Edmond Jackson: Jarvis attracts speculators in spite of losses
Published: 16:00 Wednesday 29 December 2004
By: Edmond Jackson
The period between Christmas and New Year is a classic one for news companies would prefer to hide - and perhaps Jarvis is setting a record among smaller companies by declaring a 283 million loss.
Yet the shares (JRVS) have been attracting buyers with the price up 7p to 25p/25.25p, capitalising the facilities management group at about 36 million. In its financial year to March, the facilities management group reported turnover above 1 billion.
Steven Norris, chairman, makes various bullish assertions in his statement, though I am mindful this is a company where shareholders desperately need some encouragement. Jarvis shares are showing the bounce that usually happens when a financially stretched company affirms viability. But long-term investors need grounds to anticipate a worthwhile business being honed out of a restructuring.
Jarvis had already warned the market about this news, via trading statements in July and November. At the start of December the shares were at an all-time low of 10.5p. So any silver lining to the black cloud triggers a price rise, with enough sellers already out. Chairman Steven Norris asserts that these results represent the nadir of the groups fortunes.
As you might expect with losses on this scale, some 240 million of these are exceptional write-downs (goodwill in the roads business, construction losses, certain debtors and work in progress). Norris claims that in the last few weeks the group has made outstanding progress with its business plan to stabilise the groups finances and reduce indebtedness.
Norris reiterates this extremely good progress and perhaps that is how it appears to management, which is fire fighting. Investors still have to appraise a like for like group operating loss of 44.5 million, relative to a profit of 31.7 million.
The share price rise is justified by Jarvis establishing a firmer financial footing such as selling its interest in Tube Lines for 146.8 million; agreeing 105 million of funding to complete construction contracts; and agreeing a refinancing until 27 March 2006 via additional bond facilities.
Looking forward, what concerns me is the modest information (as yet) to assess the ongoing businesses. This is understandable at an early stage in the recovery process. We are told of cost cutting that should yield annualised savings of 50 million and the new core businesses of rail, road and plant operations have been re-designed under a new organisational structure, and will be leaner and more cash generative than in the past. But despite this progress more work needs to be done in many areas to re-establish and enhance our reputation in our core markets.
It is a classic hurdle to overcome, how customer relations will have been affected by adverse publicity. Investors are challenged to figure how this may be resolved in future turnover.
That a new chief executive, Alan Lovell, was appointed in October was indeed vitally important and Alan has an outstanding record of achievement having undertaken restructuring and recovery work in the most exacting situations. Norris is similarly upbeat about promotions as chief operating officer and finance director.
The operations review reads well, but when it comes to the nub issue Norris cannot yet affirm the prospect of a profitable business, he ensures the caveat that we will be doing everything in our power to recreate a profitable efficient business
I am inclined to follow how the ongoing group performs, rather than buy on todays rise. Jarvis is a recovery share in the making, though its a speculative leap as to how it shapes up
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