http://news.sky.com/story/1395057/research-ukip-surge-wont-deliver-many-seats
Research: UKIP Surge Won't Deliver Many Seats
UKIP will struggle to convert its recent surge in support into a sizeable number of MPs at the General Election, new research suggests.
The Plymouth University analysis also says the Liberal Democrats could confound plummeting poll ratings and avoid the Parliamentary catastrophe some are predicting.
The research found that while Nigel Farage's party is winning a lot more votes, Nick Clegg's is much more effective at converting them into seats.
UKIP will get more support on May 7 but will end up finishing second behind the main parties in a large number of constituencies, it concluded.
Researchers examined the votes cast by over one and a half million electors in more than 1,000 local council by-elections since the 2010 general election.
Since its impressive showing at the 2013 local elections, UKIP candidates have contested 346 council by-elections, winning just 21 and coming second 150 times.
By contrast, despite garnering far fewer votes than UKIP, the Lib Dems have won more than twice as many seats - 53 from 318 contests.
Latest polls put support for Mr Clegg's party in single figures and predict they could lose at least 34 of their 57 MPs.
However, the Plymouth University data shows the party's national vote share is estimated at 14%, about six points higher than the pollsters' average.
Professor Michael Thrasher, of Plymouth University, said: "Support for the Liberal Democrats is 10 points lower than its 2010 vote and indicates losses of 17 parliamentary seats.
"But that situation is a lot better than if the polls are right.
"The Liberal Democrats have proved more successful than a small party should be under Britain's first-past-the-post system precisely because its support is concentrated in some areas.
"Relatively speaking, UKIP's support is evenly spread.
"This evidence points to UKIP doing well enough to win at best a handful of seats in 2015, but at the same time garnering enough votes to finish as runner-up in scores of constituencies."