The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

someone over on another thread e-mailed PET about the concern in the SP, and asked if it were possible for them to release some sort of RNS.

see below

Emailed Petrel asking if they could release any calming news to help this volatile share price. Also told them how it was stessing us all out.

There reply was: KEEP THE FAITH

sounds promising.

Another e-mail from David Horgan has been posted on the advfn thread by CW a regular poster over there, it reads similiar to the one I received the other day, no reason to doubt it is not genuine, but please feel free to check it out with PET, see below for e-mail

I have just received this reply from DH and he gave permision to publish it...



>From: "David Horgan"
>To: "*****************
>Subject: RE: Petrel Resources
>Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 12:49:34 +0100
>
>Dear ****
>Everything proceeds as indicated in our last communications:
>The Iraqi delegation are exploration experts from the Ministry of Oil.
>We are swapping ideas, building relationships, updating them on some
>recent techniques they were not very familiar with (because of the
>embargo, etc.). They are highly motivated and excellent people
>committed to building their industry. They are also meeting with our
>geological suppliers & sub-contractors. This is normal due diligence
>and they seem very satisfied.
>The current plan is for my chief geologist and country manager to
>accompany them to Baghdad for further discussions when we are finished
>in Europe.
>They are very professional and dedicated - we are delighted with
>progress.
>
>We are finalising our delegation to the Middle East this week end for
>negotiations on the oil field development. Everything is on track, but
>it needs a lot of preparation.
>
>I understand that the share price has been volatile - both up and down.
>This has no significance at all for our business: it is merely the
>market trying to assess risks vs. rewards. I'm sure the market will
>find its own level. If we deliver on Petrel's potential, the share
>price will look after itself.
>
>Everyone has been very positive.
>Regards,
>David Horgan
>MD
>Petrel

Tokyo,
I saw that and pasted it on advfn,do you think it`s real?,not that it says much, i can`t believe the stick you got about your e-mail from DH. Are you worried too much about the price at the moment?
I got the jitters yesterday, but only because i wanted to cash some in and trade FOGL if poss.,but never mind
dexter

I expected stick about the e-mail as it was exteremly positive, but as I knew it came from DH, all I had to say was check it out for yourself, and as you know PET verified it was true to quite a few of the posters on the BB's. I hope someone verifies Citywhispers e-mail as that looks even better than the one I received, If possible could you ring them dexter? To be honest I don't doubt it, but always better to verify
p.s. if the above e-mail is verified then my answer is that I am in no way worried about the sp, and will be trying to put some more cash together to top up if possible

Tokyo

Tokyo,
I just rang PET regarding the E-mail to CW,it was confirmed as expected.
I asked if DH was going to Iraq this week, she could`nt say, but she did say again that evrything is going well and th Iraqi`s are meeting with various people and going on field trips as well as some sightseeing.
apologies to CW for any doubt, but ist is always better to check.

ps.i think(hope)i pulled!!!, you can`t beat a soft irish accent.

We may be getting some support. Now that MM.s realise alot more sellers than buyers are emerging they do not want to take it too far. They did not make their bucks on the way up because a lot of people were already in at a low price but they have done their job on the way down.z Ps Do people not think the email indicates a longer cycle than we all thought

Tokyo,

In your expert opinion, how far do you think this share is going to go down????????

rkausar,
In my humble opinion i don`t think it will go below around 83p, my thinking on this is that this is the figure on the powerpoint presentation.But with this share anything can happen, just wish i had the balls to sell at 130p and bought back at todays low!!. hindsight is such a wonderful thing.

I really can`t see PET not getting the first contract at the very least,there is too much positive feeling in the RNS`s,if they were`nt virtually sure, they would say nothing.IMHO

regards,
dexter

rkausar - 13 Oct'04 - 16:19 - 564 of 565

Tokyo,

In your expert opinion, how far do you think this share is going to go down????????


Rkausar - Really I'm no expert, I've dealt with some great shares over the last 18 months, but nothing as volitile as PET is at the moment, the bottom in this SP is really hard to call at the moment without really knowing what is bringing it down, is it

a. T traders having to close their positions
b. Institutions trying to bring down the SP to get some protective buys in
c Private investors locking in their profits, and in doing so spooking other smaller investors into selling
d The market adjusting to risk/reward ratio of PET

My opinion is that it is mainly the latter with a little of the others thrown in. In the absence of news this share price has had to fall back, I think you will find 80/83 pence as the bottom, but beware PET are getting untold e-mails requesting an rns, so one could be issued to calm the SP, one could also be issued to say their cheif geologist is now in Iraq continuing negioations, they have already issued one talking about urgent discussions
This share really is like nothing I have ever dealt with before, the one thing I am feeling confident about is that PET will be awarded the 1st contract, the only question is when!!!
PET shares should be bought on an ordinary trade and not on a T3 or T10. I'm happy to sit with my holdings until they announce, although that is not to say that my nerves will not be taking an absolute hammering along the way.

Tokyo

p.s. dexter - thanks for the confirmation

I have sold off today locking some profit...seems likely to go down further tomorrow. Now 88p

Thanx Dexter and Tokyo,

Well my heart does sink everytime the price goes down and i've come to the point that I dread looking at the computer screen. One can only wait and pray!!!!!! Good luck to all!!!

pets share price is being rerated, its found a top @ 1:60 and is now looking for a bottom ??, when a share is being rerated it will always go higher than it should and then lower than it should so for example if pet bottoms @80p the price should steadily rise to 1:20 and stay at this level until further news

Writing as a new boy on the block! Invested / gambled 5K+ at average 128p a few days ago. So, what is my reaction to the share price coming back. Not a problem! May be an opportunity. Have just got up-to-date with the bb and observed the agonising going on. My perspective:

1. Readers do know a surprising amount about the current position. In particular, Tokyo's posts give us a pretty well up-to-date scenario. This is, in one respect, comforting. In another respect it could be worrying. What competition is there? Competition would not be doing their job if they were not aware of these posts. It will help their own trading position. They could also 'suggest' that PET were breaking confidences and attempt to undermine their relationship of confidence with the Iraq minsitry. On balance, I suspect that PET are in a contract negotiation stage and have seen off the competition (what I would call an A1 prospect). As a sales manager, I have seen too many A1 contracts fall through, so would not spend the money in advance. The other thing that we need to hold in mind is that we are dealing with the Irish - everything is up-front; their relationship with others is key; but they may just be a tad optimistic (by the way, my in-laws were Irish and I loved them both dearly, most of all my mother-in-law!).

2. Looking at the trades for the last few days reveals a surprising fact. Buys and sells are largely in balance although the price has fallen 35%. What is the explanation? A suggestion was made above that the MM's, those sinister people who do not venture into the light of day, are locking away stock so that they can make a mint when the announcement(s) is/are made. I 'believe' that these are honest 'brokers' who are trying to make a decent living like the rest of us. The most likely explantion is that they have brought the price down to match buying and selling in order to make a turn and also to avoid holding too much stock (would underline that if I had the facility available). So how do you interpret the trading. You only need to read this thread for the explanation: (1) Some people are sitting on big profits and want to take some or all because of the downside risk; (2) Some people are of nervous disposition and only just realising that this is a form of gambling; (3) The price has had to be brought down to encourage buys to match the sells - we are in a sort of limbo land where the dangling carrot is moving ahead of us at the same speed as that at which we are riding.

3. So where the price from here? Lets say we are two weeks away from a decision. If there is no decision, or if it is negative, (10% for an A1 prospect) then you lose most or all of your money. If you can't stand that 10% probability (underlined) then sell tomorrow. If there is a positive decision, which will certainly include spreading the risk at a % of the value to PET, then there will be financials quotedto assess the value. I suspect it can't be worth less than 250p which would put it on a par with SEY (any reason for it to be more or less, anyone?), i.e. a cap. of 150m. Could be a lot more but Tokyo's posts suggest of that order. So it is 90% an upside of the order of 200%, 10% a downside of, lets say, nil. Many of us are comfortable with playing the risks. If you are not, take your profits now! If you are, run them!

My own position is to give it another day, anyway, see where the price has gone and then, quite possibly, transfer some of the equivalent 'risk' funds invested / 'somewhat less gambled' in PCI and/or SEY to PET,

Good luck, all! You need to say that to fellow gamblers!

Eric

Have seen all this before. the dramatic increase was unsustainable. I have sympathy with all those who bought in at the top. We have all made mistakes like these in the past. looking at the chart I think it will go down a lot more. I was considering buying these on the way up when they rose from 29+ to 40+. Even this rise was too much too quick and was unsustainable. after this I took it off my watch list as i knew what was going to happen. a massive rise followed by a massive drop and plenty punters getting burnt.

Buy high, buy low it doesn't matter until the announcement is made. If they win the contract which everybody hopes the shares will fly.

I wish I could agree the shares will fly I really do I really do but the over-speculation has reached such a feverpitch that I doubt the stock will get even get back to 150p even with positive news. I have no interest either way as would never invest behind such a volatile and unpredictable stock in such wild trading. Agree with Azhar's comments - unsustainable and not helped by quite wild unsubstantiated ramps - long watched the am boards with a high degree of respect for posters who really understand the fundamentals of the market but this thread is a shocking reminder of the perils of falling for the hype. Amazing to read all the personalised David Horgan emails - this guy clearly has a lot of spare time on his hands, right.

You can't apply TA to a share which has went up on rumour, the same applies when it spiked up.I still say because the shift in ratio is to the sellers the mms will allow Pet to consolodate not far from this level for now.

joehargan
totally agree,an excellent post.no bias just level headed.
however if a contract were announced in PETS favour i do beleive it would beat recent end of day highs,but only just.the downside in the next month with ramadam looming,the possibility of no news could be disasterous.this share has been ramped to the hilt.myself bought57p sold 106p,may throw some into RAB its just broken out and with a 40% holding in FOGL who float tommorrow

I think you are all very brave!

Appears to have found it's floor at about 82p maybe time to start buying a few.