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FTSE + FTSE 250 - consider trading (FTSE)     

cynic - 20 Oct 2007 12:12

rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Camelot - 17 May 2010 08:08 - 5307 of 21973

splat
nice trade

but you could have posted that trade at any time since 7 am

why wait until ftse is at 5240 ?

cynic - 17 May 2010 08:13 - 5308 of 21973

a true comment C, but if splat has actually done as he says, then he was quite brave, smacking of catching falling knife - fortunately for him, it may well have worked this time

hilary - 17 May 2010 08:18 - 5309 of 21973

Camelot,

I don't have time to dig out the exact figures right now, but something like 1% of UK GDP comes from agriculture, 23% from industry and the remaining 76% comes from the service sector.

The service sector includes anything that is run from an office, hotels, restaurants, real estate, etc as well as a relatively small contribution from the public sector from health, education, defence and even silly little things like leisure and recreational facilities. At a guess (like I say, I don't have time to check it out right now), I would estimate the public sector GDP contribution to be around $250bn or even $3bn. This figure would represent around 10% of total UK GDP at the outside.

As I said previously, the statement in your earlier posting is inaccurate.

splat - 17 May 2010 08:18 - 5310 of 21973

because I have been trading other stocks in a lively market and frankly haven't had time. It's a usual technique with index trading for me to start with a small position and increase if it is a long way against me in a particularly volatile market as in my experience, moves such as the one we saw on Friday are frequently followed by some sort of temporary correction. I've been trading a long time and feel comfortable with my own reading of the indices, I'm sure everyone trades them differently

Chris Carson - 17 May 2010 08:29 - 5311 of 21973

You tell em Splat! Covered MKS short +10

Camelot - 17 May 2010 08:31 - 5312 of 21973

hilary

you are going to have to rework those estimates of yours
they are wildly out

anyway, you can't dispute official figures with 'private' estimates

cynic - 17 May 2010 08:38 - 5313 of 21973

i can't and don't fundamentally disagree with you splat, but i certainly would not have opened a position at us close on friday with a very uncertain w/e ahead .... i like to be able to keep an eye on things, which is why i do not trade the likes of nikkei

splat - 17 May 2010 08:41 - 5314 of 21973

that's what I mean cynic - we all have different trading styles. It's all about each person's perceived, or acceptable risk - as it turns out, I was out far too early, so hardly the greatest trade on earth.

skinny - 17 May 2010 08:45 - 5315 of 21973

Splat - I had +72 first thing - 5216 - 5288 and am now short @5285 - funny old game :-)

hilary - 17 May 2010 08:54 - 5316 of 21973

Camelot,

I am not going to have to rework anything. The public sector does not contribute 52% to UK GDP. Do you actually know and understand what GDP is?

Camelot - 17 May 2010 08:56 - 5317 of 21973

dearie me

I suggest you look at the map again

its attribution is quite clear

hilary - 17 May 2010 09:04 - 5318 of 21973

I'm not disputing the map. As you say, it is quite clear and it relates to public sector spending as a percentage of GDP by region.

What I am disputing is your opening statement which clearly says "Over 52 per cent of the UKs GDP is derived from public sector activity". That statement is unrelated to the graph and implies something completely different to the graph.

cynic - 17 May 2010 09:07 - 5319 of 21973

personally, i don't care! .... nor do i have much interest in (manipulated) gdp figures and the like ..... as much as anything else, it is sentiment and confidence that drives the consumer (real) economy (as it does the markets), and it is that that ultimately drives uk's prosperity

as it stands, we all feel pretty battered, with further tax hikes inevitable and unemployment unlikely to start falling consistently for a further 6 months, or more likely 12

hilary - 17 May 2010 09:09 - 5320 of 21973

From Wikipedia:

Public administration and defence

The Blue Book 2006 reports that this sector added gross value of 55,280 million to the UK economy in 2004.[55]

Education

The Blue Book 2006 reports that this sector added gross value of 61,786 million to the UK economy in 2004.[55]

Health and social work

The Blue Book 2006 reports that this sector added gross value of 75,817 million to the UK economy in 2004.[55]

Add those figures together, adjust them for recent growth and tell me what percentage of total UK GDP they represent.

You'll find it's a long way short of 52%

splat - 17 May 2010 09:17 - 5321 of 21973

nice one skinners :-)

Camelot - 17 May 2010 09:38 - 5322 of 21973

Official figures before the Budget on Wednesday disclose that public spending makes up 52 per cent of the gross domestic product.

The figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) disclose that central and local government spending made up 52.1 per cent of Britains GDP last year.

The OECD forecast that this proportion would continue to rise over the next two years as more Britons became reliant on the welfare state.

The figures mark an important turning point for Britain, which historically has prided itself on being a nation of private enterprise and endeavour.

If you dont agree, you can rant to them here
nicholas.bray@oecd.org

hilary - 17 May 2010 09:42 - 5323 of 21973

Camelot,

What you have said in post 5322 is not in contention, albeit that figure is now over a year old and the true percentage is now 62% of GDP.

It is the opening paragraph of your original post that is both inaccurate and misleading.

Camelot - 17 May 2010 09:53 - 5324 of 21973

62% ?

lol

probably would be if labour was still in power

(but forecast is only 53.4%)

hilary - 17 May 2010 11:04 - 5325 of 21973

Yes, currently 62% as at the end of March 2010.

Official ONS data

Camelot - 17 May 2010 11:33 - 5326 of 21973

for heavens sake hilary you are talking about debt

you have not read the post properly at all

The post is about annual expenditure

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