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Mediwatch - Watch them rocket in 2005 !!! (MDW)     

overgrowth - 12 May 2005 22:21

Mediwatch is a small company destined to become a much bigger fish by the time this year is out. Mediwatch are already a market leader in urological medical diagnostics equipement and are currently exporting their products throughout the UK, Canada, Europe, India and Japan. That doesn't leave much of the globe left for them to capture - until you remember the good ol' US and China. These are the two massive markets which are destined to be added to MDW's export client portfolio by the end of 2005.

The company is currently heavily undervalued. This is probably because Mediwatch's speciality is not a very glamourous business to be in as their equipment is used extensively to diagnose prostate cancer in men and other nasty urological conditions affecting both men and women. However, don't let that put you off investing in these guys. This is big business and is growing at an exponential rate as more and more people globally become health-aware as they get older.

Mediwatch normally supply their products through to global markets via distribution agreements. They already have the best of distribution partners in the well known US medical distributor CR Bard who supply Canada and Europe and GE Medical who supply Japan. The UK business is handled by Mediwatch's own dedicated sales team.

US FDA approval was gained for MDW's products at the start of last year, however a whole year of US legal wrangling meant that they were unable to seek a suitable partner for the crucial distribution agreement until the start of this year. This distribution agreement is expected by the board to have a "significant effect" on the share price so they are reluctant to give any clues as to when it will be signed, sealed and delivered. The general consensus is that this US distribution agreement will be announced in July/August. In China and Hong Kong, MDW have done things the other way round. They have set up distribution agreements with major Asian medical equipment distributors and have stock already out there waiting to sell into the markets - all they are waiting for is SDA approval (which is a "rubber stamp") from the Chinese authorities - this can take anything up to 12 months to come through and MDW applied during Autumn 2004 - so even more good news coming soon this year. Epidemiological data from British Association of Urology conference last year: On average 30-45% of all men between the age of 50 and 70 have at least one PSA test per year in the US / Italy / Australia.

If that's not enough to convince you to invest a few hard earned coppers in MDW, they are also developing a PSA stick test product (PSAWatch) which is revolutionary and causing some excitement in medical circles. This product can also be adapted (at very low cost) for a whole spectrum of medical disciplines from Cardiology to Veterinary Practice! This product is likely to be released in the next few weeks. Philip Stimpson the CEO has said that this product is going to be their "gold mine" - I'm sure it will prove to be ours too.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=MDW&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=MDW&Si

overgrowth - 15 Aug 2005 16:41 - 544 of 1497

andrewbertram2003 - please can you post a message here as I still can't seem to access your profile to send you an e-mail. You need to put your e-mail address next to "Private Messaging E-mail".

andrewbertram2003 - 16 Aug 2005 08:26 - 545 of 1497

Sorry about that Overgrowth.
My point is that MDW are burning more than they are earning. They appear not to have much cash left. Yes this USA deal may be clinched but once the price has popped up will they use the high to announce a share offer to raise funds. This will further dilute the stock and send it down again. Obviously it would be nice to catch this wave. i.e. get in and get out. I am just getting tired of companies who keep asking for funding. I'm more a medium term investor and like to see steady growth. MDW may just be a ling termer. AB

overgrowth - 16 Aug 2005 11:52 - 546 of 1497

andrew - still can't e-mail you from your profile.

MDW are very excited about the huge potential of the new point of care system PSAWatch. This was extremely well received at the BAUS conference and is expected to bring in some exceptional revenues as soon as it comes off the production line which should alleviate the need for any placements in the near future. Mediwatch have the full support of their bank and have been using the bank for medium term loans recently rather than constantly going back to the market.

Obviously the US deal will greatly enhance the power of sales and marketing of all Mediwatch products as the US is the largest market for medical diagnostics and a deal with Medtronic as a multi-billion dollar distributor will give that extra punch.

R&D is a large proportion of expenditure for a company such as MDW, however when new products (particularly PSAwatch) hit the market and the profits start rolling in, the profits will more than cover the future R&D costs.

andrewbertram2003 - 16 Aug 2005 11:55 - 547 of 1497

I'm on my bandwagin....help me here guys/gals.
Surely the fundamentals for this stock are not for a BUY?
Consolidated Balance sheet at April 2005...net 3 million.
Current share price values group at 9 million.
Sales forcast perhaps 2.5 to 3 million for year ended 30/4/2006.
Little cash left, no other assets to liquidate?
Recent news from MDW states sales up by 60%. Its in the right direction but will take another 4 to 5 years to get into profit unless major sales occur. Will the USA and other contracts increase sales greater than 60%?
Has anyone seen any forecasts on this?

Share price over last 3 months has no doubt factored in deal speculation so I can't see the market makers pushing the stock much higher?
Perhaps this would be a great PUT stock for it to real back to 5 to 6p?

views?

andrewbertram2003 - 16 Aug 2005 11:58 - 548 of 1497

OverGrowth...I posted my second message 3 mins of yours....didn't see it.

I wonder what the sensibly expected timeline on these contracts generating income (and to hit reporting) is?

overgrowth - 16 Aug 2005 12:49 - 549 of 1497

I believe that PSAwatch is due to start generating income around the end of September this year and it looks as though it has the potential to bring in more than all the other existing Mediwatch products put together. The bank loan repayments start around Feb 2006 as far as I remember, so I guess that the FD has timed those to commence when all the new income is being generated. As soon as the US deal is announced it will start generating income also.

Longer term contracts will be those for China and Hong Kong.

zscrooge - 16 Aug 2005 13:30 - 550 of 1497

og I thought it was east before west

overgrowth - 16 Aug 2005 15:24 - 551 of 1497

zscrooge - that's only what "the hangman" on advfn was guessing based on an alleged new Japanese contract being signed. However, it's true that SDA approval for selling existing products into China/Hong Kong can come through at any time soon and the distribution deals are already set up. SDA approval can take up to a year to process and it was applied for in Oct 2004 I believe. By longer term for the China/Hong Kong deals I'm talking about the markets themselves buying more and more into Westernised diagnostics as time goes on and moving away from traditional Eastern practices - hence revenue will take some time to build for these contracts as opposed to the US deal which will be an instant earner.

Given that the last report shows Medtronic as one of Mediwatch's partners, then I would guess that news of the US deal is equally as likely.

Plenty going on and lots to look forward to.

zscrooge - 16 Aug 2005 16:57 - 552 of 1497

thanks og.

robstuff - 17 Aug 2005 08:52 - 553 of 1497

drifting lower I suspect

mg - 17 Aug 2005 10:47 - 554 of 1497

Looks as if they're giving us a chance to overstock the shed ;(

Without news I suppose it was inevitable that we would see it fall back. Always difficult to use the charts with small cap stocks - but TA-wise it could be entering oversold territory.

Still giving me a good return - the only question is whether I decide to add at or around these levels.

ptholden - 17 Aug 2005 15:48 - 555 of 1497

Don't know about oversold Mike, sinking like a fookin stone is perhaps more apt!!

andysmith - 18 Aug 2005 07:12 - 556 of 1497

Nice 100K buy to mop up the sellers, lucky sod.
Easy for the bigger buyers, MM's knock price down, nervous folk take profits and in they come. Thats my hope anyway, bounce back again today or tomorrow.
Its a painstaking wait for these deals but it should be worth it.

Treblewide - 18 Aug 2005 08:10 - 557 of 1497

mg old fella......i dumped a few yesterday...now been waiting for about 18 months for the deals...still no bloody sign....cash position becoming a real problem i think. still got a right good few though

robstuff - 18 Aug 2005 18:27 - 558 of 1497

Waiting for that illusive deal for so long now, this stock is now back on it's way down, there's no reason it can't sink back to 6p where i bought it last.

overgrowth - 18 Aug 2005 18:58 - 559 of 1497

robstuff - I thought you said you bought at 7.3p last (and considered that price an excellent bargain) ?

Trading the waves on MDW can be very profitable, though make sure you buy back in quickly when news is released.

ptholden - 19 Aug 2005 15:44 - 560 of 1497

something afoot?

jnknill - 19 Aug 2005 16:13 - 561 of 1497

pth, Certainly a smart about-turn! Maybe Medtronic decided to spend some of the 2.7 billion dollar profit which they made in Q1? Rgds.

optomistic - 19 Aug 2005 16:17 - 562 of 1497

jnknill, if they have they haven't parted with very much :-)

ptholden - 19 Aug 2005 16:22 - 563 of 1497

From a TA perspective, nice bounce off support at 11p with good volume and was looking quite oversold. Possible turn in the MACD and plenty of room for maonoeuvre with regard to the RSI. Topped up again today, so hopefully the news we are all waiting for is about to break. The wait has been long enough!!

Hope your portfolio is looking after you Jnk?

pth
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