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Northern Rock (NRK)     

irlee57 - 13 Aug 2007 09:03

any comments, thoughts, on this stock.

cynic - 02 Oct 2007 08:57 - 566 of 1029

not rumour ... it's in Telegraph this morning

Big Al - 02 Oct 2007 08:57 - 567 of 1029

NRK only the tip of the iceberg IMO. ECB keep things quieter I believe

hewittalan6 - 02 Oct 2007 09:16 - 568 of 1029

So if it is not rumour, then the smart money will be looking for the similar models to short, because even if it is kept mum for now, it must be reported at some stage, even if only on the results.
On the high street, I will go against conventional wisdom and go for HBOS (only with play money - I don't generally short). Off the high street, I will have an each way bet on a rank outsider - GMAC-RFC, wholly owned by General Motors.
Ladies and Gents, place your bets for a very interesting banking season!!!

EDIT - And the announcement of a review of the FSA, followed by a break up of what it regulates into seperate authorities - back to the 80's!!

partridge - 02 Oct 2007 09:32 - 569 of 1029

The BOS part of HBOS has been very aggressive in the corporate leveraged debt field, so if you add in possible problems at Birmimgham Midshires, you may be right Alan. I have a feeling that this issue has surfaced just in time to save the whole sector from meltdown and that the recent knocks to the bank shares might provide a good buying opportunity for the patient. If only we knew......

hewittalan6 - 02 Oct 2007 09:51 - 570 of 1029

In hindsight, we all have 20/20 vision, and looking back at my analogy of a mortgage book being comparable to a bond, we should have seen it coming long ago. After all, a sub prime or delinquent or low rate mortgage book is no more than a junk bond, and look what happened to them. And the repurcussions afterwards.
Scary if it played out fully.
Alan

Balmoral - 02 Oct 2007 11:15 - 571 of 1029

rumour that shares are being called in - don't know why? - therefore I've closed short

cynic - 02 Oct 2007 11:40 - 572 of 1029

wonder if that is a move prior to formal suspension ...... seems the most likely, though do not understand what is meant by "called in" as if someone has a short option or cfd it is not subject to arbitrary cancellation by the stock-lender

Strawbs - 02 Oct 2007 11:48 - 573 of 1029

I assume (but could be wrong) that people (institutions) who have lent out shares (for the purposes of shorting) have called them in (i.e. want them back).

Only guessing though....

Perhaps someone better informed could comment.

Strawbs

fliper - 02 Oct 2007 13:54 - 574 of 1029

These are high risk , money can be made but only if you get in at the right price . I am glad that i was on the golf course yesterday , otherwise i my had got in at 1.30 .

maddoctor - 02 Oct 2007 14:14 - 575 of 1029

the rumour is a rescue at 175

skinny - 02 Oct 2007 14:46 - 576 of 1029

Looking at the rule 8 RNS - Barclays have been busy.

explosive - 02 Oct 2007 16:57 - 577 of 1029

Stop loss hit at around lunch time, thats me out the game.... Will watch with interest....

cynic - 02 Oct 2007 17:17 - 578 of 1029

i have kept all my short positions open, but with a guaranteed stop - well worth the very small premium .... if this rumoured 175 bid is shown to have any substance, then sp will be rocket, but i shall be out with a very nice profit, albeit only 40/60% of what it was notionally at say 9 o'clock this morning ..... if the rumour is groundless, and there is certainly no follow-up statement, then sp will plunge once more

Big Al - 02 Oct 2007 18:04 - 579 of 1029

I've mentione dthat 175p area was significant 10 days ago. It was awhile before she plummeted through. There's something significant there anyway. Bigger volume today than we've had since last Monday, which may be another indicator.

As for me, I'm completely flat NRK. Took a hit in the SIPP, but made a fair bit of it up trading both ways last week via spreadbets and CFDs.

Congrats to those who took the longer term short route as opposed to us in/out types. Nice profits, but I suspect the game's almost over now.



Who's next though, I wonder. ;-))

cynic - 02 Oct 2007 18:42 - 580 of 1029

bigger volume today will prob just be an indication of peeps taking profits or protecting their position - much the same thing.

with regard to this rumoured bid, it is just that, but even if true in principal, it is certainly not yet a formal approach and the books have clearly to be opened up ...... were it otherwise, an rns would have been mandatory.

tomorrow promises another interesting day!

skinny - 03 Oct 2007 08:08 - 581 of 1029

Northern Rock to meet JC Flowers for takeover talks


LONDON (Thomson Financial) - JC Flowers is to meet advisers of Northern Rock
for talks that could lead to the embattled bank opening its books to the private
equity group, the Financial Times reported.
Flowers, founded by former Goldman Sachs banker Chris Flowers, has secured
about 15 bln stg of funding that could be used for a takeover, the newspaper
claimed.
The private equity group is interested in keeping Northern Rock as a whole
entity and is understood to have received funding commitments from blue chip
banks, the FT said.
The cash could be used to refinance part of the estimated 20 bln stg that
analysts believe the bank will need to raise in the next year, the report said.
Northern Rock shares have lost more than 80 pct of their value since the
bank revealed on Sept 14 that this summer's global credit crunch had forced it
to seek emergency funding from the Bank of England.
On Tuesday night, the shares closed up 3.5 pence at 135.6 p amid market
rumours an unidentified party is preparing a rescue bid of 175 pence per share.
philip.waller@thomson.com


hlyeo98 - 03 Oct 2007 08:12 - 582 of 1029

I think it will not sustain above 145p today.

cynic - 03 Oct 2007 08:30 - 583 of 1029

i tend to agree hyleo, though my stop was hit (145) and i am now out with a very acceptable profit ...... there is certainly no indication that the shareholders will ultimately receive anything once all is unwound ..... indeed, i would not have been at all surprised had the NRK opened down by as much as it opened up! ...... anyway, no time to enter the fray in either direction for the moment, and perhaps not at all

Guscavalier - 03 Oct 2007 09:17 - 584 of 1029

Reference to hewittalan6 post 563, Mortgage Express is wholly owned by Bradford and Bingley.

cynic - 03 Oct 2007 10:28 - 585 of 1029

it seems to me that, always subject to an unequivocal offer being put on the table, once sp gets above about 160 it becomes a progressively more interesting short.
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