Read the latest interims.......just make sure that you are sitting down.

the fundamentals are going forward not looking backwards. Suntech, Motech, BP Solar do not place vital wafer orders with 'any old' company esp when their own production capacity depends on the delivery of quality on time and on budget. The company itself was floated in August but has been trading since 2005. With the next 2 years output already pre-sold and with contracts signed to be announced I cannot see another company that shows superb earnings visibility. There are surprises round the corner with this company. Moreover, it is a common fallacy that just because a stock as risen by multiples in a short space of time it as to necessarily fall back. SOLA rose to over 500p and corrected back to 395P..a fall of over 20% in a week! That is a correction of the highest magnitude. We are trading in a range of 450-500p with substantial inst. buying in this range. Why? Because institutions know they are buying substantial earnings going forward. In 12 months time the multiple will be lower than its is now.

If you had adopted your approach one would have sold MIcrosoft, Oracle, Cisco even before they had started to appreciate in real value..

the 'other site' provides insights that this thread sadly lacks unfortunately..

f18

F18 .... i too am a great believer in following trend .... however, i am a trader at heart and therefore one is not just or even necessarily looking at long term outlook ..... institutions have to have a totally different outlook from most PIs, so it is not quite fair to link them ..... to revert ... i know from my own days of following Cisco, that that was pretty volatile ...... i am sure that even you would admit that, no matter how "good" the stock, it does not rise in a straight line any more than a "bad" one falls .... with regard to SOLA, having been alerted to it in the first place by my good friend Soul*, i thoroughly concur that in the long or even short/medium term it is a very good stock ...... nevertheless, my own view is that sp now needs a breather and perhaps even a correction before hopefully moving ahead again.

not such a dumb call of mine at the moment ...... watch +/-433 which is 25 dma mark for bounce or break ..... graph line has currently flattened off at that sort of level ...... unless market misbehaves, slightly or even somewhat shorter odds of a bounce from that level than a downward break.

Looks like you were right Cynic.

not yet ..... wait n watch ..... just followed by gut feeling for a change

Might also be partly due to BoE increase in base rate at noon.
433p would be a good buy if the sp then bounces to +/- 480p again.

so watch this space and keep an eye on the chart i posted - i.e. watch sp against 25 dma .... here below now! .... lol

I will watch, cynic. Agree with u

don't get this chart nonsense with SOLA. Institutions are buying on fundamentals not on technicals.. an upward price trend, yes but price falls are seen as buying opportunities not reasons to short..

wdik

f18

Anyone for a peak of 600p on FY results?? :o)

IMO there are those astute investors who realise that SOLA are in an unique position. Motech and Solarfun's ability to expand their own productive capacity depends on their ability to source and procure sufficient quantities of wafers from a reliable source. Renesola is that source. Renesola also have developed a unique business model which provides them with a low risk method of generating huge profits by sourcing their own silicon from scrap sources and from their OWN CUSTOMERS! its just too brilliant for words. The key to a profitable solar production company is access to a long term and reliable supply of polysilicon. Renesola as that in spades and thats why the market as bid the stock to such a level.

Reckon the market will be offering SOLA out at a fiver on new contract announcements due very soon and with FY06 results out back-end Feb then? well, who knows

F18

did i say short? ..... no i didn't ...... did i say i would almost certainly buy on weakness .... yes i did ...... so please stop jumping up and down and read properly

Am I right in saying that the product is good quality & in great demand & the marketing without fault.
The grey area is the fact that many investors or analysts are not happy with accounting procedures in the Far East & therefore the figures presented to us are not necessarily accurate.
Hence the wisdom, imo, of not being too greedy & taking profit when the sp falters.

Excelent point HC.

The problem is the laCK OF HISTORIC DATA.

But cash flow in/out must b watched next results and that is the clue to the future for sola.

I hope you all make a mint. I really do.

Best luck to every one here .

HC .... how politely put re accounting procedures in China! ...... We walked away from a deal in China, because the company, though seemingly part gov't owned, had accounts that were somewhat opaque! ...... howver, you are also right to say that SOLA seems to have found itself the perfect niche (but am very glad to have banked a good profit!)

SOLA's accounts are audited by Baker Tilly. With MArtin Bloom on board I really can't see any issues at all with SOLA's accounting practices. Its customers would have executed due diligence investigations on the company before entering into extremely vital supply contracts so im very confident that SOLA, as a viable operating business entity, is kosher.

f18

GOOD! ..... it will give me some comfort when i buy back in, either at a lower price if my pullback occurs or higher if i get greedy! ...... meanwhile am well content having put that money into Dow and done very ok

Why "GOOD"?
The expected bounce has not occurred, so the decision now is to decide whether the sp will continue upwards & to get on board, or not.

SCSW tomorrow - SOLA update
RNS's to come:

New contracts signed with MOtech, Solarfun, Suntech as per Letters of INtent
FY06 results
Factory completion in 6 weeks

if the contracts are multi-million dollar contracts, which they will be, then we're going to the moon. MOtech's failed MEMC deal was reportedly worth $1.6bn over 8 years..so what do you reckon Motech are paying SOLA over 3 years..$100m pa / $150m pa?

all speculation but good speculation


f18

good was ref auditors ..... big Q is for how long can SOLA keep going up almost in a straight line ...... certainly not a share just to be bought and popped in the drawer