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[14:06 AUD/USD: Retreats As US Yields Surge on Latest Data] San Francisco,
April 25. AUD/USD has pulled back to 0.7462/65 on yet another failed attempt to
test 0.7500. Helping to weigh on AUD is a surge in US bond yields in the wake of
the better-than-expected US existing home sales and Conference Board confidence
data. US ten-year bond yields have rallied above 5.04% before easing off the
highs. This continues to pressure the AUD yield spreads over US bonds. The ten-
year yield differential has been trading near recent lows of 60 bp to 63 bp and
remains a factor hampering the AUD performance.
Support for AUD/USD on dips remains at 0.7440/45. Rhonda.Staskow@Thomson.com





[14:05 EUR/USD: Strong US Data Prompts Profit-Taking] Boston, April 25. After
failing to overcome 1.2450 barrier options, EUR/USD has slumped back through
1.2415 support on the combination of much stronger than expected US home sales
and consumer confidence. Bids are seen in the 1.2380/90 area and again toward
1.2365. Small stops are seen below the latter level. Expect Asian names to buy-
back EUR/USD sold to protect 1.2450 on dips. EUR/USD trades at 1.2405 after a
slide as low as 1.2390, briefly. Jamie.Coleman@Thomson.com /rs





[14:04 USD/CHF: Bouncing As Home Sales Data Supports USD] Boston, April 25.
Better than expected home sales data, -0.3% Vs the 3.0% expected, have helped
the Dollar to rally. Also helping is the jump in consumer confidence in April
from the previous 107.5 to 109.6. Thus far USD/CHF has hit 1.2702 on the way
back up but macro accounts are said to be sitting on the offer into 1.2700/05 to
limit any further rebound. Matthew.Foster-Smith@Thomson.com





[14:03 US ECON: Confidence Surprisingly Inched up to 109.6 in April]





[14:03 USD/CAD: US to Halt SPR Build Temporarily] Boston, April 25. Keep an eye
on oil prices as Bush just announced that the US will suspend adding to the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve. While just a fraction of overall demand, it is a
constant bid for the oil market that will leave the market. Oil prices are
steady at $74.00 at the moment. USD/CAD is getting a short-covering lift from
that news as well as much stronger than expected US existing home sales and
consumer confidence. It trades now at 1.1335 from 1.1317 lows.
Jamie.Coleman@Thomson.com

Another crazy day on cable today. It spent the morning in yesterday evenings downtrend then wandered up into the previous two days uptrend. It decided that it was in nosebleed territory and fell straight back into the downtrend again. It's been undecided since the afternoon whether to join an up or down trend. It's been slowing creeping upwards, though, forming higher lows this evening.

Only picked up +6 pips today as bottled out and closed up. As soon as I closed it went on in the direction of my trade by a further 30 pips. Just my luck!!

I'll crack it eventually but at least I'm fairly satisfied that I'm able to make out the main trends at this stage.

It's spot on again this morning, H. Just umming and aaghing whether to bank now as it's hovering around those two targets.

edit: Took it as I posted.

Glad it's working for you Hilary :-)

The one hour chart is really interesting Hilary. The P&F target of 7920 was set on 10th April and achieved exactly on 18th April. We now have no more upside targets but a downside of 7470. We shall see.

We actually have two independent targets of 7470 which increases the validity of the target. edit. Although in fairness the first of those has previously been achieved. It has yet to be validated though so should not be relied on just yet.

Does anyone here use livecharts.co.uk?
If so have you been getting Java general exception errors in the last few days?
I use these as detached floating indicators of FTSE Gold and Brent. If only I could figure out how to do p&f targets from them!

Sorry, not me rpaco.

H,

I haven't looked at the 1 hour P&F although I will do later. I do already have settings for my own 1 hour charts which I use for my longer term strategy which spans days and sometimes weeks.

Cable certainly seems to have strength atm, so I've got to say that I'm sceptical of further falls to the level suggested without it pushing to new multi-month highs first. Fundamentally, I think that high energy costs should weaken the Dollar going into the summer driving season and, with the round of US rate rises looking to be close to an end, I can't see any great reason to buy the greenback right now for the longer term. In addition, I'm in the small minority who think that, over the next 2 or 3 years, we're likely to see UK interest rates of 7% or 8%. With that in mind, another run in cable towards $2 may be on the cards. We'll see.

Unfortunately I got caught at lunchtime. I left for tennis this morning with a cable long having reversed my earlier short. It was my intention to either offload it or shove my stop up tight ahead of the 1:30 data. Unfortunately, I ran late and returned literally seconds before the news, only to watch helplessly as it gapped down and turned my tasty little profit into a loss before hitting my stop.

It wasn't all bad though. At least I won in 2 straight sets.

:o)

Hilary, ignore that 60 min target. It is a false one.

Well, the last two days have been somewhat diifcult to say the least! The constant whipsawing associated with a snail paced modem connection verges on the impossible. However, despite having both hands tied behind my back, I have managed to bank another 50 pips or so. Only another week to go before Broadband is available once more!

pth

Well done Pth. Better than me today. :-)

And me()! Been lurking the last week orso(took a long time to read all the posts), finding it difficult to get back into trading since my return from UK. Moving flat this wkend(hopefully got somewhere sorted for the next year, but nothings definite here) and hopefully have our internet sorted within 2 weeks. Keep it up pth, your going well. SAS on telly CIAO

Euro at top of daily channel or threatening to break out of it?
Pullback tomorrow? and then Bernake is out tomorrow night?

What on earth happened there?

Gone into orbit!

At least I was long :-))

Oops, had a freak mouse accident on Thursday and ended up short!! Have to start again now. :-(

Anyway, my chart tells me that this is the top for now (18250 ish) and should pull back from here. Target 18100. If it keeps going, who knows?

pth

Well I'm not going to go through the whole pairs' gamut here.

The ones that interest me are the Loonie (which is at 1992 lows now) the Swissie, which has broken through its little uptrend from the beginning of 2005, the Yen which is (maybe) close to breaking its little upthingie from the same period - and then there are these two:



There's no line of resistance left - well that's stating the obvious :)

My indicators ain't sayin' it - but I'm short since Friday night.
At least for a wee while :)

Harlosh,

I'd be interested in your take of the P&F chart this morning. I don't know if you had your charts open yesterday, but the feed was working throughout the day and then seemed to switch off yesterday evening and remove all of the data for the day including the high above 1.84. The historical data for yesterday is not available today and the fresh data only seems to start from midnight.

The effect of these missing columns has been to keep the price action above the rising trend line on the 1 minute since Thursday. Obviously it's going up again this morning, so it's possibly not that major an issuse but the chart would look completely different if the data were complete. Certainly, the uptrend would have been broken during the pullback yesterday pm and evening and I don't know whether or not the subsequent downtrend would have also yet been broken if you understand what I mean.