markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
markymar
- 30 Oct 2010 12:55
- 5335 of 6492
I mentioned this yesterday that with Rachael been a duster and Desire side tracking in to another fan system Marlon seems to think it is Kath.even if hydrocarbon are found I would think it will be uneconomical to extract .which is bad news if you are holding Desire Shares, thought we would of got news yesterday and wondering if the gale force winds they were experiencing yesterday interrupted the logging so I guess we will all know the results on Monday.
From marlonthemonkey on iii
The objective of the Rachel well was quite simple.
" every sand encountered under the regional seal charged with oil"
This was the Pyrex scenario where Des could visit Ninky and Elaine and Anna with great confidence and a commercial oil discovery behind them.
This has not happened. Several sands are not charged. We have adjusted our maturity depth model and started to use faults close to the basin margin main fault as an excuse or reason for the failure of the geological model.
It would seem there is some sense in this, the sidetrack is not a dry hole IMHO. It has encountered Kath. Kath is the smallest of the named eastern basin margin fans and has a P50 of 29mmbs. Personally I take that number as a guide, could easily be double or half. Important in the short term as DES need a commercial find, but significant also in proving the geological model.
If Kath has oil and Rachel doesn't what have we learned? Can the failure of Rachel be dismissed by faulting and maturity issues? Most significantly what does this suggest about Elaine, Ninky, Anna etc. These prospects are within the Barremian, which fans are likely to be charged? Which can we rule out?
The story will be in the telling. The next RNS could be upbeat and market pleasing or another black Monday.
now for the bonus ball. The largest opportunity within the NENFB fans surrounds migration vertically through the late Cretaceous and Jurassic fans. The sidetrack is the first 2010 well to start looking at what happens at the base of the Barremian mature zone. What happens when the mature oil source rock meets mature Valanginian gas source.
The ideal scenario for me at least, is that the Valanginian gas displaces some of the Barremian oil in the lowest Barremian fans providing a gas cap driving mechanism helping flow and maximizing recovery factors. On a P50 of 29mmbs this could be key in commerciality decisions if recovery was simple and 60% say.
The second ideal scenario is if our Valanginian gas can displace the oil from the Barremian into the late Cretaceous fans e.g. Ruth Jenny and Emma. time will tell concerning the viability of this hypothesis, but Rachel will provide some clues IMHO.
finally, We went to Rachel to find the key. IMHO we have found more clues but no key, we can be more confident that the key exists and that when we do find it the treasure will be extensive. This may and possibly should be market pleasing.
My plea to DES BOD is to forget the jaunt to Jacinta. A second side track or preferably a trip to Ninky or Elaine to find the blinking key!!!
Exciting, frustrating, nervous times ahead DES fans. It was ever thus!
cynic
- 30 Oct 2010 13:15
- 5336 of 6492
if i read that correctly, my short on DES (and FOGL) is looking ever more the correct call
gibby
- 30 Oct 2010 13:55
- 5337 of 6492
marky - good post
cycnic - most likely yes - the drinks are on you it appears!! good call if so
bit of news on des - scroll down the link a bit to find des - nothing we dont already know to be honest - and a summary of other oiler status for nov. - probably be seen by most already: http://www.smallcapnews.co.uk/article/Wells_to_watch_in_November/8709.aspx
markymar
- 30 Oct 2010 13:57
- 5338 of 6492
http://www.desireplc.co.uk/technical_economics.php
So best case scenario for Desire as I see it is that Kath has encountered Hydrocarbons.but how much is the question. Desire say Kath holds potentially 29 million barrels.
http://www.desireplc.co.uk/technical_volumetrics.php
She will have to hold about 40 million barrels plus for it to be economical and to be classed as a success which I cant see.
Could be all wrong come the RNS but I cant see a plus side on this at the moment am not trying to de ramp Desire as I am a Desire man all the way through I am just chucking some ideas about.
required field
- 30 Oct 2010 15:43
- 5339 of 6492
Cynic, Gibby ....have you read that ?....if they find some oil...or 30 million or so barrels in gas or oil form....it could be commercial...which means a surge on monday morning not a drop....
cynic
- 30 Oct 2010 15:46
- 5340 of 6492
i do not believe that anything much under 100 mbl will be commercial .... marky will comment with more authority
Marrow
- 30 Oct 2010 21:42
- 5341 of 6492
marky
des would not be incurring the cost of drilling a sidetrack with the intention of targeting borderline commercial prospects.ii have been told that sidetrack fans are similar in size to rachel primary so lots of upside if successful.we will know next week.
Proselenes
- 31 Oct 2010 02:00
- 5342 of 6492
It is possible the sidetrack has been aimed for and tagged the "Kath" prospect.
And Kath in its own right is not as big as Rachel, but it is potentially significant in size and therefore in its own right potentially commercial.
Now if they have touched on Kath and its oil bearing, will they now move the rig and drill directly into Kath from an optimum location with a vertical drill ?
Interesting, we should know in around 36 hours time.
You can see Kath interlinking with Rachel in the map below.
cynic
- 31 Oct 2010 07:20
- 5343 of 6492
every newborn has the theoretical potential to be an olympic champion or a star athlete or talented musician etc etc
aldwickk
- 31 Oct 2010 08:03
- 5344 of 6492
That's wrong cynic , it has to be in your genetic make-up , has the late comic George Burn's said when asked aged 96 how was it he still had a active sex life , said it was his gene's ..... he never wore them to tight.
HARRYCAT
- 31 Oct 2010 12:20
- 5345 of 6492
Anything interesting in the Sunday papers on the subject of FI oilies?
Nothing on the Sunday Times website.
Proselenes
- 31 Oct 2010 13:42
- 5346 of 6492
Should not be, you can only write its bad so many times, then readers get bored and people know you have an agenda, gives the game away.
This weekend is all about the BS story of "Rare Earth".
cynic
- 31 Oct 2010 14:42
- 5347 of 6492
i'm sure you meant to write, "you can only write it's GOOD so many times, then readers get bored and people know you have an agenda, gives the game away"
HARRYCAT
- 31 Oct 2010 17:59
- 5348 of 6492
So nothing leaked out to The Press over the w/e! Will see you all here at 07.00 hrs GMT on monday. Looks to be an interesting week with lots happening both here & the U.S.
required field
- 31 Oct 2010 18:37
- 5349 of 6492
I think that it will be a dud with an optimistic outlook or a success with a pessimistic view !.
dealerdear
- 31 Oct 2010 19:18
- 5350 of 6492
People seem to forget that the share price in the short term does not necessarily reflect a non/commercial find.
If for example they say they have found oil which they are analysing, irrespective whether it turns out eventually to be commercial or not, I'd expect the sp to rise big time if only because of what it may mean for other prospects and is therefore a short-term play.
required field
- 01 Nov 2010 07:13
- 5351 of 6492
Where's the rns ?....
skinny
- 01 Nov 2010 07:21
- 5352 of 6492
Drilling Update
Desire Petroleum plc (DES:AIM), the oil and gas company wholly focussed on the
North Falkland Basin, wishes to provide an operational update on the 14/15-1Z
sidetrack well on the Rachel prospect.
Due to wellbore stability issues through the deviated section of the wellbore
(forty degree hole inclination) it was not possible to reach the target depths
in the first wireline logging run. The hole is now being cleaned out prior to
making a further attempt.
A further update will be provided in due course.
cynic
- 01 Nov 2010 07:22
- 5353 of 6492
.
gibby
- 01 Nov 2010 07:35
- 5354 of 6492
which way do we go - caza had similar as did others due to high pressure gas / oil apparently - is it due to high pressure oil or soft structure / both?? lol
interesting day ahead!
Drilling Update
Desire Petroleum plc (DES:AIM), the oil and gas company wholly focussed on the North Falkland Basin, wishes to provide an operational update on the 14/15-1Z sidetrack well on the Rachel prospect.
Due to wellbore stability issues through the deviated section of the wellbore (forty degree hole inclination) it was not possible to reach the target depths in the first wireline logging run. The hole is now being cleaned out prior to making a further attempt.
A further update will be provided in due course.