.

Comments from Paul over at TMF :

Re reasons to buy the shares now:

1. We are hoping for first San Severino deal any day. Ascent's achilles heel is its cash position, especially with Hungarian production temporarily off line. A good SS deal will solve these concerns. (AST are effectively acting as fund manager of 100m Euros, seeking to provide finance for perhaps four development projects at a time when cash is King. AST take 20% of the profits and are currently receiving contribution to cover their overheads).

This first SS deal (probably quickly followed by others) will re-rate share price.



2. Hungarian Production at PEN. AST likely to announce a significant reserves upgrade. From the Leni Oil Barrel presentation, it appears this could be very significant, especially since will be quick to bring into production. PEN 104 should be back on line within a couple of months and is likely to be producing at a much greater rate than before. This will be followed by four other wells (I think two sidetracks/two new wells). PEN looking very exciting.


3. Anagni may be drilled much earlier that market expecting. Only 500m to top of structure so ultra cheap to drill, hence no need to farm out. This is The Big One! Market will get very excited when it spuds. Higher risk than Gazatta.


4. Gazatta spud date subject to Otto and Galoc. Should know soon whether Galoc now generating the revenues to allow Otto to pay for Gazatta. I agree cost over runs a worry and keep meaning to quiz Ascent about this. As has been mentioned, if Gazatta a success, identical looking Ruberia next door becomes a near cert - the principle risk is water table.


5. Hermrigen farm out - another possible blockbuster. Ascent hoping to drill appraisal well this year but farm out talks have been ongoing since end last year and may be floundering in current climate. AST want (from memory) a 6m Euro commitment.


The limited feedback I get from informed investors and industry insiders (a total of 5 views so only snapshot) is that AST really is one of those few companies with enough attractive explo upside to deliver 100 fold returns.

If we go back to early Jan 09 :

RNS Number : 3539L
Ascent Resources PLC
08 January 2009

Ascent Resources plc

('Ascent' or 'the Company')

Director's dealing

Jeremy Eng, Managing Director of Ascent, has today purchased 1,808,557 ordinary shares of 0.1p each in the Company at a price of 2.75p per share. Following this purchase, Mr Eng is interested in 3,808,557 ordinary shares in the Company, representing 1.25 per cent. of the issued share capital of the Company.


I wonder how "good" the soon to be released new reserve estimates for the PEN field are..........how many BCF recoverable ?? Could be exciting, certainly people are saying Leni appear excited.

Big file so be patient if loading the link, recent Otto presentation :

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090225/pdf/31g84nxc014h79.pdf

Nice to see Otto still value Gazatta as between 0.3 to 0.5 Aus per share NPV10 basis value to them (circa 150mA$ to 250mA$)

So for Ascent resources its potential value on success appears to be between 21p a share and 36p a share based on expectations, could be more if a larger recoverable find is made, and could be nothing on failure too of course.

Anyway, kind of brings focus to the potential uprating the share could see on any success, should there be some.

And given its very close to existing infrastructure in the dominant gas producing area of Italy, its value can be realised that much sooner as opposed to something in some far flung land tens or hundreds of kilometres from existing gas production pipelines.

Also, they seem to rate the Rubiera prospect as slightly bigger than Gazatta size wise, and thats a prospect that would be somewhat derisked if the nearby Gazatta well was a success.

You can certainly see why some people think this has explosive potential upside, if you are willing to take the risk that presently they are barely a going concern until we hear further news, but hopefully the PEN-104 well will be back on line with increased production output levels soon once the sidetrack is done.

I would take a guess that Gazatta will be drilled June or July 2009, sooner would be nice but with any drilling plans, always expect it be a bit late.

pp keep ramping this "pie in the sky" share do they have any oil/gas production?

Yes they do.

Hungary. Presently offline whilst the downstream Hungarian pipeline tie in compressor is overhauled. Due back on line in a few weeks.

This "production" is going to be pushed upwards this year and AST will be producing net to them over 1000boepd just from Hungary by year end.

So yes, they do have production :) !

Back to Hungary, its nice to see the partner in Hungary (MOL) reaffirm they are spending on "field developments", ie the Ascent Peneszlek field.

http://www.mtieco.hu/Pages/shownews.aspx?id=689711&page=0〈=eng

With PEN-104 sidetracked and PEN-102 tied in as well, along with the PEN9/12/New they are targetting 2000boepd production end of the year for the field.

Thats nearly 1000boepd for Ascent, as daily production from Hungary.

It looks like MOL is spending its money on developing the Hungary/Croatia and Hungary/Romania borders, which is where Peneszlek comes in as its on the Romania border. I wonder if the mentioned "Romanian gas pipeline" development is to do with the development of the Peneszlek field and the whole border area here with Romania ?

pp "targetting production" is not the same as actually producing now.

They have been producing up until Jan. The well (PEN-104) is offline due to a compressor failure on the pipe line (not AST).

And in the interim they are going to sidetrack it (this month) and boost up production levels and reserve estimates.

So by April it will be back on production, and then with an increase target set to be 2000boepd from the field by year end.

BROKER NEWS Fox-Davies Capital initiates on Ascent Resources with a buy rating and 15p price target

And for those who want to read it, here is the download link :

http://www.fdcap.com/media/40194/ic_ascent_01.03.09.pdf

.

Comment from Paul about the new Fox Davies note over at TMF :

Spoken to FD.

The 20% risking is cautious and blanket figure. Sexy at 20% but using Ascent's in house 50% (Anagni) and 60% (Gazatta) it's unnecessarily sexy so playing safe.

I asked why boe valued at only $3. Includes in Gazatta's case a 30% allowance for possible farm out. Also valuation takes account of the value plced on reserves by the Stockmarket. IMO a valuation based on what a predator might pay is more realistic.

Ruberia not included since no plans to drill this year. Bit surprised by this since Ruberia identical to Gazatta and prime asset.

IMO AST looks good value on basis of this Note but (again imo) this Note overly cautious. And no SS deals included yet in NAV.

.

Interesting post on AST (after the FRR bit).

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=11480713&sort=whole


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http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/4914/ascent-resources-gears-up-for-busy-drill-program-4914.html

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Ascent Resources Gears Up For Busy Drill Program
by Robert Waterhouse

With an active drilling programme about to kick off, London-based AIM-listed Ascent Resources (AST) is ready to go. And with its first gas field already on production, a strategic stake in an Italian drilling con.............

New article, click HERE

Nice rise today, perhaps the overhang is clearing and the long term seller is nearly sold out.

More good volume. As at 13:50 L2 is looking better with another MM moving up. Now 3 v 2 @ 3.75/4 so we might get another rise today.

Excellent news.....looks like the reserves are much bigger than first thought and over a wider area.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200903300700156689P

RNS Number : 6689P
Ascent Resources PLC

30 March 2009

Hungarian Drilling Update

Ascent Resources plc, the AIM-traded oil and gas exploration and production company, through its 45.23% owned subsidiary PetroHungaria kft ('PetroHungaria'), has started drilling PEN-104A, a sidetrack well to the gas producing PEN-104 well in the Penzlek area of the Nys permits of eastern Hungary.

The PEN-104 discovery well, originally drilled in 2006 by PetroHungaria, produced gas from August 2008 to February 2009 with cumulative production of 509 MMscf (14.41 million sm3). Following the acquisition of 3-D seismic in the area and as a consequence of a compressor failure in the regional gas supply infrastructure, PetroHungaria decided to drill the 104A sidetrack to reach additional gas reserves in a higher part of the structure. The sidetrack is expected to take about three weeks to complete and can be brought on production immediately through the existing facilities.

As a further consequence of the 3-D seismic results, plans are being made to drill PEN-105, an appraisal well of the PEN-12 gas discovery drilled in 1983, and PEN-102A, a sidetrack of the PEN-102 well drilled by PetroHungaria in 2006. Permitting for these wells and their associated pipelines is underway. The drilling of an appraisal of the PEN-9 gas discovery is also being assessed and the drilling of further wells in the area where the 3-D seismic was acquired is under consideration.

Ascent holds a 45.23% interest in the Penzlek Project through its equity interest in PetroHungaria. Other partners include DualEx (37.5%), Geomega (8%), Leni Gas & Oil (7.27%) and Swede Resources (2%).

Ascent Managing Director Jeremy Eng said, 'The extent of the reserves that are present in the Penzlek area are only now becoming apparent with the 3-D seismic being instrumental in identifying the potential. Importantly, these estimates do not yet include any contribution from the rehabilitation of the old Penzlek gasfield where the seismic clearly shows that the configuration is very different from previous interpretations. We can expect cashflow from these gas production projects to continue for some years yet.'

* * ENDS * *

Up on a down day, which is good to see.

The bit that grabs you is

Ascent Managing Director Jeremy Eng said, 'The extent of the reserves that are present in the Penzlek area are only now becoming apparent with the 3-D seismic being instrumental in identifying the potential. Importantly, these estimates do not yet include any contribution from the rehabilitation of the old Penzlek gasfield where the seismic clearly shows that the configuration is very different from previous interpretations. We can expect cashflow from these gas production projects to continue for some years yet.'

That is very good news !

I'm still holding PP!