markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
chav
- 04 Nov 2010 13:43
- 5489 of 6492
I presume you are just having a round of Golf then marky!
gibby
- 04 Nov 2010 14:11
- 5490 of 6492
from another bb:
'I, as a market maker, decide (for no real reason, or perhaps because there has been
some trivial news about them) that stock in ABC Corp is my plaything today. I don't
have much of an inventory in that particular security, so what do I do? Mark up the
price so external holders will sell me some? No. I mark the price DOWN. Oof. Some
external parties see this as a buying opportunity, and as I am a market maker, I am
obliged to sell them the security at the new, lower price, meaning I am even shorter
on that security.
Sounds mad, doesn't it? But it doesn't matter, because I mark the price down again.
And again. And I keep on doing it till I hit the stops of external parties who are
long, but weak, or the limit orders of people who are short. As a market maker, I know
where these stops and limits are. I own the book, after all.
Ordinary Joe Public mostly think the market follows the laws of supply and demand,
follows trendlines or fibonaccis etc, which means they all tend to put their stops in
similar places ('resistance' anyone? 'support'? That's right, it exists!). This is a
game of chicken, really, and YOU will ALWAYS crack before ME (the market maker),
because I can take the market to zero, or to the moon. You have to meet a margin call.
So now I am a market maker who has a LOT of supply of ABC Corp, which has fallen
significantly in price. Looks like I'm holding a plum, doesn't it? What do I do next?
That's right. I mark the price up. And I QUICKLY mark it up to the point at which the
current price is ABOVE my average purchase price. So voila. I'm in profit. In a fairly
big way. All I need to do now is unload this stock to you over a period of time at a
price above my average, and I am rich. You, of course, sold it to me on the way down,
and are regretting it because it is probably already way above where you exited
(strange isn't it, how the market seems to 'hunt your stops', and then reverse?!) If I
do this right (and it is an art form, for which successful brokers get paid multi-
million dollar salaries), I create the illusion that the market is totally random, and
is being driven by YOU, whereas I am simply a fee paid middleman, facilitating your
activities. Even worse, I give you the vague impression that you are actually pretty
good at it, and if you can only get your stops a little more accurate, you will stop
losing money!
As I mark the price up, external parties start to worry they will miss out on this
growth, and begin an ABC Corp buying frenzy, allowing me to unload. Everyone is happy.
Most of the investing public are sitting on unrealized (imaginary) assets, while I am
converting worthless shares into hard cash.
So, I have made a real, cash profit. You are sitting on an unrealized paper profit. We
are all happy. Until I repeat the process and stop you out. Again. Are you getting the
picture yet? '
Balerboy
- 04 Nov 2010 14:25
- 5491 of 6492
Gibby, great post and seems very true though others will probably mock you.,.
cynic
- 04 Nov 2010 16:06
- 5492 of 6492
is not the moral that one should prudently bank profits?
Balerboy
- 04 Nov 2010 16:10
- 5493 of 6492
can't believe you checked your e-mails whilst out shopping with your "Roy Cropper" shopping bag cyners, and yesone should be prudent but I haven't followed your lead on xel. Will see if you were correct to do so..
cynic
- 04 Nov 2010 16:22
- 5494 of 6492
whichever way the price moves, it was the correct thing to do ...... the time to buy will probably be 30 minutes after the RNS - i.e. there are likely to be a shedload of profit-takers, whatever the result ..... if there is heavy profit-taking beforehand, then that too could be a buying opportunity ...... if sp rockets after the result (because it's a cracker), then i shall probably be a buyer too ..... it matters not that i shall be paying more than for what i sold
Balerboy
- 04 Nov 2010 16:30
- 5495 of 6492
Then why not wait till the rns and be on of the profit takers at a higher price?
cynic
- 04 Nov 2010 16:35
- 5496 of 6492
my post 5494 of course refers to XEL ...... in answer to your Q ..... because the markets always catch one out and i am very happy indeed of have BANKED a large slab of profit instead of just pretending with a paper profit
to continue the point ..... DES SHOULD have collapsed on the latest news, but patently did not
dealerdear
- 04 Nov 2010 16:44
- 5497 of 6492
gibby.
For someone who watches a 100 or so stocks very closely, I'm convinced that is true but is probably only true in a recessionary period. For an example today take a look at SEY. Opened higher looked as though it was going north, then dropped back to 55p to presumably hit the stops and then suddenly shot back-up to 58p closing around 60p. Hardly any investors would have made money (apart from those brave enough to go long back at 55p) but the MM's had a field day. Not only that, but if too many investors went long at 55p I dare say the price would have dropped to 50p to hit their stops.
Very dangerous markets particularly at themomemnt IMO.
gibby
- 04 Nov 2010 17:44
- 5498 of 6492
baler thanks - thought good to share
cynic
- 04 Nov 2010 17:44
- 5499 of 6492
really? ..... well apart from the odd inevitable "nasty", i've been finding the markets just dandy for the last 18 months or so ..... but then i don't have enough eyes to watch 100 stocks
gibby
- 04 Nov 2010 17:47
- 5500 of 6492
cynic - yep in my early days i often banked too late and watched my profits dwindle - now i try not to get attached to any share and bank when i think it is appropriate - much earlier than i used to - today i had a tickle on cza - bought early sold on high - in out job done - but rrr i got in just over 2p - i topped sliced and left the rest to run free as an example as i expect very much there next year or so - and if that goes tats up so what - when i topped slice still tool a big profit as well - depends on the share for me really and the circumstances
gibby
- 04 Nov 2010 17:51
- 5501 of 6492
dd - indeed - the mms are tough to beat!
avsec
- 05 Nov 2010 11:26
- 5502 of 6492
cynic
have you closed your DES short? I just cannot understand how it keeps going; there is either some information out there or a lot of punters having a good time. There aren't any wispers in the wind in Stanley that I am hearing..
cynic
- 05 Nov 2010 11:36
- 5503 of 6492
no .... it's not doing any damage and i'll leave it for now
chav
- 05 Nov 2010 12:16
- 5504 of 6492
Lovely graph today!...think it's only going to get better during the rest of the day as well.
Proselenes
- 05 Nov 2010 12:25
- 5505 of 6492
I get the feeling the whispers are saying Rachel-2 is going to be given the go ahead.......
chav
- 05 Nov 2010 12:27
- 5506 of 6492
you could well be right pro.