Bioprogress is a stock I have been in and out of quite a few times since it floated in May but not much mention here on the Investors' Room. Does anyone else follow this stock. I see it is up 1.5p today and a few good buyers seem to have appeared.

turned against this one lately?

Its gone down from one pound and 60 pence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and over some time too now.

Does anyone have a clue why this share is garbage now as its lost more than half of its recent high.

Are we going down towards 40p??

Expect a retract back to 1 before the week is out. Good news on the way. Hold tight.

Brokers note? :))

Strange! A post of mine in April mentioned a brokers note on this thread, is it the same one? Holding tight......to my money...

One of the most bearish charts around IMO.

Any news will have to be exceptional to get this back to a quid any time soon. Never say never, but...................

Just had RNS about shares, can't determine if sold or bought but indications that the founder of company has dumped 67% of holdings? If so what does the future hold, I hold shares at present...

He has sold 560,000 still has 3,437,093

Ok not so bad then he's entitled to get some cash, lol.

He's a bit slow getting rid of them if that's right....

.......unless he knows something no-one else does.

:-0

Urmmmm. Where did he B Muncaster, get the cash to buy shares in BPRG? Apparently they keep saying the directors put their houses in hock and used their credit cards to keep the company 'running' a while back.

10m shares had to be paid for from somewhere?

As has been said the sale of 560,000 shares doesn't look to be what most shareholders will appreciate, especially as it take him below the 3% threshold, he can if he wishes, sell without a declaration from now on I believe! I'm thankful I don't hold them!

As a Director I think he still has to say if he sells, the 3% is only if someone is building a stake but no personal involvment in the co. - someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Only 13000 posts on BPRG over the road since I last looked at the thread!

He's NOT a director SC. The 3% applies to every/anyone. He can do what he wants now, hence maybe, the sale of 560,000 and not 500,000?

He appears keen by that trade, to get below 3%? Ominous?

Don't listen to this arsehole,he's from advfn and seemingly been told to piss off from there.All is well and expect rns tomorrow.

hope so nemo as i'm on a big loss on this as i bought at just more than 100p

Very ominous! ;-)

Thanks Nematode, lets keep fingers crossed for the RNS...

No disrespect to anyone, but this is a very bearish chart. The price is even well through the 200d SMA, which is a major indicator for choosing bull or bear. I use the settings below to trade. The dead cross coincided with the fall through 100p, which itself had been a strong support level.

BPRG is now at a critical stage IMO. If 60p goes (the congested area prior to the breakout), then 40p and even 20p may come very quickly indeed.

Any RNS will need to be very good indeed to turn this chart.



Anyway, best of luck to you, but I'm afraid not for me.

Al

Big Al, keep a close eye on the chart tomorrow ;)

Big Al
Am most impressed with the pretty chart. Hate to see it go to 20p as I'd be far too tempted to buy some more and I've got too many already. :-) or should it be :-(

hushpuppy - I might be tempted to buy there too, John. ;-))

Aerotus - will do! ;-0

Conrad Windham (Guest Author)

April 7 2004

It is not an enviable position to be in, that is, of the analyst whose job it is to compile a report on BioProgress right now. Only this weekend I stumbled across an old announcement from March 2000, where BioProgress had signed an agreement with JT USA, and Dye Precision to develop a new type of paintball using the XGel technology. It was a reminder of just how revolutionary and extensive this technology truly is.

This article is not a stab at forecasting a value for the whole of BioProgress, but rather to concentrate on the recent acquisition of the edible film assets of Aquafilm. The completion of this acquisition was announced to the market on 1st April, and the acquired assets are now a wholly owned subsidiary of BioProgress called BioFilm LLC.

CEO Graham Hind already had a working relationship with Aquafilm prior to the acquisition, as the company had been a third party film supplier to BioProgress. Therefore when Hind was made aware that the owners of Aquafilm, who were in their late 60s and wished to retire, were prepared to sell the business he moved swiftly to secure the edible film division.

The terms of acquiring the edible film assets of Aquafilm look to be very shrewd indeed. The deal comprises an upfront payment of $3.5 million and $7.5 million as an earn-out on a $1/$1 basis against net profit. Full purchase completion is anticipated to be made by 2006.

It is worth taking a look at Aquafilms forecasts for the edible film division:

Year To 31st December
US $ Million 2004e 2005e 2006e 2007e
Revenue 8.8 16.5 28.9 48.1
Net Profit 3.2 5.2 9.1 16.1
Profit Margin 36% 32% 32% 34%

These forecasts are ideal for showing just how profitable BioProgress should be in three years time come 2007. The forecast of $16.1 million profit on $48.1 million of turnover equates, at todays exchange rate to 8.78 million. Ignore the XGel technologies and assume that BioProgress comprised just the edible film division of Aquafilm. Profit of 8.78 million equates to EPS of 7.8p and puts BioProgress on a 2007 PE of 13.

This forecast PE excludes both of the current XGel licensing agreements. When factoring in the licensing deal with FMC BioPolymer for NROBE which is expected to generate a minimum of $160 million of revenue to BioProgress over the first six years following commercialisation, we can begin to appreciate the potential revenues that BioProgress should be generating in just three years time.

Current customers of Aquafilm include the following:

Procter & Gamble The Vic Vapour Strip
Boots Vitamin Strips
Colgate Teeth Whitening
Pepsico Breath Freshening Strips
Reckitts Mouth Ulcer Strips
Home Market Foods Nutrastrips
Healthy Moments Spiderman

Hind has already thought of a new market for Aquafilm to target, pets. It has always been notoriously difficult to get an animal to swallow a tablet, but the chances are a meaty flavoured strip will go down well, perhaps even considered a treat by the animal.

The cost of acquiring Aquafilm and bringing it up to a high standard is not a massive drain on BioProgress cash resources. With the recent exercise of the warrants there was 18 million in the bank; 4 million of this will be spent on Aquafilm. $3.5 million on the initial purchase, $1 million of working capital and $3 million capital investment in order to secure full FDA Pharmaceutical plant approval to exploit the new WAFERTAB technology.

The next two months sees the launch of two of the new edible food strip products in America. Spiderman vitamin strips are being launched in May for the new Spiderman 2 movie, and Home Market Foods launch their Nutrastrips, available in different varieties such as Immune Boosting, Caffeinated, Vitamin or Energizing. Combined the sales forecast for these two products is $4.7 million. In the UK Boots have recently launched vitamin strips. Revenue from the new acquisition is already rolling in.

There is an interesting twist with the acquisition of the Aquafilm assets. BioProgress have a court case pending against Stanelco with regard to entitlement to key patents and patent applications in the portfolio of Stanelco. Although it should be noted that BioProgress are insulated from the costs by an insurance policy. Stanelco have a major contract with the R P Scherer division of Cardinal Health to develop its Ingel technology, the only place where Stanelco can get hold of the required film is Aquafilm. A clause in the contract with Stanelco allows Scherer to cancel its contract in July. It is now apparent why Stanelco pushed for a court date in September, the fact that it is set for July allows Scherer to break its ties with Stanelco, should it lose the court case.

The Aquafilm acquisition therefore strengthens the strategic position of BioProgress, brings in immediate revenues and profits, accelerates the development of WAFERTAB, and accelerates the film supply for FMC BioPolymer as well as accelerating the US film supply for TABWRAP. All in all then, a terrific acquisition which helps to highlight why BioProgress remains cheap.

It should be noted that Conrad holds shares in BioProgress.

Related links:

Bioprogress orginal feature

Results

BPRG FMC

October 3 2003

November 12 2003

December 3 2003

Febuary 19 2004

February 23 2004
http://www.lemminginvestor.com/BPRGconradWindham.html