I have been a holder of this stock for the past 8 months and intent to hold for at least two years to gain the maximum CGT relief as its AIM listed.

I have topped up my holding recently as TPA looks well undervalued to me at the current price of 19.5p.

Reasons as follows:

2004 results (due in March) should show 85% growth on 2003 - EPS of 1.3p. This will give a historic PE of 15 at the current price.

Estimates for 2005 indicate a further 46% growth in earnings to 1.9p which could, IMO, be conservative considering the impact of the big contracts signed in 2004 are yet to fully kick in. The PE estimate is only 10.26 for 2005 - way too low IMO for a growth company.

2006 estimates are for 2.4p of EPS (PE 8.1) - this is why I am holding for at least 2 years - the shares should double to 40p if things stay on track and CGT will be only 5 or 10% with the taper relief.

The earnings have high visibility and should be rated as such - most contracts are signed for 3 or 5 years plus with a good chance of repeat business, contract extensions etc.

Strong cash generation paying off debt for aquisitions.

Contracts with big players such as Virgin, Matalan, BAA, BMI Healthcare and Dixons.

The technology division has the potential to significantly increase earnings which have not been considered in the earnings estimates.

TripleArc is now the 4th biggest print management provder in the UK and still growing - maybe takeover potential there.

Risks:

UK economy might go down hill adversely affecting TPA margins/contracts.
Shares are fairly illiquid and volatile.
Margins get squeezed.
Debt fairly high but being rapidly repaid.
Increased competition.

Overall I feel comfortable to hold a high percentage of my portfolio in this company - my two year timeframe should hopefully see the shares double in value baring unforseen disasters.

Website : http://www.triplearcplc.com/

Shareshark

Happy days. Sky check out AAIR

Yeh.. AAIR looks good... recovering well... might get some meself soon at these levels

Not sure what the're doing to TPA though.. The're rying their best to keep this down.. not sure why they would not want to let this go to where it should be. It's all very well for them to not know why it should go up.. it should be up anyway ! right up!?

Two huge late buys showing on my screen with a combined value of 1.5 m - anybody throw any light on this??........also purchased at .o675 at time when price was showing .0700 buy.
Thanks
Augustman

This is crazy !
the company announces the release the date of when the results will be and the sp goes down already !
have the results been issued already and the're below expectations ? or does somebody already know what they are..?

Not impressed with the silly mm games ! (but then again not surprised either, we're always getting stuffed!)

big hike in the offer this am ?

Look at start of this mail --- stock formerly loved especially by small cap fund managers but messed up big time

Now unbelievable cheap -- price to sales 0.14. --- why --- debt is 18m

However comment from aGM suggests business running free cashflow of c1.8m p.a.

All this with mkt cap 6m !!

Debt probably costing c1m p.a. So ability to pay down 1m of debt in 7 months suggest cashflow before interest payments c3m pa . If the debt gets paid down by 2m a year that's c120,000 saved on interest each year

Barring further weakness -- ie big recession the past investments that drew investors to this company at 20p a share are just about to pass into the virtuous cycle . All this excludes the chances of big orders possible with the new equipment that the managment is also alluding too

Director bought shares just over 4p back in June

Big order --- this stock is moon bound

40% up so far today --- could pause but plenty more to go for by the look of it

Broker put new target price on stock today ....... 10p

Confidant
Looks like your on your own well done nice rise today it was on my watch list.

For once -- right for the right reasons -- doesn't happen too often

Major deal signed with Betterware - 5m earnings - start of the revival me thinks

AM

Deal looks good --- 5m in t/o --not earnings -- over 2 yrs So with Mkt cap 8m not too bad

Likely to add 5% to yrly t/o leaving stock close to .15 price to sales

Risks as looked at above are mainly debt related. Shares have drifted back on a couple of real reasons

1. Cashflow
Positive at results but due to decrease in debtors -- shows the new finance guy is doing his job though --- but not ongoing. Gearing however with new business being won can be seen as a positive from a eps point of view if momentum of business sustained

2 AOL
Big AOL deal but followed by Carphone Warehouse takeover leaves concern about the contract. But there should be compensation if Carphone want to terminate but also upside if TPA are doing as good a job as Betterware believe as they could win the whole Carphone account

By no means a no-brainer but now even a cash call is likely to put a base under the stock at this level with plenty of upside if upfront capex on new deals Betterware and AOL does not blow debt out further.

Market respone a little tardy you could say

some institutional sellers by the look of it waiting for good news to see enough volume to sell as much as they can. Likely to keep stock low for now

Plus as said in interims profits from new business only likely to flow after implementation i.e next year not this

Patience is a virtue as they say

Nice little comments within the statement plus the move itself is verey comforting

patience please

Broker note still has a target price set at 10p.Always reckoned if they can restructure then there is alot of upside potential.

Trading update at EGM Said in line. But cash position key

Said net debt 15m -- same as at interims --- this I think is v positive as must be some upfront costs expenditure into AOL and Betterware deals. Suggesting underyling business running cashflow positive --- this should improve further as AOL contract win works through early stage of program

AOL UK taken over by Carphone Warehouse but contract still seems fine plus if the co any good could impress CPW. Another contract would be nice which in a way capital restructuring is hinting at. But patience for results I think

CLearly cheap if cashflows can start paying off debt -- business growth needs only to be small scale but promises some larger developments

Shareshark started this thread with much expectation of increasing sp...(over 2005-6-7) and confident has followed a similar theme. . . . so it must come as a bit of a blow to see 20p-ish now nearly into the 90% club.
-What went wrong?
Any ideas? - and importantly what are the execs doing about it ? (other than sitting on their hands).
I understand only that this is a printing business and has/had some top-names as customers . . . . of course supplying print is vary competitive with digital imaging making it possible to have the printing done overseas with identical quality.
Is that what's befallen TripleArc?
I hold StIves [SIV](=another printer) which has gained some strength after a fall roughly similar time-scale, (although not so much, as they print Harry Potter!).

hangon

Basically hang on This v small co is over leveraged if operations really run this will turn positive. Can the co do this before interest rates rise to high difficult to say

But operationally in good shape plus recent director purchase adds to positive outlook as unlikely to buy if co about to go under. In my view co not priced as going concern but it is. New management from last year seem to be tackling problems -- debt held despite likely increase in working cap following AOL deal.

Think I've said all along this one will require patience plent y of institutions in with big losses wating to exit on any vol

Patience will be rewarded buy the dips -- upside to 12p+ --- downside 3p i.e to zero