cynic
- 09 Jan 2007 20:41
- 538 of 3050
in fact i would rather have 20 dma, but for some reason the chart system here does not allow it ..... relevance is that it tends to indicate (short term) trends .... you will often find that it provides a support (or resistance), so if it is broken and one has a decent profit, then it may be wise to take it, if you are a trader .... conversely, the price may well bounce off that level .... have a look at the chart above and you will see what i mean
overall, in my very amateurish way, i am trying to determine trend, and that is what will often influence my own decisions .... occasionally i am right!
goldfinger
- 09 Jan 2007 23:08
- 539 of 3050
I think Cynic as done very well in this case.
Tomorrow I could and probably will be proved wrong, but at least the guy as the balls to say 'yes this is enough' and im taking a well deserved profit.
Thats if I have read him properly????????????????????
cynic
- 10 Jan 2007 07:11
- 540 of 3050
thanks goldfinger, though whether gambling on the stockmarket and making a profit, calling such well-deserved is open to a very intersting moral debate!
seawallwalker
- 10 Jan 2007 07:22
- 541 of 3050
cynic you read these charts better than me!
Well done
I must do more, I've got the software, I tend to study the minute by minute trades for short term gain especially the bot trades.
They can be a good indicator.
cynic
- 10 Jan 2007 07:23
- 542 of 3050
i don't and confess my interpretations are amateur in the extreme
fortitude18
- 10 Jan 2007 08:10
- 543 of 3050
stick to the fundamentals. charts for a stock that was floated in August is surely a complete waste of time. the trend is definitely up and not down and with more good news to come this will be ranging higher in 2007
imo
f18
cynic
- 10 Jan 2007 15:53
- 544 of 3050
fortitude ..... while i don't disagree with you long term, and even have some sympathy with your view re charts on new issues, i still think SOLA are due for a (sharp?) correction ...... perhaps i'm wrong but for sure i won't regret having banked a profit half as much as i would rue my greed if i am right.
by the way, there are no real fundamentals for SOLA, for the very reason you mention ..... they have no history
fortitude18
- 10 Jan 2007 23:12
- 545 of 3050
the fundamentals are going forward not looking backwards. Suntech, Motech, BP Solar do not place vital wafer orders with 'any old' company esp when their own production capacity depends on the delivery of quality on time and on budget. The company itself was floated in August but has been trading since 2005. With the next 2 years output already pre-sold and with contracts signed to be announced I cannot see another company that shows superb earnings visibility. There are surprises round the corner with this company. Moreover, it is a common fallacy that just because a stock as risen by multiples in a short space of time it as to necessarily fall back. SOLA rose to over 500p and corrected back to 395P..a fall of over 20% in a week! That is a correction of the highest magnitude. We are trading in a range of 450-500p with substantial inst. buying in this range. Why? Because institutions know they are buying substantial earnings going forward. In 12 months time the multiple will be lower than its is now.
If you had adopted your approach one would have sold MIcrosoft, Oracle, Cisco even before they had started to appreciate in real value..
the 'other site' provides insights that this thread sadly lacks unfortunately..
f18
cynic
- 11 Jan 2007 08:31
- 546 of 3050
F18 .... i too am a great believer in following trend .... however, i am a trader at heart and therefore one is not just or even necessarily looking at long term outlook ..... institutions have to have a totally different outlook from most PIs, so it is not quite fair to link them ..... to revert ... i know from my own days of following Cisco, that that was pretty volatile ...... i am sure that even you would admit that, no matter how "good" the stock, it does not rise in a straight line any more than a "bad" one falls .... with regard to SOLA, having been alerted to it in the first place by my good friend Soul*, i thoroughly concur that in the long or even short/medium term it is a very good stock ...... nevertheless, my own view is that sp now needs a breather and perhaps even a correction before hopefully moving ahead again.
cynic
- 11 Jan 2007 12:10
- 547 of 3050
not such a dumb call of mine at the moment ...... watch +/-433 which is 25 dma mark for bounce or break ..... graph line has currently flattened off at that sort of level ...... unless market misbehaves, slightly or even somewhat shorter odds of a bounce from that level than a downward break.
goldfinger
- 11 Jan 2007 13:13
- 548 of 3050
Looks like you were right Cynic.
cynic
- 11 Jan 2007 13:52
- 549 of 3050
not yet ..... wait n watch ..... just followed by gut feeling for a change
HARRYCAT
- 11 Jan 2007 14:20
- 550 of 3050
Might also be partly due to BoE increase in base rate at noon.
433p would be a good buy if the sp then bounces to +/- 480p again.
hlyeo98
- 11 Jan 2007 14:31
- 552 of 3050
I will watch, cynic. Agree with u
fortitude18
- 11 Jan 2007 16:01
- 553 of 3050
don't get this chart nonsense with SOLA. Institutions are buying on fundamentals not on technicals.. an upward price trend, yes but price falls are seen as buying opportunities not reasons to short..
wdik
f18
fortitude18
- 11 Jan 2007 16:20
- 555 of 3050
IMO there are those astute investors who realise that SOLA are in an unique position. Motech and Solarfun's ability to expand their own productive capacity depends on their ability to source and procure sufficient quantities of wafers from a reliable source. Renesola is that source. Renesola also have developed a unique business model which provides them with a low risk method of generating huge profits by sourcing their own silicon from scrap sources and from their OWN CUSTOMERS! its just too brilliant for words. The key to a profitable solar production company is access to a long term and reliable supply of polysilicon. Renesola as that in spades and thats why the market as bid the stock to such a level.
Reckon the market will be offering SOLA out at a fiver on new contract announcements due very soon and with FY06 results out back-end Feb then? well, who knows
F18
cynic
- 11 Jan 2007 16:33
- 556 of 3050
did i say short? ..... no i didn't ...... did i say i would almost certainly buy on weakness .... yes i did ...... so please stop jumping up and down and read properly
HARRYCAT
- 11 Jan 2007 22:46
- 557 of 3050
Am I right in saying that the product is good quality & in great demand & the marketing without fault.
The grey area is the fact that many investors or analysts are not happy with accounting procedures in the Far East & therefore the figures presented to us are not necessarily accurate.
Hence the wisdom, imo, of not being too greedy & taking profit when the sp falters.