The hcl looks likely to come into operation over the next few months, will this improve the share price or will we have to wait for an actual PSA before any increase takes place? It looks like the UK and the US will wait until the HCL is in place first before they decide to start the pull out. I have also heard news that the contracts signed during the Saddam regime are now definitely going to be honoured. I`m not sure if this includes PET as there seems to be some doubt as to whether they qualify as their agreement wasn`t signed off by Saddam. A Swiss company has announced that they expect to be producing 200,000 barrels/pd by 2009 from their PSA with the Kurds. They have struck oil first time and have five more drills left to complete their programme. Nice if PET were in that position! Our time will come though, just a matter of hanging on in there!!

risk averse i am not, or i would not have tidied up very nicely on Dow this evening (yet again!) .... indeed if i were risk-averse, i would not dabble in stocks and shares! ..... suggest you research khazakhstan .... as for VOG, until its demise, the world and his wife thought it was going to be the next BP! ..... i am sure you were really clever and perceptive and shorted VOG at 246 and still hold that position? ...... no? .... why is that?

by the way, never be afraid to take profits nor to cut losses .... that, especially the latter, is the real way to make money.

btw, this .... "cheap to extract therefore big risks of finding oil in the first place do not apply" is total non seq!

Oh dear......................

I don't short.Did trade VOG banking quick profits.Posted timely warnings on thread too;in fact several warnings.

Agree no harm or fear in bank profits and cut losses. Let the trend be your friend...run your profits.......bank profits too early miss potentially higher rewards.

Point is highlighted PET @ 66p for anyone to consider DYOR.Subsequently anyone could have purchased @ 60.5p like I did or in fact available slightly less sub 60p.

Take care.All the best.

regards

lex:;o)

btw Permission to monitor watch 20k @ 60.5p have a laugh or two at my expence.Meet back here in a years time.

You big fish,me small fish.Size doesn't bother me.% rises the same irrespective of size.

something you didn't pick up on ...... cynic doesn't know his stan from his oliver! ..... biggest reserves of anywhere other than perhaps the arctic are in Turkmenistan NOT Khaz!!

and i am no big investor either, though that is always a matter of degree

Cynic,

As posted advfn my one and only 100% researched oil play from February 2007 is PET.My interest is solely in Iraq.Followed PET for several years.Prefer companies I know.

Decided 2007 year to be invested.First purchase @ 70p.On Jordan PSA news rose 78p-79p,subsequently dropped as low as 55p-59p.Strategy ignore stop loss come trailing stop losses.

Genuinely beleive money to made in PET.

You cud have posted "Berkastan" and I wouldn't have picked up on it.lol

Best Wishes

lex;o)

no probs m8! ..... i almost prefer companies i don't know, though glad to see MPH (which i do) taking a well-deserved tumble

Cynic,

ooh,comment bit of a stomach blow.Hands up papers losses in MPH more than made up for by PET.

Before you mention CCT bought 76p and added core holding @ 100p rode CCT all the way up to 207p/210p and all the way down 145p-150p where MPH is now!

Where CCT goes MPH follows.CCT 175p-178p

Strategy late 2006 onwards one of long term hold not trade any.In hindsight bank profits and buy back cheaper would 'ave been better.Target price CCT 250p;MPH 240p both pay small divi ;o)

Cynic,

Let's see how PET trades.

10k bought @ 87.6p this morning total 8,860.10 gross - your fantasy portfolio.

At close @ 94p worth 9,387.50 net. profit = 527.40 net.+5.95% profit in one day.

p.s if day trading profit possible @ 97p bid = 827.40 net.+9.33% profit in one day.

In my humble opinion PET long term hold for highest gains - that "feeling grows & grows...."

My posts pre-open today one could say have been proven "timely." For an alternative contrarian view see post below-you did bring MPH into it.LOL ;o)

DOW 13468.78 +286.87

cynic - 04 Aug 2007 09:26 - 24 of 59
for would-be investors, there will be plenty of time to get in ...... sp is surely rushing upwards on the hype of the news laws being enacted rather than on any discovery ...... furthermore, if the markets remain unsettled for the next month or two as is a racing certainty or even fall quite substantially (my feeling) then sp will retrace sharply (along with many many others)

Have you two thought of exchanging phone numbers, (he says in a cynical way!)

seawallwalker, in a byegone age cud have been pistols at dawn.These days for some possibly handbags..... lol

IF Cynic had listened to me, 827.40 profits there for the taking on day trade.More long term hold.

Seriously i'm quite laid back.Posts on my part are genuine.Readers can take it or leave it .

Don't mind Cynic's being cynical or for that matter contrarian.Like a bit of humour & leg pull from time to time.

Don't trust anyone or everything you read.DYOR

On PET I don't trust Cynic.Time will tell.Today for instance and tomorrow...............lol

Purpose of bb is to highlight companies & personal opinions in order to doing further personal research .

Puts me money where my mouth is.Will update on PET.

Bottom line on my take:PET will make money.Buy low,sell high.aimvho.DYOR.

regards

lex;o)

sorry Lex .... did not realise you held MPH, though the comment i made about it was fair enough.

for myself, will certainly keep watching PET and if you are all really unlucky, will get on board one day ..... however, have had my fingers burnt by more that one E&P so am happy to saty with PMO, PFC and HAWK in oil related stocks + POG in gold ...... and own up to still holding small stakes in both GOO and MCR

Cynic, no offence taken. My comment was light-hearted as I can see the funny side.Talking of which PET up again this morning.Intra day highs 101p-104p fallen back 100p-101p.Though PET better buy when first mentioned 60-70p,still cheap methinks.

Once psychological 100p barrier broken next target becomes 110p.

Volumes UK & GSE total over 904k and not even mid-day.

Happy with progress and do not mind consolidation around 100p.

Keep lucky

anyone see Channel 4 news about Iraq and oil, half hour ago..Iraq parliament gone on hols...an unofficial law passed for foreign oil companies to explore.
However its not recognised by government and will be months before it gets passed and may even be reviewed by government when they reconvene

I think I will jump ship early Wednesday

Jumped ship Monday (97p), held since 38p, will get back in if under 50p, laugh if you like but as far as I can see there is no news, only rumour and speculation, can see this going big but only when war over, contracts awarded etc etc, till then I think it will drift down.

pinechris---------Only natural to secure some profits well done, I bought @ 42p and perhaps I should do the same (been too greedy in the past on PET) however have held over 3 years and whilst your comments above may well be right, if you buy in after the war is over and contracts awarded then you almost certainly will be paying a price far in excess of their current sp. IMO the floor is now around 60-65p. BWDIK.
2517

it cannot possibly be wrong to top-slice at the very least ...... even relative peace in iraq is not likely any time soon, let alone the awarding of contracts and the actual discovery of a commercial well or two ...... it follows that PET's sp will remain hostage to rumour into the far distant future

6 Aug 2007 fantasy portfolio

10k bought @ 87.6p total 8,860.10 gross - .

Net paper profit at closing prices = 327.40


Oh ye of little faith and understanding.Don't mind being the only one KTF.Keep holding.

Cynic,so that can compare notes,please let me what 'other fish' you are into?

you have no e-mail .... 24 asst'd stocks at present

In market mayhem,PET stood up very well on friday.Buyers moved in 89p-91.75p.

100michael - 10 Aug'07 - 10:39 - 90060 of 90291

This is the opportunity of a lifetime - staring us all in the face, PET have an unprecedented opportunity, work effort exactly right over last 9 years, strong relationships built, strong capable leaders at the top, proved not to be just there to take but to give something back to the people of Iraq, diplomats, and rightly so, PET have helped train local people and have invested and delivered aid to the needy over last 9 years,flying in essential baby food and medical supplies etc, sponsoring local community, want to and are working with the Iraqi people, prepared to live in Iraq, walking the walk, ready to hit the ground running at a moments notice, right there on the ground - not just prepared to study seismics for the next few years from the safety of overseas boardrooms, taking risks right now side by side with the Iraqi people, the foundations are built, the trust is being won, the directors are genuine, commited people - essential in this situation, the HCL will soon pass, our PET will be ready, and unless you are accumulating a decent holding you will be kicking yourselves, buy when everyone else is selling, greed when everyone else is fearful, if you prefer, or average up, or down...it doesn't really matter, the point is this might be THE investment of your lifetime...I can not believe people are prepared to risk trading in and out of this stock, and as for the fearful ones selling, they obviously have not done their homework on PET, or are using funds they really should not be using as this is a long term play, and the tight holders are fortunate indeed to have discovered this company - buy at any price imho/pdyor

Note: oil in the ground has a value pre-production.

kdickson - 15 May'07 - 12:45 - 77730 of 90291


All this talk of 5 per share makes me think it's time for a 'fag packet' calculation to keep us focussed on the massive potential of PET.

Does anyone remember an ADVFN poster named edgein who was an O&G guru who used to post on the EME/VOG threads. The following part post were his thoughts on one method he used to value oil in the ground:-

The other method I use which you might prefer and I think is less complicated but just a rough guide:
Use the current oil price to work out the current Net Present Value of the oil reserves of a co. Take 10% of that value as the value of oil in the ground and that gives a present value based on the current market oil. A simplier and much quicker system to use. I personally rarely use PE to calculate the value of an oil stock My system tends to be highly conservative, but then again I'm rarely disappointed and regularly in profit.

Im no expert on valuing oil companies but, based on the above, does anyone majorly disagree with the sort of share price achievable in my calcualtions below?

Petrels presentation said Block 6 has 3 to 5 billion barrel potential.

Lets say 4 billion barrels at $55 = $2,200 billion
Divide by 2 to get into pounds = 1,100 billion
Take 10% as value of oil in ground = 110 billion
Take 20% as PSA share = 2,200 million
Split 3 ways (Itochu/Makman/PET) = 740 million each (approx)
Divide by 74 million shares = 10 /share (74m mentioned in presentation)

(Mmmm, now whos always predicted 10 share price!?)

i.e. for every 1 billion barrels, value to PETs share price for oil in the ground is 2.50

Now, toting up PETs potential contracts:-
Halfaya 10 billion barrels
S&L (deeper levels) 2 bbls (say)
Merjan 0.75 bbls
Block 6 4 bbls
TOTAL = 16.75 billion barrels at 2.50 per bbls = oil in ground price of 40 + (excludes East Safawi as well!).