, but encouraging that Management have turned this company into a discovery and exploiation co. (the discovery bit being relatively easy.). Vs is "no-news" which is to be expected....
Ah well, wait a bit longer - - -