18th October 2007 : Leadcom voted "AIM International Company of the Year for 2007"




Main Web Site : http://www.leadcom-is.com/

Investor Relations Email : investorsinfo@leadcom-is.com

Just broke through 200 MDA, looking good!

silvermede---------I believe that's usually a bullish sign, I certainly hope so.
2517

new chart for you .... shows 50 and 200 dma ...... old 5 year chart is also useful ref - see post 487 .... actually for some reason only shows 18 months, which i guess is company's life

Well, no real big trades gone through, which should mean that the buy orders have yet to be filled completely.

15 times current year (07) forecast equates to 85p, and that excludes lots of the BSNL potential work etc..as well it should at the moment.

For a stock putting in a CAGR of 40%, is just 15 times current year forecast too much....especially when they have access to more cash if needed through the Bond market.........I think that rating is not at all racy.

Cash in the bank earns you nothing, although it offers support to fall back on for a share price, it also shows that the company cannot grow any faster (as who would keep cash in the bank if you can grow revenues and PBT by utilising it) (or the management are too lazy to bother using the cash to grow the business and are happy to sit on it).

Leadcom can grow revenues and more importantly margins by using their available cash wisely, and hopefully once we get 2006 figures out of the way later this month, we will see in 2007 their strategy paying back handsomely imo.

Hi PapalPower,

Im really grateful for all the work and reasearch you put into
this particular stock as well as the other posts that I have seen you publish on the forum! You can make life so much easier for the novice investor. ARE you an indirect employee of Leadcom as your comments above are so convincing! lol....although I had faith in this co previous to your posts. I genuinely had faith in the prospects of this co although I cant deny your views helped tip the scales at times!!

thanks Iankn73

Iankn, no, I do not work for them, just an interested private investor. I do contact the senior management of the companies I am interested in, as that is a key part of doing your own research.

My thoughts are just that, my thoughts, and can be incorrect as well as correct, the key thing for everyone is to do their own research and be happy, on their own, with their investment strategy. I'll post whatever links, comments or views I can get hold off, as it does help others doing their research.

Positive times ahead I hope, lets see what the next two weeks brings !

Heres hoping LEAD is finally moving in the right direction! Have a good weekend PapalPower.

Thanks, you too.


We should really ignore the ongoing BSNL case, as it does not effect Leadcom in terms of them getting yet another year of 40% CAGR under their belts in 2007.

However, with the court case up for review again Monday (and to be frankly honest I expect no news yet again), I have been giving thought to what news could come Monday, which may have provided the buying strength from late Thursday onwards. Now it could be new contracts, but perhaps it might be related to BSNL.

However, I do not expect them to have all "kissed and made up" come Monday, after dragging this on for so long, that is not going to happen.

So what could happen, best case (and realistic), well, after consideration I would suspect what may happen is that whilst Motorola played "hardball" last time and refused to help BSNL in any way (eg allowing them to award second place to Nokia and start at least some expansion work), they may not want to "bite the hand that feeds it".....and so after making their point last time around and refusing the BSNL request, perhaps they will this time "offer an olive branch" and allow BSNL to go ahead with awarding second place to Nokia.

Now we know that Nokia are probably the most "in bed" with Leadcom of any of the suppliers, so news that Nokia can go ahead with their 40% of BSNL would be a solid boost to Leadcom IMV.

Therefore, perhaps news on Monday of a further "stay on the award" will be tempered with news that Motorola has agreed to the prior BSNL request that they can go ahead with the award of second place, and that being 40% to Nokia.

Well, it passed some time going through the scenarios anyway :) All is IMV, so DYOR !

Just added the present 2008 forecasts, which are

Forward 2008 forecasts

2008 Pre-Tax 15.1m
2008 EPS 7.66p
2008 DPS 2.27p

Therefore Altiums target price, if they retain 13 times forward, should be upgraded to 99.5p once we get the 2006 results out of the way on the 22nd Feb.



The on line buy limits getting smaller all the time, you can buy only 5000 shares now at 57.8p however you can sell 52,500 well above the bid price. Looks like they are shaking to get sellers.................

PP ------I thought Altiums target was 105p.
2517

No, they revised it some time ago from an EV based one, to a 13 times forward EPS. So presently their target is 13 times 2007 (75p) but after the 22nd this should change to 13 times 2008, which will be 99.5p...........

Good news, and possibly the reason for some stronger buying last week. L2 now up to 3 v 2 @56/58

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2007/02/15/stories/2007021501900400.htm


Bharat Matrimony

Barcelona Feb. 14

State owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) has awarded a 4 million line cellular contract to Nortel, Ericsson and Nokia at an estimated cost of $250 million. The move will enable the PSU to ease pressure on its network as its mega 60 million GSM line project is now stuck in the Courts.

Confirming the move, Mr Dayanidhi Maran, Union Communication and IT Minister, said while BSNL was capable of handling the crisis arising out of the Court case, it has now placed additional orders with the equipment vendors which had won the contract the previous time. As per the tender conditions, BSNL can give additional orders of up to 20 per cent to the existing vendors without going for a rebid.

Capacity Crunch

Mr Maran said that BSNL has a key role to play in the Indian telecom sector and it was because of the PSU that the tariffs were kept at such low levels. BSNL is facing a huge capacity crunch with its network running full capacity in most parts of the country.

The State owned telecom major was banking on the 60 million line project to plan an aggressive roll out. However, the project is now delayed by over 6 months after Motorola contested BSNL's decision to keep it out of the bidding process. Ericsson and Nokia had emerged as the two lowest bidders even as BSNL did not allow Motorola and ZTE to place their bids. However, the 4 million line contract will only allow the PSU only a marginal relief because the number of subscribers are growing at a scorching pace, which would utilise these new capacities within a matter of a few months.

The growth story is there for all to read, well done Papal, time to get in if not already for those on the sidelines IMHO

Yes steveo, it looks like the time is coming when Leadcom should start to move back to a more accurate rating, and that being 15 times current year forecast at the very least.

Just some comments from AFN posts :

February 30th - 18 Feb'07 - 19:06 - 3743 of 3746
"Confirming the move, Mr Dayanidhi Maran, Union Communication and IT Minister, said while BSNL was capable of handling the crisis arising out of the Court case, it has now placed additional orders with the equipment vendors which had won the contract the previous time. As per the tender conditions, BSNL can give additional orders of up to 20 per cent to the existing vendors without going for a rebid."

Does this mean that BSNL can award contracts of up to 20% of the delayed contract - in other words 20% of 60 million, which is 12 million? If so, could further contracts be awarded, up to another 8 million? Or have I got it wrong? If so, this would take a lot of the immediate pressure off BSNL, and mean that in terms of the legal proceedings, BSNL would fit it easier to hold out.


Sithuk - 18 Feb'07 - 22:21 - 3744 of 3746
Feb: I agree with your understanding that BSNL is going to release $12million for expansion more or less immediately. I'm not sure where you get the additional $8m from?


February 30th - 18 Feb'07 - 22:29 - 3745 of 3746
Sithuk,
I'm talking lines not dollars.
The original contract was for 60 million lines, so 20% of that is 12 million lines. A contract has just been awarded for 4 million lines, so theoretically there could be other contracts, totally another 8 million lines.


PapalPower - 19 Feb'07 - 00:24 - 3746 of 3746
Yes, Feb 30th you are correct, they can now start to release a further 20% (eg 12 million lines) of awards.
Of the original 60m the first 15m were awarded to Alcatel as part of a previous arrangement. The remaining 45m went to tender and are held up as we know in court. Now they can award a further 20% (12m lines of the original 60m).
If you go at 107 $ per line, it means that this 12m lines is worth 1,284 million dollars, and now perhaps I understand where Leadcom got there "minimum 180m$ revenue in 2007 from" given they get a percentage of that, with this 20% extra being the back up should the main 45m lines get held up and fall into late 07/2008/2009. As of end Jan they had over 100m$ for 2007 in the bag, with an outlook of 600m$.

The now historic figures for 2006 will be reported late Feb 2007 (based on 1.96 X rate)

2006 Sales 70.79m
2006 Pre-Tax 8.55m
2006 EPS 4.60p
2006 DPS 0.86p
NAV 21.8p


Current Year 2007 forecasts

2007 Sales 93.75m
2007 Pre-Tax 11.82m
2007 EPS 5.67p
2007 DPS 1.15p
NAV 28.2p


Forward 2008 forecasts

2008 Sales 119.96m
2008 Pre-Tax 15.16m
2008 EPS 7.66p
2008 DPS 2.27p
NAV 36.71p


On Line Limits

Buy 10K at 58.75

Sell 75K @57.5


L2 3 v 1 @57/59 after the last moves up.


Looks like the 75K block buyer is back for more.

With thanks to another, I now have an English copy the Midroog A3 credit rating report for Leadcom from Dec 06. It is very detailed and thorough (as you'd expect), and to get through that with an A3 rating is very impressive.

If anyone wants a copy, then please let me know.

On line limits now :

Buy 7.5K @ 59.63p

Sell 75K @ 58p


L2 is now 5 v 4 @57/60


So you can take it the buyer wants more..........

For those averse to email, I have hopefully put the Midroog Dec 06 A3 rating file as per the Bond Issue on e-snips, and you can download from the link below....

http://www.esnips.com/web/LeadcomInfo

It is very throrough, as you'd expect, and it reads well and ends well for Leadcom to get an A3 rating.

The Unterberg BUY note and 95p target is also in the same folder as the post above.