ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

queen1: Thanks for post...just goes to prove that the marketing power of ASOS just gets better and better!

John

Thanks for post. Having done some research on each share in the protfolio it was clear that what they had in common was good prospects. Normally, I wouldn't hold nearly so many shares, a min. of 5000 or 5% is my guideline, but a lower stake of 2000 in several of the shares means that you follow them more seriously and then you can either build up the stake or get out. Of these, I have already built up CFP because they will almost certainly be a major beneficiary from AIM market expansion and are very cheap, in my view, with a cap of only 4.33m. I have also built up in oil from scratch, increasing stake this week in PET. There have been some brilliant posts on the PET column (incl. your own!, flatter, flatter) including good reasoning why mega-major Iraq oil contract(s) should go to a minnow like PET. Boom or bust of course. I still think our friend, Sandrew will win this contest and not too long in the future at that!

Re the comparison, presumably with the FTSE, it seems a good idea - can probably take a weekly figure from Shares for the starting point. There's an interesting review of analysts views this week of where the FTSE will be in a year's time and the general concensus seems to be around 5300. There doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon that could cause a major fall. The other point about this scenario is that most of the portfolio is too small to see much institutional holding, including pension funds (which could be net sellers): the market in them is just too small. That could change with the oils and, quite possibly, ASC which can only help the price as the institutions start seeing the need for a stake.

Eric

Evening Eric et all.

Hope all is well in the world. Well believe it or not I nearly bought some ASC shares on Friday, but hadn't realised that the Market had closed, DOH! I shall have another look on Monday morning. Superscape are looking really good at the moment. I thought about them a few weeks ago, but you know what thought did, (or didn't in my case!). Also quite like the look of PET, but on balance, decided to go for SEY, who already have a steady income, plus the possibilities of current exploration. Too many risky shares in my portfolio already. Like many others, I still believe CFP are poised for take off, just wish I could have bought some more at 0.61p! Problem with this share lark, there is only so much money to go around some very exciting prospects.

Regards

PTH

Eric: Thanks your post. I do agree that it makes a huge difference to the interest one has in a share if you have a holding...no matter how small. I must confess that I have a difficulty holding a share like CFP at these prices...but will have another look at things over the weekend following your comments as well as those of ptholden.

Re FTSE Index I think we need to be careful about which one we choose, perhaps the 250 or smaller companies? I am not so sure about FTSE at 5300 next year! As I am naturally more 'bullish' than 'bearish' I would like to think that will be achieved but there are other forces at work. I must say the Forex market is a concern and on Friday the US$ started to crack, that could impact Wall Street as I do not see anything around to stop the Oil Price rise..do you? So if Wall Street starts to fall, that will in turn hit the FTSE100, but less so the smaller companies where we are placing our bets!

Re ASC I have been looking at the PEG ratios which I think is a good way of judging, small racy companies, and according to the Seymour Pierce figures we are looking at 0.39 for 2005(E) and 0.72 for 2006(E)...not bad at all. I do hope readers of this BB do not think I or others are ramping this share in any way, but the figures I am quoting are from the House Broker...and were updated recently so any change to those estimates would have been reflected in their notes. Full steam ahead for ASOS and long may it continue.

Finally re PET I am posting on that BB especially for Tokyo who is all shaken up after today's ground tremors so I want to cheer him up!! John

Great guy, John, all altruistic to be cheering others up - Tokyo deserves cheering up as he is a great source of knowledge. I think the SP (house broker) notes preceded the informal leak of the five month trading position at 85% up so these figures are probably conservative. We both have ASC at 40% of our holdings: I have not held another share at this weighting and I believe we have both done our homework. I'm not building up further as you are but would at least keep at the 40% level if the PET price goes sky high in the next few days. Agree that small-cap and AIM is place to be because these are generally upwardly mobile and not affected by things like pension funds and oil prices - unless we are talking about the PCIs and SEYs and PETs of this world!

Agree we should take the small-cap index and will add it to the portfolio post.

Eric

I have updated post 542 to show the benchmark small-cap index; down 0.8% since 6th October using the Hemscott weekly report. So portfolio is doing quite nicely, thankyou. Its interesting that the starting post on this bb refers to an ASC price of 5.5p and therefore a cap. of less than 4m, effectively a penny share. What attracts me to our smallest cap. shares, CFP and SEO (and to a certain extent, CCN) is the multiplier coming through once positive trading is established. I was interested also in the Shares letter this week about when to take profits. Timon Day responded that one rule of thumb was to take half the profits when the share doubles (so that the net cost is zero). In fact, thats more or less what I did with ASOS. But, whilst taking 22K profits, I actually have left something like 35K on the table. This time I am at least going to run the profits until I conclude that they are fully valued - probably not before that they have actually doubled.

Eric

i must agree with with some of the concerns over the ftse 100/350. Normally 'a glass half full type of guy' but i think we need to keep an eye on a few things. High oil prices, weak dollar and falling DOW, big trade deficiets (in us and the uk), slowing housing market, and the worsening situation in iraq. Its no use shoving these problems under the carpet and pretending they are not there. My biggest investments at the moment are now in smaller companies so hoping they will be shielded a little bit from their big brothers. What do others think about the general market?

Kivver: I agree that the points you raise are real concerns, and from a charting perspective we have a falling 200 day ma, on the DOW which will take alot to turn around, and we all know the effect the US Mkt has on the FTSE! IMO we all need to be very careful and closely monitor our chosen stocks. As you say, and I think we have a consensus among the posters on this BB, small stocks, well chosen and researched is the place to be right now. JOhn

I agree John, i just hope sentiment doesn't turn too much against the market, because that will effect all shares. I suppose we might also say it may lead to good buying opportunity. Not a good start today but seems to be levelling off. We need some good news quickly. Fingers crossed! Kivver

Morning guys,

Just to throw my two pennyworth in. I agree with Kivver and John, the FTSE follows the DOW to closely for my liking, and whilst holding FTSE 100/350 stocks, I felt constantly aggrieved at the US affect on companies that had little or nothing to do with the US Markets. I am a lot happier investing in AIM stocks. OK it may be more risky, (depends on your perspective), but it is a lot more exciting and much greater returns are there to be had if you pick the right ones!

Regards

PTH

I know it's hard to isolate one particular factor, but what effect would a housing crash have on the markets? Does the market historically go up on an initial housing price fall as investors move their resources into shares? Am I right in thinking that the markets crashed a few years after house prices started dropping last time? I wasn't an investor then so wasn't paying enough attention to be able to answer my own questions.
Any thoughts anyone?

Hi sandrew, was thinking about the bigger picture, ie slowing growth, people with not so much money to spend etc. I dont think there will be a crash but a more of leveling off/slight decline. Also depends if we have any more rate rises of course, some predicting we still need one more. Rising fuel/utility bills will also add pressure to the economy. Like i say we need some good news to brighten the mood.

Kivver

Will be surprised if there is another interest hike. Most of the indicators seem to lead towards a slowing down of the economy and that people are now spending less and therefore no requirement to raise the rate. My biggest concern is what effect oil prices will have on the economy once the recent rises start to filter through.

PTH

Sorry Kivver... I think you misunderstand me. Really didn't want to enter into a debate about housing market and I appreciate your comments agree we could do with some good news and also agree we are better off in AIM shares and certainly our well reseached ones. Just wondered in anyone had any historical input on relationship between housing market and market fluctuations. Thanks ,S.

sandrew64: The impact of falling house prices is on people's sentiment. Naturally they generally feel less well off, spend less and that, among other things leads to falling retail sales, which in turn generally depresses a number of market sectors. So a natural extension of your question is in that case what effect will it have on ASOS? IMO none, as the target audience is not really going to get hit by falling house prices. A major crash though is an entirely different issue. Hope that helps. John

I don't take the Daily Mail, but popped by my mothers and ASC had a full page spread today, more or less. I will try and find an electronic version of the article.

Regards

PTH

I've seen the same article, but had no luck finding an electronic version! Did managed to stumble across this article below though, which is great news for ASOS!


Celebrity looks cost women billions

omen collectively splashed out 4.3 billion on their credit cards during the past year trying to emulate their favourite celebrities, research showed today.

Three-quarters of women admitted they felt under pressure to have the perfect figures, immaculate grooming and expensive wardrobes flaunted by actresses and models, according to Virgin Money.

The group found that women spent an average of 713 each on their credit cards during the past 12 months on designer accessories, fake tans and hair extensions, a trend it has dubbed celebrity spending.

It also found that women are more obsessed with celebrities' images than with their lifestyle, with 24% saying they would most like to have their idol's figure and wardrobe, compared with just 11% who would want their job and 4% who would want their fame.

Virgin Money said fashion and gossip magazines were the celebrity spenders' bibles, with 92% of women saying they trawled their pages for the latest looks.

But two-thirds admitted they would often hide their purchases from their partners and lie to family and friends about how much they had spent.

Jason Wyer-Smith, of Virgin Money, said: "It seems that women today now feel pressured into spending more and more money in a bid to match the glamorous images they're constantly exposed to in the media.

"But unfortunately we don't all earn a Hollywood pay-packet, so, while it's nice to treat ourselves, we should remember to live, and look good, within our means."

The research also found that the trend was beginning to spread to men, with 23% of men saying they envied David Beckham's image, while 22% said they would like to have a celebrity's physique, compared with 10% who would want their ability to attract women.

Women in the West Midlands were the biggest celebrity spenders, putting an average of 1,840 on their credit cards as they tried to copy celebrities' style, followed by those in Scotland at 733.33.

However, women in the North East were the least concerned about keeping up with the latest trends, spending only 328.57 on their credit cards during the past year.

QRS questioned 500 women and 500 men during August.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/standard/article.html?in_article_id=318227&in_page_id=1685

The Mail's article (which my wife takes, not me, let me hastily add) is in a section called Self Image and headed Copycat Chic. It commences by saying that:"We live in an age obsessed by celebrity, in which stars can make a dress or a pair of jeans a best-seller simply by being seen wearing them." They went shopping at ASOS to see how much they could save: spent 220 on seven (attractive to me!) outfits and saved more than 2000!

Went to bed last night feeling pretty sore at leaving so much on the table by selling ASOS shares. Felt even more sore after losing at the 19th in the quarter final of the senior pairs knock-out after my partner had missed a 3 ft putt for the match on the 18th - I had had five putts which hit the hole and stayed out! Felt far better after topping up my ASOS holding with 17,500 shares at av. 65.8p. Felt very guilty (shame! shame!) for cleaning out 5 of our portfolio shares in the process. But these birds in their chic dresses are irresistible, aren't they. Blame johngtudor for asserting that he was increasing the 40% share in ASOS for his portfolio. All I can say is: Don't do what I say, do what I do! Oh yes, and: Never trust a man when his eye is on a chic woman!

Eric

Eric

Certainly shame on you, well, you can never be accused of becoming emotionally attached to a share........................except ASC!! LOL. I hope you didn't clear out SEY or CFP!! Lots more to come from these two.

SEY going great guns on Mauritania drilling programme, although no definitive results yet, but news of deal about to be signed in W Africa good be 'Huge' according to press comment.

CFP showing signs of weakness, although a large proportion of reported sells are actually buys, need some good news to kick start it again in the short term, but as we all know, this is a long term investment.

Shame about the golf, is your partner wearing your driver by any chance? Played myself on Saturday, in a howling gale, only managed to lose one ball, which I considered to be a bit of a result in itself.

Regards

PTH

Feeling better this morning. Celebrated by buying another 7300 ASC at 73.19p. Come on folk, join the party! If you're overweight you may not be able to wear them but you can enjoy the upward curves!

PTH: Holding the oils plus CFP. Exciting things happening with SEY, PET and PCI so I will stay in for the short-term ride. Don't mind the odd medium termer such as CFP and AZM, although I reduced the latter to 10% of portfolio to make room for some more ASC.

Good debate opened by Kivver yesterday. Re the DOW, general view seems to be that the election of John Kerry would not be good news for equities, better for bonds. The FTSE 100, and the other indices to a certain extent, would be almost bound to follow. There's a bit of a vicious circle in a falling market because the liquidity ratios of pension funds means,as I understand it, that they sell if the market falls. I suspect quite a bit of new money in the stock market has come either from releasing funds from homes or other funds based on the pleasant feeling of the value of the home. But my other main point is that every market is really a stock-pickers market. That brings us back to AIM. That brings us back to ASC. Hooray! Knew every argument would end with - BUY ASC!

Oh! That's good - made a nice little profit on those ASC I bought 20 minutes ago!

Eric