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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

wayne300808 - 04 Jan 2006 15:04 - 546 of 1009

55011

I see you are as astute with your opinion on this one as you were with CDG which has bounced back significantly since you cast your "laughable" remarks on its prospects. Happy new year!

55011 - 04 Jan 2006 19:21 - 547 of 1009

Wayne300808 ...and a Happy New Year to you too.

Yes CDG was a bit of a so and so. Sadly many earlier enthusiasts lost the faith after a bullish news release a couple of years back was followed two days later by a hefty cash call. Quite a few "failed to benefit" and have been wary of the Professor ever since. Still, good luck to those on the latest ride, but I'll sit it out, thanks.

As long as RTD holds up, I'll exercise some patience with it. Recent institutional and Board buying suggest that the next results (March) won't disappoint.

DYOR.

Fred1new - 05 Jan 2006 00:05 - 548 of 1009

Do you think we will last till March?

55011 - 05 Jan 2006 10:21 - 549 of 1009

Why not?

55011 - 11 Jan 2006 13:11 - 550 of 1009

Still moving gently upwards. 140p on the bid, and the recovery continues. On the other side the punters are looking for upwards of 165p.

optomistic - 11 Jan 2006 13:17 - 551 of 1009

Oh yes, why not ?

55011 - 11 Jan 2006 13:36 - 552 of 1009

Should be much better than that, as we have the larger fuel card business now. So RTD should be able to grow on two fronts in future.

55011 - 11 Jan 2006 13:36 - 553 of 1009

.

Fred1new - 11 Jan 2006 20:27 - 554 of 1009

Douggie, Are you beginning to feel a little better or did you take that holiday.

Price and volume beginning to pick up.

55011 - 12 Jan 2006 10:50 - 555 of 1009

Welcome back Fred. We've been moving up steadily while you were away.

Fred1new - 13 Jan 2006 10:14 - 556 of 1009

55 Isn't this share moving beautifully, up to 146p or 29.2p in old money. The charts and indicators are improving nicely, but it would be nice to see an increase in volume.

If you are on L2 still it would be nice to know if there are any large buys waiting to be filled.

Nice to finnish the day above 150p but think that will be next week.

Have a nice day.

55011 - 13 Jan 2006 10:38 - 557 of 1009

L2 trial offer now ended. It was helpful.

L1 this morning has revealed , for the first time, a rapid succession of AT trades. This suggests computer (robot) trading. So it confirms to me that the institutions are on the scene.

A good rise this week, and especially (so far) today which could also prompt press comment over the weekend. Especially as many other stocks are tending to mark time at the moment, after the New Year rush.

55011 - 13 Jan 2006 13:40 - 558 of 1009

This brokers review dates back to the Autumn, just after the acquisition. Prices mentioned are pre the 1 for 5 consolidation. Gives a useful round up of what RTD is now all about. Recommendation "buy".

http://www.hoodlessbrennan.com/CMS_FileCache/HOODLE004_259_1.pdf

Fundamentalist - 17 Jan 2006 07:23 - 559 of 1009

That'd be 3 yrs running, good luck to all holders


Retail Decisions plc

Trading Statement

'Results Expected to Exceed Expectations'


Retail Decisions (ReD), the payment card issuer and a world leader in card fraud
prevention and payment processing, is pleased to announce trading has been
better than expected in the final quarter of its financial year and that the
initial results from the two recent acquisitions are also both ahead of
forecasts.

As a result, the Board expects the Group's profit before tax (for the year to 31
December 2005) to be in excess of current market expectations.

Fred1new - 17 Jan 2006 09:05 - 560 of 1009

Nice to read, should help the SP a little.

Give a little smile Douggie.

8-)

pachandl - 17 Jan 2006 09:34 - 561 of 1009

Excellent start to the day. It just shows what can be achieved with astute management at the top.

Douggie - 17 Jan 2006 10:19 - 562 of 1009

GOOD MORNING Fred .... :0)))......and all

Fundamentalist - 17 Jan 2006 11:45 - 563 of 1009

This may be keeping a lid on the SP - not the most bullish of notes in light of this mornings statement

From Daniel Stewart - 17 January 2006

Retail Decisions - Trading Update

Retail Decisions (ReD), a leading provider of services to the payments industry and payments card issuer, has announced a positive trading statement for the year to December 31st 2005 with pre-tax profits expected to be ahead of our existing forecasts of 7.5m. In light of this, we are increasing our FY05 PBT forecast to 8.0m, resulting in an EPS of 8.8p (previously 8.3p). We are leaving our FY06 and FY07 forecasts unchanged at this stage but believe pressure is on the upside. We maintain our BUY recommendation and price target of 180p, equivalent to 19.1x FY06 earnings

skyhigh - 17 Jan 2006 12:07 - 564 of 1009

Cool ! onwards and upwards... 2 soon ?

Fred1new - 17 Jan 2006 12:29 - 565 of 1009

Not disagreeing with you Fundy, but I think based on these figures from Barclays and Square Gain which havent been updated yet and accepting a a PE of about 20 for a now rapidly developing company we could expect a share price 240p over these next 12mths.

I am uncertain what the returns will be from its Korean licensing.

From Barclays
Forecasts
Year Ending Sales (m) Pre-tax (m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-Dec-05 39.80 7.40 8.50p 17.3 n/a -1% n/a 0.0%
31-Dec-06 130.90 11.20 9.80p 15.0 1.0 +15% n/a 0.0%
31-Dec-07 141.10 13.80 12.00p 12.3 0.5 +22% n/a 0.0%



From Squaregain

Ratio estimates 2005 2006 2007(e)
Earnings per share (EPS) (in BPC) 8.50 9.80 12.00
Price earnings ratio 18.12 15.71 12.83



Cash flow per share (in BPC) n/a n/a n/a
Net assets per share (in BPC) n/a n/a n/a

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