markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
required field
- 29 Oct 2010 16:16
- 5324 of 6492
He has nothing to do with it (I hope)...but that graph over there looks atrocious....perhaps a blip up is coming...anyway check out AFC...going like a train again....
avsec
- 29 Oct 2010 16:17
- 5325 of 6492
Don't think they can get anything out now!
Time to start the weekend and be an early bird on Monday having enjoyed the extra hour of slumber!
required field
- 29 Oct 2010 16:21
- 5326 of 6492
We better get the sunday times or one of the others...they seem to find out before anybody else...
halifax
- 29 Oct 2010 16:27
- 5327 of 6492
nail biting weekend for some but not for us.
required field
- 29 Oct 2010 16:30
- 5328 of 6492
My plan is to top up on RKH....perhaps on monday...we shall see...
cynic
- 29 Oct 2010 16:35
- 5330 of 6492
calm for me too hali, though i have some (short) exposure here, ditto with FOGL, and small long in RKH
required field
- 29 Oct 2010 16:37
- 5331 of 6492
At this stage...could be risky....braver than me...for DES...I could have, but daren't risk it....
gibby
- 29 Oct 2010 18:25
- 5332 of 6492
well decided to hold me des over the weekend - buoyed by afc today! i have decided i am mad because if i am honest i reckon des will probably not have found much worth reporting i.e. sizeable hc find, which is great news for cynic if so - at least one of us will do well!! however being as i am mad now a tiny bit of me and that down market rag the sun thinks they may have a find worth something, then the other drills so we'll see - modest investment if it goes tits up just leave in the bottom drawer till the other drills which have an incredibly high 1 in 10 chance - lol! be eaiser to light me cigars with a 50 pound note - at least i can watch it burn!! gla
required field
- 29 Oct 2010 20:23
- 5333 of 6492
In the short term...perhaps not good, but over a year or so...loads of prospects to be drilled...very tricky playing cfd's on this and even more so on spreads but shares over 1 to 2 years...will come right at some stage for a profit big or small.
gibby
- 29 Oct 2010 21:01
- 5334 of 6492
rf - i think you are right - & if rach is a duster / non commercial - i am seriously not really worried either way - great if hcs found - if not will hang on and top up as low as possible along the way - have a good evening
markymar
- 30 Oct 2010 12:55
- 5335 of 6492
I mentioned this yesterday that with Rachael been a duster and Desire side tracking in to another fan system Marlon seems to think it is Kath.even if hydrocarbon are found I would think it will be uneconomical to extract .which is bad news if you are holding Desire Shares, thought we would of got news yesterday and wondering if the gale force winds they were experiencing yesterday interrupted the logging so I guess we will all know the results on Monday.
From marlonthemonkey on iii
The objective of the Rachel well was quite simple.
" every sand encountered under the regional seal charged with oil"
This was the Pyrex scenario where Des could visit Ninky and Elaine and Anna with great confidence and a commercial oil discovery behind them.
This has not happened. Several sands are not charged. We have adjusted our maturity depth model and started to use faults close to the basin margin main fault as an excuse or reason for the failure of the geological model.
It would seem there is some sense in this, the sidetrack is not a dry hole IMHO. It has encountered Kath. Kath is the smallest of the named eastern basin margin fans and has a P50 of 29mmbs. Personally I take that number as a guide, could easily be double or half. Important in the short term as DES need a commercial find, but significant also in proving the geological model.
If Kath has oil and Rachel doesn't what have we learned? Can the failure of Rachel be dismissed by faulting and maturity issues? Most significantly what does this suggest about Elaine, Ninky, Anna etc. These prospects are within the Barremian, which fans are likely to be charged? Which can we rule out?
The story will be in the telling. The next RNS could be upbeat and market pleasing or another black Monday.
now for the bonus ball. The largest opportunity within the NENFB fans surrounds migration vertically through the late Cretaceous and Jurassic fans. The sidetrack is the first 2010 well to start looking at what happens at the base of the Barremian mature zone. What happens when the mature oil source rock meets mature Valanginian gas source.
The ideal scenario for me at least, is that the Valanginian gas displaces some of the Barremian oil in the lowest Barremian fans providing a gas cap driving mechanism helping flow and maximizing recovery factors. On a P50 of 29mmbs this could be key in commerciality decisions if recovery was simple and 60% say.
The second ideal scenario is if our Valanginian gas can displace the oil from the Barremian into the late Cretaceous fans e.g. Ruth Jenny and Emma. time will tell concerning the viability of this hypothesis, but Rachel will provide some clues IMHO.
finally, We went to Rachel to find the key. IMHO we have found more clues but no key, we can be more confident that the key exists and that when we do find it the treasure will be extensive. This may and possibly should be market pleasing.
My plea to DES BOD is to forget the jaunt to Jacinta. A second side track or preferably a trip to Ninky or Elaine to find the blinking key!!!
Exciting, frustrating, nervous times ahead DES fans. It was ever thus!
cynic
- 30 Oct 2010 13:15
- 5336 of 6492
if i read that correctly, my short on DES (and FOGL) is looking ever more the correct call
gibby
- 30 Oct 2010 13:55
- 5337 of 6492
marky - good post
cycnic - most likely yes - the drinks are on you it appears!! good call if so
bit of news on des - scroll down the link a bit to find des - nothing we dont already know to be honest - and a summary of other oiler status for nov. - probably be seen by most already: http://www.smallcapnews.co.uk/article/Wells_to_watch_in_November/8709.aspx
markymar
- 30 Oct 2010 13:57
- 5338 of 6492
http://www.desireplc.co.uk/technical_economics.php
So best case scenario for Desire as I see it is that Kath has encountered Hydrocarbons.but how much is the question. Desire say Kath holds potentially 29 million barrels.
http://www.desireplc.co.uk/technical_volumetrics.php
She will have to hold about 40 million barrels plus for it to be economical and to be classed as a success which I cant see.
Could be all wrong come the RNS but I cant see a plus side on this at the moment am not trying to de ramp Desire as I am a Desire man all the way through I am just chucking some ideas about.
required field
- 30 Oct 2010 15:43
- 5339 of 6492
Cynic, Gibby ....have you read that ?....if they find some oil...or 30 million or so barrels in gas or oil form....it could be commercial...which means a surge on monday morning not a drop....
cynic
- 30 Oct 2010 15:46
- 5340 of 6492
i do not believe that anything much under 100 mbl will be commercial .... marky will comment with more authority
Marrow
- 30 Oct 2010 21:42
- 5341 of 6492
marky
des would not be incurring the cost of drilling a sidetrack with the intention of targeting borderline commercial prospects.ii have been told that sidetrack fans are similar in size to rachel primary so lots of upside if successful.we will know next week.
Proselenes
- 31 Oct 2010 02:00
- 5342 of 6492
It is possible the sidetrack has been aimed for and tagged the "Kath" prospect.
And Kath in its own right is not as big as Rachel, but it is potentially significant in size and therefore in its own right potentially commercial.
Now if they have touched on Kath and its oil bearing, will they now move the rig and drill directly into Kath from an optimum location with a vertical drill ?
Interesting, we should know in around 36 hours time.
You can see Kath interlinking with Rachel in the map below.
cynic
- 31 Oct 2010 07:20
- 5343 of 6492
every newborn has the theoretical potential to be an olympic champion or a star athlete or talented musician etc etc