markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
cynic
- 02 Nov 2010 17:29
- 5429 of 6492
not really gibby - FOGL short is well in the money; DES short is fractionally positive; RKH long is slightly out of the money .... CFDs have no time constraints, so can continue to run as i choose for as long as i choose, and nor have i exactly bet my shirt on any of the above
ptholden
- 02 Nov 2010 17:55
- 5430 of 6492
Well, seems that my 'pennyworth' post last night was quite accurate.
I find it curious posters become entrenched in their positions / opinions without really evaluating news / data as it becomes available.
As far as DES is concerned, it's really a matter of having funds to keep drilling until they hit a resevoir, at which point, raising money will become relatively easy. Whilst they have yet to hit the jackpot, both wells have found oil shows and gas, RKH have their first hit. The oil is there and it's only a matter of time before DES are successful. Eventually the geology of the basin will be understood and further drills will have a much higher COS. It's very early days and there is probably an argument for buying DES now, sticking them in a SIPP and coming baci in 5 years.
required field
- 02 Nov 2010 20:13
- 5431 of 6492
Not me.....
gibby
- 02 Nov 2010 20:26
- 5432 of 6492
cynic - i see - not surprised with fogl and the no constraints would be very helpful here! interesting stuff
cynic
- 02 Nov 2010 21:04
- 5433 of 6492
as i was playing golf, i've no idea of any spike ... please enlighten, merely out of curiosity
ptholden
- 02 Nov 2010 22:18
- 5434 of 6492
Was using a delayed chart feed this morning and it appeared to spike to 130 at open, just checked Sharescope and no such spike happened, apologies.
Proselenes
- 02 Nov 2010 23:50
- 5435 of 6492
Ultimately they drilled the Rachel vertical, found good reservoir and no oil. They had already intimated at the AGM about a possible sidetrack.
So, a sidetrack came to go into lower fans, and there is oil in them. Obviously they were limited in where they could put a sidetrack into by the location of the original vertical.
So now they can drill a new vertical in a different location to target those same lower fans but in an updip location. If the downdip has oil shows then there is a good chance the updip location of the lower fans will hold an accumulation of oil.
This is why the DES price has been strong, as the CoS has risen.
You have "no oil" only until you find some. You can go from zero to hero with one strike.
For DES they know Rockhopper has a large commercial find in Sea Lion not very far away, and by Sea Lion going into production it means that small finds in nearby locations are commercial by tie backs to the main Sea Lion production. As it stands now with Sea Lion quite simply likely to be a "giant", it makes smaller 50 million barrel and over finds around the periphery of Sea Lion "commercial" in size.
With a raised CoS I do not think shorts will run positions into Rachel-2 results, too much risk.
However, should Rachel-2 fail then there could be a rather large drop down as DES will likely now have just 1 drill left (Jacinta) before the rig is passed back to Rockhopper, and Jacinta is very high risk, even more so with the failure of Ernest earlier.
I do not hold DES and have not for some time, but would buy some IF the Rachel-2 well does strike a reasonable size accumulation of oil.
cynic
- 03 Nov 2010 07:53
- 5436 of 6492
and just WHY should DES have a greater chance of success with their next well? ..... the odds remain much the same as they were previously
Proselenes
- 03 Nov 2010 08:08
- 5437 of 6492
LOL.
Why are they the same ? Are you unable to read.
Firstly, Rachel-1 proved that there is an effective seal via a fault laterally, thats why nice sandstone but no oil.
Rachel sidetrack proved there is oil on the other side of the fault, in sandstone but what is likely to be at the flank.
All they do now is move the rig to an updip location on the side of the fault where there are oil shows in the lower fans and drill that.
You have lateral seal, sandstone reservoir, oil shows which greatly derisk an up dip drill now on those same sandstones.
Much greater Chance of Success now that previously, although still not a sure thing, but much higher than before.
cynic
- 03 Nov 2010 08:15
- 5438 of 6492
much the same, is what i wrote and i stand by that ..... everyone knows there is a 6 on a die (dice is plural!), but the chances of throwing it remain the same with each throw.
Proselenes
- 03 Nov 2010 08:33
- 5439 of 6492
Shorters appear to be running scared now.
No bravado ?
No 50p target prices ?
No deramping ?
Quite funny really. I do not hold DES and will wait for good news before buying, but I do find it hilarious how this thread gets from time to time. There is real information out there, but people just shoot from the hip with all sorts of nonsense posts most of the time.
HARRYCAT
- 03 Nov 2010 08:37
- 5440 of 6492
Everyone has the right to express their opinion, regardless of whether it opposes or supports yours.
required field
- 03 Nov 2010 08:39
- 5441 of 6492
If they come up with an uncommercial well : 50p.....how's that for you ?...
Proselenes
- 03 Nov 2010 08:42
- 5442 of 6492
Harry, of course they can, I am just stating how funny it is at times with the nonsensical stuff some come out with, when they clearly have no actual idea of the information and are simply shooting from the hip.
hilary
- 03 Nov 2010 08:43
- 5443 of 6492
Or maybe the short sellers are devoid of emotional attachment, so have banked their profits from the recent falls, and moved on to something else until this next comes into play.
cynic
- 03 Nov 2010 08:51
- 5444 of 6492
a bear is by definition NOT emotionally attached to the stock! ...... as i have said many times, i am happily short (still) of both DES and FOGL, though long RKH
just as i think ASC is ridiculously overpriced, but have had my fingers singed for acting accordingly, so it may be that i shall be wrong on both/either DES and FOGL ...... however, for the time being i am prepared to sit and wait and watch
halifax
- 03 Nov 2010 10:20
- 5445 of 6492
cynic the Falkland Islands is rapidly becoming yesterdays story unless some "tangible discovery" is made, time to move on.
greekman
- 03 Nov 2010 10:32
- 5446 of 6492
Harrycat,
Well said, 'Everyone has the right to express their opinion, regardless of whether it opposes or supports yours.'
Why do people have to get out of their tree whenever someone posts something contrary to their views.
Cynic is asking a very straight question, 'And just WHY should DES have a greater chance of success with their next well? ..... the odds remain much the same as they were previously'.
Often people post views that make sense to themselves (because they know what they mean to say) but to others the points are not always so clear.
Sometimes I run posts past others prior to posting, and now and then they say, the meaning could be clearer.
Not taking sides, but if you have an answer then just state it without having a dig.
Only posted the above because as my knowledge of the oil business is still very limited, I know far more than I did, mainly due to contributions from many on here, and I wish this to continue.
cynic
- 03 Nov 2010 10:45
- 5447 of 6492
hali - not if one is shorting!
chav
- 03 Nov 2010 10:47
- 5448 of 6492
Rachel 2 has to have a much higher COS because it is going into a zone which the sidetrack has proved to contain at least 25m of HC's shows...